Phil Steele's Magazine

I've been going over it since I got it, and I'm concerned that some of his

info may not be consistent with all of the Transfer Portal information that

I am also tracking .In his Experience chart , he mentions  that it is current

as of 6 / 6 and that at some point he will provide an update that accounts

for transfer players that have earned a starting job on a team's roster.

He mentions that the update will be available on 7 /17, so at this point I'm

thinking that it pays to use  caution in how you utilize his experience chart

and it's weighting in your capping decisions. I will continue to use my other

sources for 2 deeps and roster information , as I think this is helpful in

accurately determining the makeup of rosters in the Transfer Portal era.

Good Luck

Can you send a digital pdf on here for us so we can fact check your information?

Rather than asking someone to do the work for you. I suggest that you take

the time and make the effort to perform a thorough and complete analysis on

this subject. When you are finished , please feel free to go fact check yourself.

Good Luck

mate, 

i think he just wanted the mag for free...

Then he came to the wrong place .     

@steponaduck

 He was a little slow on understanding that joke. 

Gotta be a near impossible task for him now to get roster info accurate with the late portal opening.  I'll still pick one up for the collection though

Yep, There's still a lot of great info in his magazine. 

To me, there are others that provide more useful information for the punters.

He's an information source - use his info for what it is ...... the best post-spring breakdown for each team that exists. IGNORE his predictions FFS.

If his mag didn't exist?  whaddya gonna do - go to EACH team's website - piece together a depth chart based on 'news' reports? Go to local papers - figure out how to get beyond their paywall?  Note he's also really good at (predicting) who will start.

He can get a sit-down with most every coach in the country. The problem with his magazine is that he no coming approaches his preview CRITICALLY - from a handicapping perspective - he's more of a cheerleader trying to sell magazines (and service). Tho to his credit, he's added a ton of ATS spots in each team's writeup.....

SO ....after you read a preview of each team, you will likely find yourself coming away feeling pretty good about that team's chances - "THEY WILL BE IMPROVED" - great for selling mags, but that's burning money territory for handicappers.   

Absolutely BA  i pummeled through my Athlon and learned a lot for $8.99 ha! Information reaches the island s slowly 

BA sums it up well . I use other sources than PS for updated depth charts,

that also include TP info , and I do not recommend using his Power Ratings 

as a capping strategy either. The TP has changed the way I collect capping

data to have info in my hands before openers come out. These days opening

lines are up before PS goes to print , and you can use that to possibly find

some wagering value in the process.

I've bought one every year on principal and general interest.  Probably actionable intel on the MAC and non power-fives.  Hard to plunk the $$ down if NIL and the portal have things so scrambled it's hard to sort thru it.  The big boys are discussed endlessly by the nine million internet 'experts'

I have noticed a few more mistakes .....

eg.  so Ark State was only 3-9 LY?  > nope 6-6 + lost bowl  - BTW probably a team to play on (tho if like me and ignored them LY, they were +100 ATS after week 2, so maybe value lost or gone?) - beat the hell out of Tx St and ULL, covering by 75 pts .....

 ........ I see a lot of attacks on Steele every year >> don't be a simple minded 'anti-expert' type guy (questioning the experts is fine).  A 15 year+ year trend I've noticed, I guess with the rise in SM 'experts' - all telling us what we want to hear. Who TF wants to listen to a research based clinical nutritionist telling us to eat a plant based diet - of fruits/veg./ some grilled fish and chicken + occasional red meat ..... when a gym rat getting rich off YT hits tells us to shove red meat down our pie holes like there's no tomorrow? NO GUY under the age of 50 ha.

Moral? - pay attention to guys that live CFB and know what they're talking about - guys like Steele and Bill Connelly. Consider their opinions sure, but learn to use their info, and form YOUR OWN OPINIONS. If you find a 125 lb., 20 year old YouTuber math wiz, with a man-bun and a civil war cosplay beard, that crushes the analytics and presents OBJECTIVE data? fine ha   

BTW - the 95% here shaking their head on diet - it's about GI health and motility / gut microbiome, and gut/BRAIN connection - far beyond the scope of bro-science.           

Good stuff bud, There are very few " Experts " that I seek opinion  from , and I'm

not gonna beat on yer boy BC again. I do respect the opinion of certain people

that not only offer opinion , but who actually wager on CFB as well .

Paul Stone comes to mind as one that fits this category. Mostly though , I use the

same tried and true method that has served me well over the past 40 seasons.

That is breaking down all 134 teams by my own rather stringent methods , and

arriving at a conclusion that has proven reliable in the past. Opinions are easy to

formulate and don't require much effort to generate. But if I'm going to put capital

at risk , I will trust in what has worked for me in the past , and hopefully leave the

opinions for the Oddsmakers. I've found some great bargains in the past using

that strategy.

BA  , Blessings and Good Luck this season , my friend    

[Quote: Originally Posted by WISEGUY36]Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin: I have noticed a few more mistakes ..... eg.  so Ark State was only 3-9 LY?  > nope 6-6 + lost bowl  - BTW probably a team to play on (tho if like me and ignored them LY, they were +100 ATS after week 2, so maybe value lost or gone?) - beat the hell out of Tx St and ULL, covering by 75 pts .....    ........ I see a lot of attacks on Steele every year >> don't be a simple minded 'anti-expert' type guy (questioning the experts is fine).  A 15 year+ year trend I've noticed, I guess with the rise in SM 'experts' - all telling us what we want to hear. Who TF wants to listen to a research based clinical nutritionist telling us to eat a plant based diet - of fruits/veg./ some grilled fish and chicken + occasional red meat ..... when a gym rat getting rich off YT hits tells us to shove red meat down our pie holes like there's no tomorrow? NO GUY under the age of 50 ha. Moral? - pay attention to guys that live CFB and know what they're talking about - guys like Steele and Bill Connelly. Consider their opinions sure, but learn to use their info, and form YOUR OWN OPINIONS. If you find a 125 lb., 20 year old YouTuber math wiz, with a man-bun and a civil war cosplay beard, that crushes the analytics and presents OBJECTIVE data? fine ha              BTW - the 95% here shaking their head on diet - it's about GI health and motility / gut microbiome, and gut/BRAIN connection - far beyond the scope of bro-science.  

Excuse my last post , It would not let me correct it.

Good stuff bud, There are very few " Experts " that I seek opinion  from ,

and I'm not gonna beat on yer boy BC again. I do respect the opinion of

certain people that not only offer opinion , but who actually wager on CFB

as well . Paul Stone comes to mind as one that fits this category.

Mostly though , I use the same tried and true method that has served me

well over the past 40 seasons. That is breaking down all 134 teams

by my own rather stringent methods , and arriving at a conclusion that has

proven reliable in the past. Opinions are easy to formulate and don't require

much effort to generate. But if I'm going to put capital at risk , I will trust

in what has worked for me in the past , and hopefully leave the opinions for

the Oddsmakers. I've found some great bargains in the past using that strategy.

BA  , Blessings and Good Luck this season , my friend       

FWIW , I am a firm believer that success is more likely to come if all teams

are compared to the same exact standard. Makes it much easier to determine

WP on a matchup. The more points of comparison , the more accurate your

conclusion is likely to be. I highly recommend that game management be an

integral part on your comparative analysis. It is no secret that most of the

Top 15 teams are leaders in this category.

Good Luck

Yep.  " The harder you work , The Luckier you'll get "    

A major problem when making a casual judgement on the 'experts'?

   >> a failure to understand probability / law of averages / law of large numbers

Guys that put their opinion out there often, are wrong - ALL THE DAMN TIME.  So many conclude, they know less.  wut

STEELE - grades every player, every unit of every team - makes predictions on every game played.  So he's an 'idiot' every day practically.

Bill C - gives a number value to every facet of every game, every team.  Looking at efficiency, SOS ++. Ultimate goal is removing / reducing subjectivity in predicting outcomes. Perfect? - no but a better way. Before he 'sold out' ha and was at SBNation, and published all his numbers - an incredible handicapping tool. Before BC and Brian Fremeau (FEI), we used yd/ attempt, yd/game only.  BUT, is Michigan the nation's 6th best team (per SP+)? - probably not.  For teams undergoing a ton of changes - give him a few weeks to catch up. The problem is you have to use (some) of last year's numbers as a base - you can't just arbitrarily go in and make corrections.         

Same here in these forums.  Guys that make picks every week, for years - are wrong a ton of course. Guys that make a few picks here and there (nothing wrong with that BTW) might be an idiot, or a genius it's hard to tell right?. Follow the guys that put in the work. Use their info - make your own picks, and FFS don't be a child and blame THEM when YOU are wrong.  

For me, I like guys that watch a lot of film (all-22), subscribe to data services that I don't, and have the ability to talk to coaches and beat writers.  Guys that are too subjective - I simply ignore. I'm old af yes ... but can't imagine a world where I follow a total stranger online - risk my hard earned money - then blame THEM when I'm wrong. Man that's some backwards ass hillbilly type stuff there ha.....  

Yeah , It's too bad that BC went " Pro " and sold out to ESPN , but he's 

realizing that in today's betting environment , Information is of some

value to bettors.

Especially to bettors that are unwilling to make the effort to perform the

analytics themself,They rely on information that they have not personally

validated on their their own and yet they are willing to risk capital on what

someone else tells them.

I remember taking a lot of heat on the Forum the year I verified and

posted the actual accuracy of BC's preseason SP + season projections

for all teams.

To use BC's data as a sole source of capping info , when his accuracy

rate on his preseason projections are only 52 % accurate does not make

sense to me.

I will let BC and PS hopefully influence the more novice bettors out there,

and maybe an Oddsmaker or two , and hopefully find a few plays that I

think are mispriced according to my work , and maybe scoop up a bargain

in the process.

Bud , I totally agree with you on the value and importance of watching as

much game footage as one possibly can. Especially now early in the season.

In Week 1 , I'll be watching games of teams I may look to bet in Week 2.

Lot of teams have changed dramatically for a number of different reasons.

This season there is a lot more to think about before making a wager.

BA,

@WISEGUY36

Steele usually doesn't make errors w/ the coordinators (or at least he used to not make many that I stumbled across).

He's got Tyler Stockton as Ball State's DC. Stockton was hired by Boise State in Dec '23 as their safeties coach/co-DC. Ball State announced Jeff Knowles (who was DC at Bultler '22-'23) as its new DC in early January.

Nice Work, Thanks. I've got Knowles confirmed by a second source as well.

Thanks for sharing  

@WISEGUY36

 Not sure where to ask, but Phil Steele has a section in the magazine called "Upset Meter"...what exactly is the calculation that goes into that? For example on his site, he has Missouri as +4 in the "Going Down". In going up, he has Wisconsin -4 in "Going Up"...what is his formula? Gracias.

@WISEGUY36

 I just it. Totally sucks for transfer info. Just have to read each position group on each team he says who the transfers coming in to help etc. 

@WISEGUY36

 He lazy. All he would have to do is make a page in transfers