All Forums | College Football

Pitt vs Navy Write up

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3640
Posts: 39
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #1
First thing, big props to Keenan Reynolds. Dude is a stud and has left his mark on college football forever. He's a proven winner and I'm glad he'll be leading this country's defenses someday. 


On to the game, I'm torn because in my heart I want to see Navy win and Reynolds go out on top. In my head, this isn't a good matchup for Navy. I know everyone is slobbering over this Pitt run defense but Pitt has the advantage. They've already faced a similar style triple option with Ga Tech......GA Tech just has bigger RBs and better OL. Also you can't look past the fact that Narduzzi is a stud coach especially with defenses. You can bet that Pitt will play alignment, assignment football this afternoon. 


I know Navy has the HFA and the better QB in this game but there is more to a game than that.

Navy's DL is going to be severely undermanned in this game against the size of Pitt. Navy is going to have to make a decision in this game, put 8 people in the box and leave a single CB on Boyd's side, or play 2 high safeties to help cover him and play with 6 or 7 in the box. 

Ollison is a load at RB for Pitt. He's just a freshmen but dude can go. 

Pitt has several things in their corner today, Navy has 2 (HFA and QB)

I like Pitt +3    Pitt ML +125

and I lean to the Over 52


Good luck to all. Hope everyone had a great Christmas and has a Happy New Year!! 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2013
Posts: 1197
Posted: #2
Good write up.

The line is sharp.

I may bypass this game.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 35
Posted: #3
Both teams rank in the bottom of Offensive possessions per game, I could only think that plays for the under. Would like to see the total rise up before game time 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #4
Lean to the Over because, #1. It's a bowl game. Offense will take more shots. #2. Everyone and their mom is on the under. #3. Pitt should move the ball and Navy will get theirs too. Reynolds won't be shut out


Just some of my thoughts of why I lean Over. 


 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 12504
Posted: #5
Love your write up but EVERYONE IS IN THE OVER bud. 74% actually according to scoresandodds.com. With that many on the over, a lean towards the under might suffice. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 3724
Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Love your write up but EVERYONE IS IN THE OVER bud. 74% actually according to scoresandodds.com. With that many on the over, a lean towards the under might suffice. 

Taking a sample from a forum like this is far more accurate that some number plastered on scoresandodds.com.....
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 5575
Posted: #7
The O/U is mute in my opinion.  I also see 70% on the over - according to sportsinsighs - nothing new there, it is like that for almost any game.

I do like the play on Pitt.  This opened up at Navy -5 and was down to -3 within a short amount of time.  It appears that all books are now at -2.5 which is actually a big move from -3

I will have some action on Pitt because I think they have the best chance to win.  I don't take the ML simply because if I am offered 2.5 points I will gladly take it.  Insurance is a good thing for a tight game.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2003
Posts: 13864
Posted: #8

I'm on Pitt today as well.  I also like the Navy team total to stay UNDER 27.5.

 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Love your write up but EVERYONE IS IN THE OVER bud. 74% actually according to scoresandodds.com. With that many on the over, a lean towards the under might suffice. 

Sorry to burst your bubble bud, looking at a website for %'s isn't a good idea. Especially for O/U
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

The O/U is mute in my opinion.  I also see 70% on the over - according to sportsinsighs - nothing new there, it is like that for almost any game.

I do like the play on Pitt.  This opened up at Navy -5 and was down to -3 within a short amount of time.  It appears that all books are now at -2.5 which is actually a big move from -3

I will have some action on Pitt because I think they have the best chance to win.  I don't take the ML simply because if I am offered 2.5 points I will gladly take it.  Insurance is a good thing for a tight game.

Yea I hear ya on the ML. It's not great odds but I guess it shows how strongly I feel about Pitt winning the game. If I was worried about them losing, I would buy the hook and get 3.5 to be honest. 


Insurance is a good thing in a tight game though, you are 110% right. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 871
Posted: #11
Scores and Odds only represents one Bookie... Sportsbook.com. Hardly means "everyone."
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #12
Jimmy & Sports fan - Let's cash it!!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 5575
Posted: #13
I will wait until gametime... I think this line will bounce back to a legit +3
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 5575
Posted: #14
It is possible this will get back to +3.5

Navy is certainly the public side here, and those $$ will start to pour in the last couple hours before kickoff
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

It is possible this will get back to +3.5

Navy is certainly the public side here, and those $$ will start to pour in the last couple hours before kickoff

Very true and good point
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2006
Posts: 3251
Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Love your write up but EVERYONE IS IN THE OVER bud. 74% actually according to scoresandodds.com. With that many on the over, a lean towards the under might suffice.

Agreed navy is notorious for 5-6 min drives that often end in fg. The key is to win , not take chances airing it out just cus its a bowl game. Navy sticks to bread n butter n wins.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #17
Posted this in the CMU-Minny thread. This a scoring algorithm I've worked on. It's all based off stats. No personal opinion or football knowledge is placed in this. Purely #'s


For the Navy-Pitt game, These were the #'s

Navy-----29.2 
Pitt-------24.5
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #18
Last piece of info.


Navy's offense is #15 and Pitt is # 38 in S&P

S&P looks at offensive efficiency, explosiveness, and finishing drives. 

On flip side, Navy's D is #37 and Pitt is #44
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #19
Well that's a quick start 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #20
I really hope Pitt makes an adjustment to this 4-3 with the Mike playing QB.......


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #21
Narduzzi is great at halftime adjustments but I hope he changes the scheme on the sideline. The DL needs help with the dive.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 2055
Posted: #22
Pitt gave up 350+ rushing yards and 9+ YPC to Georgia Tech....
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 6686
Posted: #23
This is scary Pitt backers
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 2667
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by 3isLegit:

Pitt gave up 350+ rushing yards and 9+ YPC to Georgia Tech....

Are you serious?!?!
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2008
Posts: 2044
Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by green33:

This is scary Pitt backers

Its not scary at this point its just over I really had no clue Pitt's D was this BAD
All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.