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Pix Teaser Plays Week 7

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
Game of the year thread is all about Wisconsin
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:

Game of the year thread is all about Wisconsin

yup.....here is the link

 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:

Any NFL games you like yet Pix? All I got so far is the obvious Den O 40

I just realized that number is really high....is that in a 13 or 10 pt teaser?

I have 35.5 in the 13 pt tease but of course I got mine in on sunday.


 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:

I do kinda like that Duke Navy over mentioned above by knight - I think both teams score in the high 20's low 30's. I'm more concerned if Navy falls down early and has to pass to catch up...because they can't



everybody has there own style of how they mix there teasers up.
I tend to put ones that I am not sure about or have doubts about together in kind of '' im not going to be shocked or lose sleep if it does not hit'' teaser. wont be putting a large amount on it but still feel confident in it enough to risk something on it.

navy is the one I am worried about too in that game.
can they keep pace and score
navy avg 38 ppg/ navys d hold opponents to 17.8 ppg
duke avg. 36 ppg/ d sucks opponents avg. 28 ppg on them

the total is 57 -- teased down to 47 I think it goes over.
 
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Posted: #80
correction* navy is avg. 31 ppg

sounds a bit high .... but that is what I have got when I researched what they are averaging a game.


 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by knight703:




everybody has there own style of how they mix there teasers up.
I tend to put ones that I am not sure about or have doubts about together in kind of '' im not going to be shocked or lose sleep if it does not hit'' teaser. wont be putting a large amount on it but still feel confident in it enough to risk something on it.

navy is the one I am worried about too in that game.
can they keep pace and score
navy avg 38 ppg/ navys d hold opponents to 17.8 ppg
duke avg. 36 ppg/ d sucks opponents avg. 28 ppg on them

the total is 57 -- teased down to 47 I think it goes over.

While I respect everyone's opinion here.....I think the two best totals in terms of % of hitting:

UNDER UMASS 59.5
OVER Wisconsin 43.5

I mentioned the futility of umass above.

Now let's look at a few angles to support the wisc total:

1) Wisc duo backs avg 10 ypc & 7 ypc ; lots of first downs.
2) NW has allowed 27+ pts in 3 out of 5 games.
3) NW has scored 30+ in EVERY game this season
4) NW rushed 43 times for 93 yards against ohio state and was forced to throw the ball, Wisc has a better run defense.
5) Wisc faced not one but TWO rushing qbs in Ariz st & Ohio state.  Both rushed for 35 yards and under 100 yards.   The duo QB set with the running QB will be neutralized and they will be forced to be conventional.  

The last prediction I read was 45-31 wisconsin........I see it 41-24 and in the teaser of 44 points, I see over 30 coming in by halftime.


 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Pix:


While I respect everyone's opinion here.....I think the two best totals in terms of % of hitting:

UNDER UMASS 59.5
OVER Wisconsin 43.5

I mentioned the futility of umass above.

Now let's look at a few angles to support the wisc total:

1) Wisc duo backs avg 10 ypc & 7 ypc ; lots of first downs.
2) NW has allowed 27+ pts in 3 out of 5 games.
3) NW has scored 30+ in EVERY game this season
4) NW rushed 43 times for 93 yards against ohio state and was forced to throw the ball, Wisc has a better run defense.
5) Wisc faced not one but TWO rushing qbs in Ariz st & Ohio state.  Both rushed for 35 yards and under 100 yards.   The duo QB set with the running QB will be neutralized and they will be forced to be conventional.  

The last prediction I read was 45-31 wisconsin........I see it 41-24 and in the teaser of 44 points, I see over 30 coming in by halftime.




now I gotta unload on another teaser.
 how do you feel about wisc/over parlay straight no teased points
 
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Posted: #83
bears +5 or giants +21
like giants +21
 
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Posted: #84
thanks guys I really appreciate all the hard work and the intuitive approach to the teasers.  great job
 
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Posted: #85
Hey Pix I have alot of teasers that have the Seahawks as a PK and the Chiefs as getting 4.5 points. Should I worry that I put those 2 in about every teaser I have?
 
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Posted: #86

Pix,

If you like Unders, take a look at Texas state Under.  Let me know what you think. 

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by Pix:


While I respect everyone's opinion here.....I think the two best totals in terms of % of hitting:

UNDER UMASS 59.5
OVER Wisconsin 43.5

I mentioned the futility of umass above.

Now let's look at a few angles to support the wisc total:

1) Wisc duo backs avg 10 ypc & 7 ypc ; lots of first downs.
2) NW has allowed 27+ pts in 3 out of 5 games.
3) NW has scored 30+ in EVERY game this season
4) NW rushed 43 times for 93 yards against ohio state and was forced to throw the ball, Wisc has a better run defense.
5) Wisc faced not one but TWO rushing qbs in Ariz st & Ohio state.  Both rushed for 35 yards and under 100 yards.   The duo QB set with the running QB will be neutralized and they will be forced to be conventional.  

The last prediction I read was 45-31 wisconsin........I see it 41-24 and in the teaser of 44 points, I see over 30 coming in by halftime.



Opps, meant to say "both QBs combine for 35 rushes for less than 100 yards" in getting across the point that the running QB will more than likely be neutralized.


 
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Posted: #88
I think I am definitely digging that Miami OH and Mass game - can basically get it at under 60. Excellent research there
 
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Posted: #89
Pix -

So what are your most confident teaser plays for Saturday?

Thanks man and BOL as always 
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by bfritz:

Pix -

So what are your most confident teaser plays for Saturday?

Thanks man and BOL as always 

working like crazy now for tonight and saturday 

going to rack and stack the picks in regards to strength (covering probability) and found in number of teasers.

stay tuned to this channel 
 
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Posted: #91
Thursday card for me

Louisville/rutgers over
San diego over
Rutgers +29
Bears/giants over 37
1h louie over
 
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Posted: #92
 
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Posted: #93
Going with over 39 in arizona game 2 f it
 
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Posted: #94
I think I am starting to come around on the Wyoming and New Mexico over as well.

Wyoming has the 14th best pass offense along with the an average running attack averaging almost 200 yards on the ground per game. More importantly is they find away to score points - 37.6 PPG while allowing in the mid 20's. Some of their stats are skewed because of competition - let up 30+ to Nebraska.

New Mexico on the other hand is leading the nation in rushing yards at almost 370 yards per game. Also more importantly they are finding a way to reach the endzone averaging 38 PPG while allowing almost the same at 35.6.

However much like Navy I mentioned earlier New Mexico cannot pass the ball worth a lick averaging less than 100 yards passing per game. So if they get behind by 2 scores much like Navy they will still have to rely on their rushing attack to put up score to get this thing over. 

Still unsure but could tease this down to 55.5 but it would still be as likely to hit as the Duke Navy game in my eyes. 
 
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Posted: #95
Bfritz i hear you another shaky one.
Going to wait and see how tonight turns out if i get my head cracked im going to elimate shaky plays.
If not gonna roll the dice

Whats your card look like tonight bfritz
 
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Posted: #96
'Eliminate
 
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Posted: #97
slots123456
Rutgers ov 40.5 25
Bears ov 34.5 20
Rutgers +31.5 20
SD st Ov 38.5 15
USC +7.5 10
SD state +7.5 10


#1) Rutgers over 40.5: 26 scouts will be at the game to see Teddy Football.  He will not disappoint.  I see this to be a very high scoring affair as I posted the other day of my 10x monster lock on Over 27 first half.  Prediction: 43-20

#2) Bears over 34.5:  I am perfect on the year on the year betting against/for the bears (one of my two teams).   Three reasons this goes flying over.  1) When Jay cutler is not getting pressured he makes play and is confident in his 'shot'.  The Giants come in with 4 sacks on the season.....15 players in the nfl have 4 or more.  2) I have seen average QBs (dalton and ponder) shred the bear's secondary.  With wilson out I don't see them improving on their 50 yards rushing a game stat and will throw the ball 40 times again.  3) Bear's propensity to get the turnover and Giant's propensity to turn the ball over.

#3) Rutgers + 31.5: Not going to be one of my prettier covers, but a cover is a cover.  So many folks on rutgers here plus the points in a non-teaser think the game comes down to two touchdowns or less or the final drive to get the backdoor cover.  While I am not a as confident as most people here I can tell you even 52-21 is a cover and I think Rutgers gets 21 before lou gets 52 after the gun sounds.

#4) SD over 38.5 : what can you say about these two teams both are going to give up yards and points in bunches but I like the balance attack of SD.....young speedster can get to the edge and the big guy can carry it into the middle of the line for sizable gains in the running game.  This will open up the passing game.  Prediction: 27-20

#5) USC +7.5 : I like the running game and desperation angle of righting the ship plus the fact I get the hook with the TD.  Coupled with the fact that I a team that averages 100 yards passing (zona) should never be backed.

#6) SD st +7.5 : Another hook special....essentially 5/6 are interchangeable in regards to strength, someone has to be on the bottom.  USC made the cut because they are at home with something prove and SD st sleepwalked and was LOSING by double digits to New mex st at the half two weeks ago.

Good luck gents.

10x play again:  27 1st half OVER Louisville

Half time action can be found right here later.

 
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Posted: #98


wow....let's try that again...:

25 teasers, 4 teams, 100 slots total


strength         bet                              slots
     1           Rutgers ov 40.5              25
     2           Bears over 34.5              20
     3           Rutgers +31.5                 20
     4           SD st ov 38.5                  15
     5           USC +7.5                        10
     6           SD state +7.5                  10

#1) Rutgers over 40.5: 26 scouts will be at the game to see Teddy Football.  He will not disappoint.  I see this to be a very high scoring affair as I posted the other day of my 10x monster lock on Over 27 first half.  Prediction: 43-20

#2) Bears over 34.5:  I am perfect on the year on the year betting against/for the bears (one of my two teams).   Three reasons this goes flying over.  1) When Jay cutler is not getting pressured he makes play and is confident in his 'shot'.  The Giants come in with 4 sacks on the season.....15 players in the nfl have 4 or more.  2) I have seen average QBs (dalton and ponder) shred the bear's secondary.  With wilson out I don't see them improving on their 50 yards rushing a game stat and will throw the ball 40 times again.  3) Bear's propensity to get the turnover and Giant's propensity to turn the ball over.

#3) Rutgers + 31.5: Not going to be one of my prettier covers, but a cover is a cover.  So many folks on rutgers here plus the points in a non-teaser think the game comes down to two touchdowns or less or the final drive to get the backdoor cover.  While I am not a as confident as most people here I can tell you even 52-21 is a cover and I think Rutgers gets 21 before lou gets 52 after the gun sounds.

#4) SD over 38.5 : what can you say about these two teams both are going to give up yards and points in bunches but I like the balance attack of SD.....young speedster can get to the edge and the big guy can carry it into the middle of the line for sizable gains in the running game.  This will open up the passing game.  Prediction: 27-20

#5) USC +7.5 : I like the running game and desperation angle of righting the ship plus the fact I get the hook with the TD.  Coupled with the fact that I a team that averages 100 yards passing (zona) should never be backed.

#6) SD st +7.5 : Another hook special....essentially 5/6 are interchangeable in regards to strength, someone has to be on the bottom.  USC made the cut because they are at home with something prove and SD st sleepwalked and was LOSING by double digits to New mex st at the half two weeks ago.

Good luck gents.

10x play again:  27 1st half OVER Louisville

Half time action can be found right here later.
 
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Posted: #99
Thanks man - too many variables for me to hop in on the weeknight games.

If anything I will typically get in on some Friday action from time to time.

I never had a good feel for Thursday night football 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Was waiting to see what your final card was going to be.
On the same plays my man hope we have a good one
Going out but will be back around 8 ish check some half time plays.
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