PLAY: Army @ Navy (and write up)

Ok guys, I am going to bore you with some detailed math for this match up; I promise you it will come together to a valid point as you read on.  This is a basic one dimensional match up—Rushing offense vs rushing offense.  Both defenses are much closer in ability that the rankings might lead you to believe..  ok, see if you can stand this past the first 2 paragraphs lol…..

This game is being played inside the Capitol beltway, but it is still a Navy home game—just about 45 minutes from Annapolis.

Ok…. The fun math…..

Army has ran the ball a nation’s leading 86.5% of their total offensive plays, and that is closely followed by Navy’s 80.59% (2^nd in the country).   Over the past 3 games, Army has slightly increased their passing attempts percentage, as navy had actually deceased theirs.   Army averages 5.3 yards per rush attempt, and Navy’s is at 5.4 (8^th in the nation). 

Army averages 72 plays per game, and Navy averages 70.6 plays per game.  Army’s Defense has faced the nation’s 3^rd least amount of plays per game (62.5, and only 56.3 in their last 3 games) , while Navy’s Defense has faced an average of 70.1 plays, and 72.3 over the last 3 games. 

Army has averaged more rushing yards per game than any team in the country, while Navy is 3^rd in that category (with just 28 less yards per game than Army).

Using Air Force as a common denominator—as being a team both have played this season, and has a top ranked/high percentage rushing team. (NOTE: the armed forces teams tend to have a much stronger than most home field advantage due to the long running rivalries.  In using Air Force it is important to note that Navy played their game in Annapolis and Army played their matchup away.) 

Army controlled 31:45 in T.O.P and scored 14 points, and gave up 24.  This is important to calculate the points per minute scoring/allowing—scored 0.44 points per minute of possession and allowed 0.85 points per minute of AF’s possessed minutes.  Navy’s offense in their matchup vs AF 0.83 points per minute of possession, and yielded 1.82 pts per minute of possession….bare with me here fellas, trust me I am getting to a valid point that will pull all this together…still here?? Ok!..... Both AF and Army have near identically weak run defenses (allowing an average of 5.2 yards per rushing attempt).  Navy is slightly better for the season (but AF actually ran for 179 vs Army @ home, and 223 vs when they traveled to Navy)  

For the season, Navy has averaged 30:52 mins of possession, while Army averaged 34:16.  Navy (for season) has averaged scoring 28.9 pts per game, and Army has averaged just 22.2 pts per game.  This averages out to Navy scoring (season) 0.93 pts per minute of possession, and Army is averaging 0.65 points per minute.  Averaging 0.79 total points per minute played between both offenses.

Army averages losing a Nation’s worst 1.7 fumbles per game, while Navy only averages losing 0.7 per game.  Navy’s Defense happens to be very opportunistic in causing and recovering fumbles (averaging 1 per game), while Army only averages recovering 0.7 fumbles per game.  There lies the question…. We can easily assume that Army will probably lose a fumble, and Navy probably will not… but where would this fumble occur?  In Navy RZ, Army RZ, or mid field?  Both offenses tend to err on the side of longer/drawn out time consuming drives.  In the 4 games this season that Armys game total went over 56 they averaged turning the ball over 2 times per game.  In the 4 games that Navy’s game totals went OVER 57 points (4 games) their opponents averaged passing 237 yards (NOTE: Army has not passed for over 124 yards in any game all season, and only passed over 100 yards one other tim3—106 )

Summary:

This is a rivalry that will elict both teams best performances.   Both teams are being challenged to stop the other teams rushing attack.  This is the season for both these teams, and I see them working on their weaknesses in this one—both stopping the run, and Army not turning the ball over.  Both these teams are equal in defense in my opinion (regardless of rankings/yards allowed).  The real story here is the rushing offenses of both.  Both offenses combined to score 0.79 pts per minute, with Army expecting to control a few extra minutes of game clock—to which their scoring average is less than Navy’s.  This would lead us to logically expect approximately 44-48 pts total in this game.  I lean towards Navy winning a tight game (Army with a 42% chance at a SU victory).  The line is much too tight for me to wager on the side, but I think the opportunity lies in the Under.  Then taking into account that Navy (season) has averaged scored only 47.75% of their average game points in the first half of their games, and Army has averaged scoring only 42.8 of their average game totals in the first half…………..  This is an easy UNDER first half UNLESS Army turns the ball over multiple times in the first half in Navy’s territory, and I just don’t see that happening is this type of rivalry.

 Army 21--Navy 27

PLAY:           Army@Navy Under 28.5 first half

@ nc1capper… both offenses tend to be more productive in the 2^nd halves, but if I had to play the game total I would run the Under…but like the half much better.  GL 

@ dyamarik … GL my friend 

@ UglyKidJoe…. Lol…thanks man 

@ bikemcr…. Thank you Sir, I appreciate the sentiments…. I will,  and BoL Sir  

@ PTOTOUR…. Excellent!! 

@ The_BigDog….. me too!  GL  

@ ISTATUS… your are welcome…and let’s do that!  

@ the1andonly12…. And to you my friend ..

@ Cappyendings welcome aboard   

@ tinfoils…………TINNNNNNN!!!!  You too brother!!   

KScapping - love the math details. I do something similar with ranks of total off and def. along with sagarin ranks and sked strength, then i follow patterns. Based on this pattern, I see it being a tight game as you indicated and I actually can see Army winning it SU.   Either way thanks and best of luck.

TB

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