__________ POY: OLE MISS @ LSU w/ write up __________

Dating back to the Clinton Administration every two years this is my play of the year. I have won more on the Ole Miss/LSU CFB series than I have on any other two series in any sports combined. I’ll list some of the reasons why:

LSU is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games as a favorite.

LSU is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games against SEC teams.

LSU is 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as a double digit favorite

LSU is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a double digit home favorite

LSU is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a double digit home favorite

Ole Miss is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a double digit road dog.

And my favorite and the main reason I love this game so much:

Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS their last 7 games in Baton Rouge. 

Not only are they 7-0 ATS, but they cover by an average of 20 points per game.

I don’t know what it is about playing in Tiger Stadium that makes Ole Miss play so well. For the past decade no matter how bad that year’s team has been and no matter how good LSU’s team was, Ole Miss either wins SU or makes it a very, very close game and easily covers.

This year’s game reminds me a lot of the 2006 game between these two teams in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss came limping in at 3-7 (1-5 SEC) to play 9th ranked LSU at 8-2 (5-2 SEC). LSU was favored by 28.5 points and almost everyone thought LSU would easily slaughter the lowly Rebels.

The result: LSU had to score a TD on a 4th and goal from the 5 with 14 seconds left in the game just to push it to overtime where they won by 3 points for a final score of 23-20. If Ole Miss didn’t score a single point that game LSU still wouldn’t have covered.

And what’s very interesting about all that is this year the teams look very similar as they did back in 2006, however back then Vegas had LSU as a 28 1/2 point favorite. This year the line opened at 15 1/2.

Think about that for second. LSU is 9-1 (5-1 SEC) and ranked 5th in the country and is coming off a 51-0 win over UL Monroe while Ole Miss is 4-6 (1-5 SEC), is probably the worst team in the SEC, and is coming off a 52-14 raping by the 2nd or 3rd worse team in the SEC (Tennessee) and the line opened at 15 1/2 points.

Then there is the Houston Nutt factor. Love him or hate him everyone knows every year Houston Nutt pulls at least one big upset. His team has not had that yet this season. Also there is the fact that Houston Nutt has owned LSU as of late.

The play:

OLE MISS +17

Good luck whatever you decided.

Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

No, not at all. I look for teams to sell when they are High.

Trying to be ahead of the curve.

LSU was a good bet the past two weeks. Now? They are overvalued.

GL.

Yeah, the only time I would ever consider playing LSU at home would be as a dog or a favorite against a non-SEC team, because as home favorites against SEC teams they have been atrocious ATS. 

Since the Bama game,,,ole miss been in the toilet bowl. I wish Ole miss backers lots of luck here.

Back in 2006 Ole Miss had a worse team than this year’s team and LSU has a better team than this year’s team and everyone knew that LSU would easily cover the 28 1/2 point spread because Ole Miss was “in the toilet bowl” and had "cashed it in for the year.”

LSU won by 3 points in overtime.

Love the fact that Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS at Baton Rouge.  This makes me like LSU even more.  Ole Miss sucks this year. 

LSU 43  Ole Miss 13

People said the same thing in 2006.

The_Gr8_One

Bucks10

RJSizzle

SatNightFever05

GroveCity

CashVault

TheChildsPlay

Great write up shooter,,,The diff w/ this team and The 06 squad,,,I do not remember the 06 team ever tanking a game like this squad did last week.....Gotta think Nutt ran some hard practices this week and will have this team focused.....This is thier championship game ......all else is lost.....

OLE-MISS