Public Indicator Calculations 2023

@HooAlum

 Solid stuff - thank you and safe travels!

Anyone know if there has been any reverse movement in the Oregon/Washington game? Curious to know if WAS is still the play.

@HooAlum

 So we were 2-1 in the morning (and most of you  rightfully will call out how fake that is given Purdue was the big play and was the loss so a net loss of revenue).  Th good news is that Purdue bettors came in heavy to lower the handle to the 30%s on Ohio St so the loss is not 5 units - it still is 3 units).

In the afternoon South Carolina is now the play due to lopsided wagering going away (so that is an unfortunate change as the score stands right now) and most of you probably saw the line movement in Iowa-Wisconsin come back down to 8.5 erasing the 9.5 line movement that led to a Badger pick.  Thus, no bet in that game.

@HooAlum

 No reverse movement in WQashgington so it was still la play as it appears they are out to go down and only push at best.  Lot of games came off the board (weird usually nto this many).  Auburn-LSU, Mizzou-entucky, Miami UNC and Oregon St-UCLA all had their indicators conflict.  I have never seen so many at once.  NC State is still active but reduced to 5 units, Notre Dame is still the same play 

@HooAlum

I’m on NC State +3.5.  The vig at Gambet was a ridiculous -135 several hours ago, but patience paid off as it finally come down to a reasonable amount.

NC State is not looking good.  The overall record this week is actually solid but the big plays are mixed as Tulane was a winner, Notre Dame looks like a winner, but Purdue was a loser and NC State looks like a loser.  The question is where people had Washington.  Most books had it at 3 (and I personally did) for a push but a few folks likely had it at 3.5 which as we know is a loss over so very mixed.  it completely determines (if results hold) whether this was a winning week or a losing week.

@HooAlum

I have read the term "SKS" in this thread and also in last years 2022 thread by

you and some of the other posters. What does SKS stand for and what is it 

exactly ?? Keep up the excellent work my friend.

@SquareLove

SKS:  “Someone Knows Something”

@HooAlum

Some more questions:

*What is the magic number percentage wise for "Lopsided Wagering"

Is it when the public percentage climbs over 70, 75, 80 percent ?

*What is the magic number percentage wise for "Low Bet Ticket Favorite"

Is it when the public percentage for the favorite falls below 60, 50, 40 percent ?

*And for "Low Handle Favorite" are we looking for a favorite getting 50% or less

of the handle ? Or is there a different magic number percentage wise for this?

Hoo- Thanks for the info.  You are one of very few adding actual value as most of the posters in this forum are pure garbage.  Thank you.  Also I don’t understand all of these questions,  it’s not like many of these people will actually back up the info. so why ask?

Anyway - Thanks Hoo.  I appreciate you because I follow similar money movements and always follow your threads for back up.

@HooAlum

Here is the weekly update and early look.  We do have one game tonight.  The week was slightly ahead for me (because I had the push in Washington-Oregon - otherwise it would admittedly have been a losing week).  A few corrections came in on both sides.  Lopsided wagering did disappear in Louisville-Pitt giving Pitt the win.  However, Kentucky snuck in low ticket and Wisconsin low handle thus those were now on the losing side so when you see the overall record come down to .500 for the week, that is why.  As a note, I do this relook not to recreate history but to make sure the indicators are accurate going forward.

WEEKLY RECORD: 6-6

WEEKLY REVENUE: 37.3 units won on 34 wagered

SEASON RECORD: 60-46 (56.6%)

SEASON REVENUE: 380.5 units won on 318 wagered (19.65% profit)

Here are the games on the plate presently

Southern Miss (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze

Ohio St (2 units) - low ticket and handle on favorite outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma (3 units) - low ticket handle and favroite

Washington St-Oregon (No Bet) - No indicators

Alabama (1 unit) - low handle favorite

Kansas State (5 units) - lopsided wagering and low ticket and handle favorite

Ole Miss (1 unit) - sharp action and bye week return outweighs lopsided wagering

Michigan (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Florida St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs minor sharp action and over/under squeeze

Clemson (1 unit) - bye week return

Southern Cal (6 units) - sharp action and SKS

************

Indicator Performance

SKS (line and rankings do not correlate): 80%

Early start for west coast traveler: 66.67%

Steam: 66.67%

Low Ticket Favorite: 64.44%

Low Handle Favorite: 64.10%

Sharp Action: 57.81%

Bye Week Return: 54.55%

Reverse Movement: 53.33%

Lopsided wagering: 47.83%

Line Movement: 47.83%

Over/Under Squeeze: 35%

Got off on the wrong foot this week with that horrible Southern Miss read.  This week the tells are just not coming in fast.  Only one game is popping (Trojans looking to bounce back)

Ohio St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on favorite outweighs sharp action

Oklahoma (2 units) - low ticket handle and favorite outweighs line movement

Oregon (1 unit) - line movement

Alabama (1 unit) - low handle favorite

TCU-Kansas State (No bet) - lopsided wagering low ticket and handle went away as everything evened out

Auburn-Ole Miss (No Bet) - bye week return balances lopsided wagering

Michigan State (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Duke (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Clemson (1 unit) - bye week return

Southern Cal (5 units) - line movement and SKS

NEW GAME: Stanford - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs strong sharp action

*What is the magic number percentage wise for "Lopsided Wagering"

Is it when the public percentage climbs over 70, 75, 80 percent ?

*What is the magic number percentage wise for "Low Bet Ticket Favorite"

Is it when the public percentage for the favorite falls below 60, 50, 40 percent ?

*And for "Low Handle Favorite" are we looking for a favorite getting 50% or less

of the handle ? Or is there a different magic number percentage wise for this?

I only ask because when you were traveling and on the plane the last two weekends

you advised us to watch for any changes if you could not update in time. And I could

not find this info in last years 2022 thread and or in this years thread. Thanks

@SquareLove

 I suspect that Hoo has a much bigger following than most of us suspect.   I have been a quiet follower for years and I suspect there are quite a few more, just like me.  

For many years (30 +), I have tried to follow money flows in betting in conjunction with line movement.  As Hoo has suggested, obtaining good data is usually a tipping point and was hard to find for many years.   I actually only use Hoo's data in regard to ticket number and handle number plus his analysis on what is "sharp action".   Not sure if lopsided wagering is that significant but I could be wrong here because I may not understand the subtleties.  I am also intrigued by "SKS" which seems to be one of the stronger Hoo plays.   Anyway, keep up the good work Hoo Alum.  It is much appreciated.

@SquareLove

 Thanks Square.  I'll do my best.  I have a weighted average as different books give different numbers.  A shorthand rule is 75% for lopsided but more books means the number goes down.  On low ticket and handle is 50% but a weighted average once again.  One book may be 49 while another is 60.

@HooAlum

 Good news more games have hit the qualifying level.  Bad news is that still no games besides Utah Southern Cal are popping and even that one reduced from 5 units to 4 (however I still personally like that if I was forced to pick one game this week - remember Notre Dame was my personal pick last week so it is not personal, just business).  

NEW GAME: SMU (3 units) - line movement and steam

Ohio St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on favorite outweighs sharp action

NEW GAME: Navy-Air Force (no bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp action and over/under squeeze

Oklahoma (1 unit) - low ticket & handle and favorite outweighs line movement and sharp action

NEW GAME: Minnesota (1 unit) - sharp action and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

Washington St-Oregon (No Bet) - line movement balanced by sharp action

Alabama (2 units) - low handle favorite and sharp action

NEW GAME: Missouri (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and bye week return

NEW GAME: Houston (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

TCU (1 unit) - lopsided wagering

Auburn (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Michigan State (1 unit) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Duke (1 unit) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Clemson (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return

Southern Cal (4 units) - line movement and SKS outweighs sharp action

Arizona St-Washington (no Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by strong sharp action

Mustaings so far so good hopefully do nto let teh backdoor open as that is turning into a big play for this weekend as all the games are just ho-hum as Utah has received a lot of sharp action.  Play is still "Fight On!" but less than it was.  Personally I would still pick this one.  But one other game has passed it due to an initial mistake on my end not realizing Air Force would be starting so early in Annapolis.  However, if there is one group of kids who are used to being ready at the crack of dawn, it is a military academy so do not know how effective this typically strong tell will be.  A few other changes around the edges as sharp action has become a little more clear.

Ohio St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on favorite outweighs sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Navy (4 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze and early tart for west coast traveling team outweighs low ticket and handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: UCF (1 unit) line movement and sharp action outweighs low ticket & handle and favorite

Minnesota (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Washington St (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs line movement 

Alabama (2 units) - low handle favorite and sharp action

Missouri (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and bye week return

Houston (1 unit) - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs bye week return

TCU (3 unit) - lopsided wagering with line movement

Auburn (2 units) - lopsided wagering and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Michigan State (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Duke (1 unit) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Clemson (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return

Southern Cal (3 units) - line movement and SKS outweighs increasing sharp action

Arizona St-Washington (no Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by strong sharp action

Hey Hooalum, you meant Air Force, not Navy. The early start West Coast angle is from the squad from Colorado.

@HooAlum

 Here is the early Saturday update.  I will once again be o note road much of the day so pay attention to the Everson tweet storm pushed up to 945am for sharp nuggets.  It will be the third week in a row I cannot incorporate them so apologize.  

Ohio St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on favorite outweighs sharp action

Navy (5 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze and early start for west coast traveling team outweighs low ticket and handle favorite (as a note Air Force is at the disadvantage due to the early start but once again are these kids not used to being called at the crack of dawn?  Thus, be wary, however it is still a Navy play if you took that indicator off, just not as big)

PICK CHANGE: UCF-Oklahoma (No Bet) line movement and sharp action balanced low ticket & handle and favorite

Minnesota (1 unit) - sharp action and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

Washington St (1 unit) - sharp action outweighs line movement 

Alabama (3 units) - low handle favorite and sharp action

PICK CHANGE: South Carolina-Missouri (No Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp action and bye week return

PICK CHANGE Texas (1 unit) - bye week return 

TCU (3 unit) - lopsided wagering with line movement

PICK CHANGE: Auburn-Ole Miss (No Bet) - sharp action balanced by bye week return

Michigan State (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Duke (1 unit) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

Clemson (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return

Southern Cal (3 units) -  SKS outweighs sharp action

Arizona St-Washington (no Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by strong sharp action

Mid morning update and final one for a few hours.  Was able to get a slice of the tweetstrom (notice the flip in picks for Florida St but try to grab at 13.5/14 not 14.5 and shapes coning back for Trojans - this has the potential to go higher than the present 5 units but try to get below a touchdown)

Ohio St (1 unit) - low ticket and handle on favorite outweighs sharp action

Navy (5 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze and early start for west coast traveling team outweighs low ticket and handle favorite 

UCF-Oklahoma (No Bet) line movement and sharp action balanced low ticket & handle and favorite

Minnesota (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return outweighs low handle favorite

Washington St (2 units) - sharp action outweighs line movement 

Alabama (3 units) - low handle favorite and sharp action

South Carolina-Missouri (No Bet) - low ticket and handle favorite balanced by sharp action and bye week return

Texas (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return 

TCU (3 unit) - lopsided wagering with line movement

Auburn-Ole Miss (No Bet) - sharp action balanced by bye week return

Michigan State (2 units) - sharp action and over/under squeeze outweighs low handle favorite

PICK CHANGE: Florida St (1 unit) - sharp action and low handle favorite outweighs over/under squeeze

Clemson (2 units) - sharp action and bye week return

Southern Cal (5 units) -  SKS outweighs sharp action

PICK CHANGE: Washington (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action

@HooAlum

 Great stuff as always!!

@HooAlum

A tale of two Saturdays.  5-0 to start including getting lucky to grab the hook in Navy-Air Force followed by 0-6 in the evening including a loss in the big play of the week.  It all comes out to the first losing week in well over a month.  Not a disaster but much to be desired.

@HooAlum

 I took your advice on Navy/Air Force and my betting app offered it at Navy +11.5 for the 1/2 point cover.  Thanks, HooAlum!

@HooAlum

As mentioned what looked like an amazing week with a 6-0 Friday and Saturday morning turned sour with an 0-6 finish.  Combined with the mistake on Tuesday that equals being down.  Here is a Wednesday morning update for the week ahead. 

WEEKLY RECORD 6-7

OVERALL RECORD: 66-53 (55.46%)

WEEKLY REVENUE: 30.4 units on 33 wagered

OVERALL REVENUE: 410.9 units on 351 wagered (17.07% profit)

WEEK 9 GAMES

Virginia Tech (5 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite (wait on this one to mature a little more as some tells on the razor's edge)

Oklahoma (2 units) - lopsided wagering, low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and bye week return

NC State (2 units) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze (as you can see below those tells should make you jump all over it - sarcasm incl)

Louisville (3 units) - low ticket and handle favorite, and bye week return outweighs sharp action

Oregon (2 units) - mild SKS and sharp action outweighs lopsided wagering

Georgia (1 unit) - low ticket and handle favorite (never seen a #1 team so repeatedly disrespected by the public on a weekly basis) outweighs sharp action and over/under squeeze

Kentucky-Tennessee (No bet) - low ticket and handle favorite outweighs sharp action and bye week return

UCLA (2 units) - low ticket favorite and sharp action outweighs bye week return

Wisconsin (1 unit) - lopsided wagering and over/under squeeze outweighs sharp action

Fresno (2 units) - low ticket favorite and bye week return

Oregon St (1 unit) - low handle favorite

*************

Indicator Performance (use as a guide if you do not like my weights)

Early Start for traveling western team: 75% (thank you for allowing the half point backdoor cover Air Force)

SKS: 73%

Steam: 70%

Low Bet & Handle Favorite Combined: 67.86%

Low Handle Favorite: 62.5%

Low Bet Favorite: 62%

Sharp action analysis: 58%

Reverse Movement: 53.3%

Line Movement: 50%

Bye week Return: 50%

Lopsided Wagering: 40.74%

Over/Under Squeeze: 33% (over its 4 year history even with this awful year it is an impressive 55.5% over 186 games, including a stunning 58.93% in 56 games last year - so not a small sample size.)

Blowout Response: 36.4%   -I no longer incorporate this tell - thank goodness - but track it.  The theory is that oddsmakers will undervalue a team coming off a blowout loss (28 points).  There have been several studies to back this up but I have repeatedly see it now as a fade.  Its 5 year history is now under .500.