Please don't come in this thread and use "4-0 ATS in last 4 road games" as a defense of taking Purdue. I'm not even going to address an 'October trend'.
But let's talk about those 4 road games because on their face, that appears attractive:
@Iowa/Purdue getting 23 - loss 40-20. It was, embarrassingly, the second biggest number Iowa gave out all year after spotting 25 to North Texas. Think about that: We are supposed to laud Purdue for a 23 point spread road cover against an Iowa team, who, dare I say, didn't exactly run a spread offense last year, by a measly 3, and still got bombed in the real game. We are supposed to use this as 'capping ammo' for a potential road performance when analyzing this Maryland game?
The next game?
@ Northwestern: Lost 21-14. Embarrassingly, Northwestern gave as many points to Purdue, 14, as they almost did to...Ball State. Imagine a Power 5 team on the level of Ball state in terms of a spread. So sad. And only Eastern Illinois received more at +24 from NW. Again, Northwestern isn't the Run and Shoot Houston Oilers here to be spotting this kind of number, but when it comes to Purdue at the end of the year with their season spiraling out of control, 14 was quite reasonable. And of course, Purdue lost but to their credit covered. But still, the number itself is a bit outrageous given the above.
@ Wisconsin: Lost 24-7 getting 21.5. Let's not brag about .5 pt cover in Purdue's most lackluster offensive performance of the year (and there were many but this was the worst) because Wisconsin sat on the ball in the second half as Purdue covered by a hair.
@Michigan State: 24-21 getting 21. I'll give them credit for this one. So if you want to use THIS ONE GAME as ammo for your pick this year, be my guest. It happened almost a YEAR ago to the day on 10/3. That was EONS ago.
So the 4-0 ATS on the road in the last 4 really isn't of any worth.
That 4-0 came as Purdue was wrapping the season up, players were thinking about graduating and leaving that hell and Blough was still learning the ropes. The books couldn't give them enough points. I also think their OC Shoop was intentionally trying to get fired with some of his play calling.
This year they are 2-1 and are getting a little more than two scores on the road. It's not enough, is completely different than the "end of year 'shoot me now' Purdue" where the numbers were bloated to the high heavens. I'm more than willing to defame them in this way for this ONE game to make money off it. I WANT them to win. Trust me. But they won't. And it could get ugly fast. I'll hope for better against Lovie Smith but a win here just isn't going to happen. I'd be floored if it did.
both sides can bark but we shall wait till game day. If your senior qb don't play is what I am betting upon and taking that spread.
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