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RABID'S TOP 5: Week 10 (60.20%)

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Rabid’s Top 5 Picks
  • Missouri -10.5
  • Penn State -10
  • Georgia Tech -10.5
  • Arizona -16
  • Auburn -7.5
  • Follow us on Twitter to get a bonus pick: @RabidPicks
 
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Posted: #2
TENNESSEE AT MISSOURI: THEY’RE GR-R-REAT!

Missouri got punched in the mouth last week at home under the lights. Look for them to bounce back this Saturday. They played one quarter of bad football and it cost them. That’s just what Mizzou does, they inexplicably choke one off just as they become a contender.

Entering into the easiest part of their schedule the Tigers are near the top in most statistics.  Mizzou’s offense is 32nd in passing, 18th in rushing, and 11th in points.  They’re defense is 35th in points against, but only 66th in total defense.

Against Georgia, Florida, and for 3 quarters against South Carolina, the Tigers rolled through top 25 teams. They’re still in control of their own destiny, and last Saturday was the wake up call they needed. They can’t slack off, even for a minute. Mizzou is mad, and with lowly Kentucky on deck Tennessee has their full attention.

Tennessee is tough to get a read on.  They are 4-4 on the season, but play an utterly ridiculous schedule. It reads as a who’s who list in college football. Tennessee’s four losses? #2 Oregon, #19 Florida, #6 Georgia, and #1 Alabama. During that stretch they beat #11 South Carolina, and they have #9 Missouri and #11 Auburn next. For those playing along at home, that’s 6 top 11 teams in an 8 game stretch. Unbelievable.

The Volunteers look like they’re starting to succumb to their schedule. They got land blasted the last two weeks, and I’m just not sure how much fight they have left. Especially against a Missouri team that’s looking for a fight.

ATS History: Missouri has the edge. They are 3-1-1 against the spread at home. Tennessee is 1-2-0 ATS on the road.
 
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Posted: #3
ILLINOIS AT PENN STATE: IT’S A STATE OF MIND

Both teams are pretty even on offense at this point of the season. Illinois is 58th in points, and Penn State is 59th. Both Depend on the pass to move the ball. Penn State averages just 152 yards on the ground, and Illinois is even worse averaging 139 yards. This game is going to come down to defense.

Illinois’ defense is bleeding. They rank 103rd in points allowed, and after three straight losses there’s no sign of clotting. In the last three games the Fighting Illini have given up 137 points.

This games should come down to who can slow down the pass. Penn State’s has a very average pass defense, ranked 56th, and that should be enough to get the job done. Illinois’ pass defense comes in at 74th in the nation. That’s a decided advantage in Penn State’s favor.

Illinois is going on the road for only the second time this year, and already looks to be about ready to pack it in for the season. Penn State is still fighting for Bowl eligibility. Give me the motivated team at home.

ATS History: Advantage Penn State. They are 3-1-0 against the spread at home, and Illinois failed to cover the spread on their only away game.
 
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Posted: #4
PITTSBURGH AT GEORGIA TECH: THEY’RE “PITT”IFUL

It’s no secret what Georgia Tech is going to do on offense. The only question is if the Panthers can stop the Yellow Jackets prolific triple option attack.

Georgia Tech is 4th in the nation in rushing yards. They are averaging 316 yards per game. Unfortunately these stats come at the expense of their passing attack.  As good as Tech is rushing they are equally as bad throwing the ball. They rank 118th in passing, and average just 124 yards through the air. If Pitt stops the triple option, then the Tech is in real trouble.

Fortunately for the Yellow Jackets, Pitt hasn’t shown any sign of being able to shut down an elite rushing attack. Pittsburgh ranks slightly better than average in rush defense at 51st in the nation. That might be enough to slow down most teams, but not Tech.

But hey, BOTH teams play offense right? Well, I don’t know. Pitt puts eleven guys out there when they have the ball, I’m just not sure you can call it an offense. They rank 73rd in passing, 92nd in rushing, and are 72nd in scoring. That’s pitiful.

Give me the team good at something over the team good at nothing.

ATS History: Pitt just can’t find an advantage anywhere.  They are 0-3-0 against the spread on the road, and Georgia Tech is 3-1-0 ATS at home.
 
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Posted: #5
ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA: RUNNING WILD

Okay I’ll be honest, this shocked the hell out of me. California is 8th in the nation in passing. How in the world does a team rank in the top ten in passing and rank 97th in scoring AT THE SAME TIME? That’s a whole other level of awful.

As surprising as that is, that isn’t the Golden Bears worst stat. They’re 123rd in points allowed. It’s no surprise Cal has only one win this season, and even Portland State put 30 on them.

I have to call it. I’m throwing in the white flag. No more stats for Cal, it’s just too sad.

Arizona is a decent team, and they’re a passing attack away from being a threat to the Pac 12 South. The Wildcats may only be 107th through the air, but make up for it on the ground, and are ranked 11th in rushing. They might not be balanced on offense, but they have a good defense and put points on the board. Arizona is 20th in points allowed, and 31st in scoring.

You might wonder if Arizona will be up for this game, but they just beat Colorado by 24, and I doubt Cal is 6 points better.

ATS History:  I said no more Cal stats, but there is just one more. Cal has yet to cover a game at home, and have only covered one game all year.
 
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Posted: #6
AUBURN AT ARKANSAS: WAR EAGLE

Arkansas is fading fast. They have lost their last 5 games. The last 4 defeats have come from top 20 teams, losing by an average of 32 points a game. Each game has been worse than the one before, and it’s not going to get any easier this week when Auburn comes to town ranked 11th in the nation.

Arkansas’ rushing attack is a competent 29th in the country. Unfortunately that’s their only bright spot. They have struggled getting into the endzone and rank a mere 108th in scoring.  That’s not good news for team that’s allowed 104 points in their last two games. 104!

Auburn ranks 36th against the rush and should be able to contain the Razorbacks only weapon. On the offensive side of the ball the Tigers will look to give Auburn a dose of their own medicine. The Auburn offense features the 5th best rushing attack in the land. The big difference between the two rushing attacks is that Auburn doesn’t have a hard time scoring. They are ranked 28th in points for. That won’t change against Arkansas’ 70th ranked rush defense.

Auburn big in this one. The only way these two teams are close is alphabetically.

ATS History: Auburn is 6-2-0 against the spread on the year, while Arkansas is 2-6-0.
 
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Posted: #7
GL .. as i will be on a couple...

.but there's this very good website and it looks like you grabbed all their 'easy pickins'  sans PSU... 

EASY PICKINS:The computer likes the favorite with room to spare.2012 Regular Season: 94-27 SU (.777), 67-54 ATS (.554)
2013 Regular Season: 71-7 SU (.783), 51-27 ATS (.654)
This Week: 1-0 SU (1.000), 1-0 ATS (1.000)
PAST RECORDSSaturday, November 2

Arizona (-14.5) by 21.40 over CALIFORNIA - Cal ranks 91st nationally in run defense. That doesn't spell success when Arizona brings the nation's lading rusher to the contest (Ka'Deem Carey, 154 yards per game). The Wildcats also have the nation's 18th-ranked pass defense and Cal relies on the air attack for 76% of its yardage.

Auburn (-9.5) by 11.65 over ARKANSAS - The difference between the computer and the opening line is relatively small, but the computer trend gives the Tigers a much larger advantage is the 20+ range.

iGEORGIA TECH (-8) by 17.17 over Pittsburgh - The Yellow Jackets were 11.08-point preseason favorites and that margin has increased 6.09 points over the course of the season.

MISSOURI (-13) by 14.57 over Tennessee - The trend indicates Mizzou by 22+.


 
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Posted: #8
haha, never heard of them.  You can go through our blog. These picks are our own.
 
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Posted: #9
@nuggins

Not sure if your serious.  I googled it, and it took me to a clothing website and band website.  Mind giving the link? 
 
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Posted: #10
Nevermind about Penn State fighting for bowl eligibility, because.... ya I'm an idiot. Still like the pick though.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by RabidPicks:

@nuggins

Not sure if your serious.  I googled it, and it took me to a clothing website and band website.  Mind giving the link? 

college football pool . c o m
 
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Posted: #12
sorry ....  poll
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by nuggins:


college football pool . c o m

Thanks I found it. I'm a little confused, were you liking my picks, and just saying they had them too, or are you trying to accuse me of copying picks?  Because, that's not cool, and pretty weak.  They pick several games, and when people know what they are doing they will end up on the same side a few times.  

good luck this week.
 
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Posted: #14
like em all !!..gl Saturday....thanx for the picks with the write ups!
 
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Posted: #15
Good stuff. Already had AUB,GT and MIZZ in ML parlays. Keep it coming.  GL this weekend.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Thanks, good luck to two as well!
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by KAYLE163:

looks good penn st can't go to a bowl game eligible.

Ya, I caught that when re reading it. I don't know what I was thinking there.  I still like the pick
 
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Posted: #19
Who is everyone else taking?
 
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Posted: #20
What is our strongest play? What's our weakest? Got any feedback?
 
 
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Posted: #21
It's Gameday! Goodluck everyone!
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