Rich's week 7 CFB including my GOY

A decent last week going 4-2 in CFB. Just remember this is not my top sport so tail with caution as I have been plus units 5 of the 6 weeks now.

158 Kansas State +17.5 7 Units GOY
158 Kansas State +600 ML .5 Units

I am taking Kansas State plus the points versus Baylor. I know Baylor has averaged 69 PPG in their 1st 4 games but that has come against Wofford, Louisiana Monroe, Buffalo, and West Virginia. None of these teams have a defense ranking in the top 90. Also this will be Baylor’s 1st road game of the season. Kansas State has a lot of new faces this year but they are starting to play a lot better as a group. They had Oklahoma State beat last week on the road but gave up a very late score to lose by only 4 points. The home team has won the last 6 in this match up. Kansas State has won 5 in a row ATS after a straight up loss. This game will be much closer than the experts think. Also the line opened at 19 to 20 points everywhere and is now down to 17 or 17.5 with 72% of the Bets on Baylor.

138 Ball State -13.5 4 Units

I am taking Ball State minus the points versus Kent State. Kent had a good team last year but that was last year. Kent has allowed 40 PPG to the 4 teams they have faced in the top 60 and Ball State will be their 5th as Ball State is averaging 41 PPG. My math models have them winning by 30.

145 Rice + 2 4 Units

I am taking Rice plus the points versus Texas San Antonio. Rice has won 8 of their last 10 straight up and they are 7 – 3 ATS. 2 of the 3 ATS losses they won straight up but didn’t cover the spread. Last year Rice won this match up by 20 points and they have a more veteran and talented team this year. The wrong team is favored in this one.

151 Georgia Tech + 7.5 3.5 Units

I am taking Georgia Tech plus the points versus BYU. I have been against the Yellow Jackets the last 2 weeks as they faced 2 of the top defenses in the country. BYU has a good defense but not the speed of the Hokies or Hurricanes. BYU surprised GT last year by beating them by 24 points in Atlanta as an underdog. I am looking for a little payback in this one.

103 Rutgers +19 3 Units

I am playing Rutgers plus the points versus Louisville. Louisville has beat up on some pretty weak competition so far this year. Rutgers will be the 1st team within the top 50 that they have faced. Rutgers is 3 and 4 against them the last 7 years and only 1 time did Louisville beat them by DD. Rutgers has been on the road and has played well, losing to Fresno by 1 in overtime and winning at SMU in OT. They are well coached and always well prepared. 3 scores is just too much to give a good team.

114 Michigan State -9.5 3 Units

I am taking Michigan State minus the points versus Indiana. The Hoosiers beat me last week as Penn State looked really bad. I expect them to have a letdown after beating them for the 1st time ever. This will be Indiana’s 1st road game and they have to go up against the Big 10’s best defense. Indiana is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at Michigan State.

G/L

I could be wrong but you're insane with the KSU pick haha.

With you on Rutgers and GT. I also like Arizona and BC because of the spot they are in. Both their opponents have big games next week.

Arod this is the time of the year when insane wins.  But I understand and kinda hope that very few agree with me.

That close loss against OKIE ST is the reason they get blown out in this one. West Virginia beats OKIE ST then lays an egg at Baylor. Can see the same thing happening here. Yes K ST is playing better but bad timing to play Baylor this week coming off that nailbiter in Stillwater. Emotional loss. Baylor gets these teams at the right time. Also helps they cant be stopped and their defense is actually pretty decent. BOL

I feel you Rich. Good luck to you this week.

My thoughts on the WV win over Okie State.  They didn't win Okie State lost. Every single thing went their way and OKST was not ready to play.  And WV put up 42 points with a very poor offense against Baylor, not sure about that defense.

Potentially critical error, if this actually factored into your analysis of this game...

rich,

appreciate your input but i'm riding baylor.

BYUs coach is known for being able to slow down the triple option (117 yards last year).  BYU's Kyle Van Noy is one of the best LB in the country and will go in the first round next year.  Going back to back road games across the country is tough to do plus playing at 4200 ft.  BYU has had more rest and time to prep time for the game.  Watch Gt tire out in the second half and allow big plays to happen like they did last week.

Like the Ball State pick, but see Baylor blowing out K State. 

I like all the picks we share the same brain.

158 Kansas State +17.5 7 Units GOY..
Baylor just win 7-10  points max ........

One thing is for sure......it won't take long before you realize how wrong you are about baylor.

Didn't Baylor Knock K-State out of BCS last year?

Rich, just to be clear... I am not challenging your play, just correcting a couple of errors in the analysis, for the sake of those trying to get a feel for this game...

What are you trying to clear up? The line issue that you mention is not really correct.  Yes it is posted at a couple of sites that it opened at 10.5 for just a few hours then jumped to 19 or 20.  We see this every week with a few games but you can never get that line as it really isn't released.  Look a couple of weeks back at the Texas am line at Arkansas.  It was posted as opening at 3.  Obviously that line was never to be found anywhere.

My math models have Baylor winning by 8 to 10 points so I feel that I am getting at least a TD of value.

And regardless of what string player was in the game, Baylor's defense gave up 42 to a really bad WV team.

And none of this means they are going to win or stay close but I am taking my chances.  Fade or follow.  Don't care.

georgia tech is going to lose by 20+

no offensive line penetration = no offense

like the K state pick. good luck this week.

Bol.

BOL this weekend Underdog!  

I hope you guys tailed!!!