Posted:
#1
this is unscientific and somewhat discretionary. i compare sagarin lines vs what the oddsmakers have given us to work with. i look for 5 points + differentials and wager with the oddsmakers
other factors i look at: i want home teams and may not take a game if its a road team even if the differential is greater than 5; also consensus; i would like J6P to think he is playing a slam dunk (Florida barely fits the differential bill this week but the consensus is on the Gators. i dont want to be with the consensus for this method). i also want BCS teams where lines may be a little bit tighter. i wont play a MAC game if it fits everything else because the MAC may be controlled by Arnold Rothstein's grandkids
for today: (sagarin rating differential on neutral field first, then morning line)
Georgia +2 Tennesse; line is UGA -11
play UGA -11
Bama -16 South Carolina; line is Bama -7
play Cocks +7...and a little on the ML as well (call it a gut feel +245)
other factors i look at: i want home teams and may not take a game if its a road team even if the differential is greater than 5; also consensus; i would like J6P to think he is playing a slam dunk (Florida barely fits the differential bill this week but the consensus is on the Gators. i dont want to be with the consensus for this method). i also want BCS teams where lines may be a little bit tighter. i wont play a MAC game if it fits everything else because the MAC may be controlled by Arnold Rothstein's grandkids
for today: (sagarin rating differential on neutral field first, then morning line)
Georgia +2 Tennesse; line is UGA -11
play UGA -11
Bama -16 South Carolina; line is Bama -7
play Cocks +7...and a little on the ML as well (call it a gut feel +245)
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