Posted:
#1
this system is 4-2 in the last two weeks. i was stupid to add miami, fl last week as it was borderline and smart to not add florida as the consensus didnt match up properly
its completely discretionary and unscientific. i dont factor in HFA in the line differentiators. i look for road faves who have a <7-8 point differential between neutral field sagarin ratings and what oddsmakers have put out there. i also look at covers consensus as well as another site. i look for at least 60-65% on the other side of what i an looking at
my reason for doing this: i dont have time to properly handicap 70-90 games each week and watch a ton of teams. college football handicapping is about spots, revenge, rest, motivation etc. oddsmakers definitely know this. sagarin ratings are pure and do not. each week there are 3-5 games that are very different from the sagarin pure power ratings and what vegas puts out as a betting line.
3 games this week i see
Kansas State -15 @ (sagarin differential) Kansas; betting line is 3
South Carolina -16 @ Kentucky; line is 4.5
Oregon State -13 @ Washington; line is Wash -1.5
keep an eye on East Carolina. if the line moves below a TD, then ECU would fall into my criteria. also Duke...both borderline
playing:
Kansas +3
Kentucky +4.5
Washington -1.5
its completely discretionary and unscientific. i dont factor in HFA in the line differentiators. i look for road faves who have a <7-8 point differential between neutral field sagarin ratings and what oddsmakers have put out there. i also look at covers consensus as well as another site. i look for at least 60-65% on the other side of what i an looking at
my reason for doing this: i dont have time to properly handicap 70-90 games each week and watch a ton of teams. college football handicapping is about spots, revenge, rest, motivation etc. oddsmakers definitely know this. sagarin ratings are pure and do not. each week there are 3-5 games that are very different from the sagarin pure power ratings and what vegas puts out as a betting line.
3 games this week i see
Kansas State -15 @ (sagarin differential) Kansas; betting line is 3
South Carolina -16 @ Kentucky; line is 4.5
Oregon State -13 @ Washington; line is Wash -1.5
keep an eye on East Carolina. if the line moves below a TD, then ECU would fall into my criteria. also Duke...both borderline
playing:
Kansas +3
Kentucky +4.5
Washington -1.5
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