S.Alabama +12.5

This is an instate rivalry game. Since 2012 S.Alabama is 3-2 against Troy and the 2 losses are by a combined 8 points. 

S. Alabama getting 12.5 at home, plus Troy QB Barker out for year is too much to pass up on.

BoL

I do not see it despite QB Barker being out for Troy. His replacement Sawyer Smith is a runner, and South Alabama cannot stop the run with teams averaging 5 yards a carry against this defense. Now if this is not bad enough, South Alabama is one of the most penalized teams in the country giving up 95 yards a game in penalties. If all this is not bad enough the offense of South Alabama is the bottom of the barrel other than the game they played last week against Alabama State. 

Troy is the much better team in all phases of the game including having Smith as there starting QB. There is not one advantage you can find that will point to South Alabama covering this spread. Troy is going to win going away by 25 to 30 points, and you can take that to the pay window! 

I highly suggest you go and do some more due diligence before making a play on this game. Good luck to you! 

As we all know when it comes to passionate in state rivals all stats go out the window. 

 I could point out that Troy has covered every game since Boise State until two weeks ago - Smith's first game at QB.  I could point out that Smith can run and has had two weeks to get ready.  I could point out the S Alabama's D is giving up almost 500 yards per game.  I could point out the the Jaguars lost their first game by four points and then every other game by double digits.  Until last week when they finally won - against ALABAMA STATE| I could point out that Alabama State is not Alabama. 

But all I need to know is that almost 70% of the public is on Troy and the line has been falling all day.  Reverse line movement says...

SOUTH ALABAMA +11

Knock yourself out and go ahead and play South Alabama. It is your money. I know handicapping very well, as I do a lot of due diligence on College Football Games, and I know what the smart play is, but I can only share the knowledge of my time and efforts. 

Good luck to you! 

Troy can name their margin of victory. What you need to ask yourself is whether or not they have a reason to win by 12 or more.

WRONG 

1 ADVANTAGE S ALA  AT HOME

2 RIVALRY GAME

3 THEY MOST ALWAYS PLAY A TIGHT GAME.

4 S Ala has played a much tougher schedule than Troy and it aint close.  I am not saying take S ala , but please do your home work before saying S Ala doesn't have and advantage.

Man, seriously, some of you guys are taking this game too seriously as if your reputation is on the line if people don't agree with you.  I'll admit, I'm not an expert ANY division, this was just my logical, rational choice that I came up with from looking at the data presented to me from covers.com. It's just a wager.  If it wins, it wins.  If it loses, it loses.  Keep it simple. 

Lets see how knowledgeable you are about handicapping, as this game is going to be a blow out, but you chose not to listen to some sound advice I was providing you.

As I pointed out in my post breaking down this game, South Alabama is one of the most penalized teams in the country giving up 95 yards a game in penalties. 

These refs blow quit calling dumb penalties 

Troy is going to cover that 19.5 

Wow... Seems like this is being "fixed" so that South Alabama covers... 

Too funny!