Saturday Straight Bet

some line movement -3 -115

The lines can change anytime or anyday in wagering!  

I keep finding more info on this game this predictions says Hawaii in a rout:

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I found this for the Utah State Backers Possible Bad Weather in the form of Snow expected. Statesman says Aggies win 38-35

X-Factor: The weather. The National Weather Service has already issued an alert for Northern Utah this weekend, warning that "the mild fall weather of late will take a dramatic turn beginning this weekend." Cache Valley is expecting cooler air and precipitation, possibly in the form of snow. Will it arrive by 3 p.m. Saturday? A 50 percent chance of precipitation during the day is currently forcasted, but a drop in the mercury can only help the Aggies at this point. While Hawaii did play well in a loss at altitude against Colorado, that game occurred in December. Logan in late October is a whole different ballgame.

Statesman Prediction: If we've learned one thing from Utah state this year, it's expect the unexpected. From nearly shocking Oklahoma to upsetting BYU to getting blown out by Louisiana Tech, the first half of the season has played out much differently than most Aggie fans expected. Saturday should be no different, and although Hawaii comes in as the hottest team in the WAC, traveling to Logan will present Bryant Moniz and the offense problems. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and get healthy, while the Warriors will come into the game off their biggest win in a year. The result? Your classic "trap" game for the Warriors, who will come out overconfident and find that the change of climate will stifle their winning ways. Utah State wins this one before a homecoming crowd, 38-35.

Article Hawaii Mentally prepared for Weather and altitude got to Logan a Day early Please read article:

 https://www.staradvertiser.com/sports/20101022_Red-hot_Warriors_welcome_cold.html

Hawaii (-3) 33 UTAH STATE 24
Hawaii is still not getting the respect that they deserve and the Warriors are now 6-1 ATS after beating a previously unbeaten Nevada team last week. Hawaii's average point margin in 6 games against Division 1A opponents is +3.3 (32.8 points to 29.5 points allowed) and the Warriors have faced a schedule that is 4.0 points tougher than average, which would make Hawaii 7.3 points better than an average team based on point differentials. Utah State, meanwhile, has been out-scored by an average of 12.2 points (18.4 to 30.6) in their 5 games against 1A opponents while playing a schedule that is 4.2 points tougher than average, which makes the Aggies 8.0 points worse than average using point differentials. Home field advantage is 3.8 points, so a team that is -8.0 points should be an underdog of 11.5 points at home against a team that is +7.3 points. I actually don't use point margins in my math model, but that math is even more favorable for Hawaii using compensated yardage.



Hawaii's offense has averaged 462 yards at 7.3 yards per play against 1A teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and I don't see the Aggies' mediocre defense (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team) doing much to stop that attack. Utah State's offense is 0.8 yppl worse than average with just 4.7 yppl gained against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Hawaii has an underrated defense that has allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl, so Utah State should score much more than their 18.4 points average. The two defenses are about the same, but Hawaii has a huge edge offensively and quarterback Byrant Moniz has thrown just 4 interceptions on 283 pass attempts this season, so turnovers don't figure to be a problem. My math model projects Hawaii at 489 yards at 7.3 yppl and just 304 yards at 4.8 yppl for Utah State in what should be a double-digit win for the Warriors. The only problem is a negative 1-24 ATS subset of a 36-90-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that is based on Hawaii's upset win over Nevada last week, but the Warriors would have to suffer a major letdown not to cover such a small spread in this game. That angle has a 56% chance of working going forward and my math model gives Hawaii a 62% chance of covering, so the angle only drops Hawaii's chance of covering to about 56%, which is still very good. Utah State's wins have come against Division 1AA Idaho State and against a bad BYU team that's 2-5 straight up. In their other 4 games the Aggies have lost by an average of 19 points, so I see no reason why they'll compete against a good Hawaii team that is still under the radar.