Shoot middle, play opening line, or both?

Question

Ok, so I just got back into football and the only reason is because I recently found a local book that pretty much offers opening lines at 20 cent prices and I can get current lines for 5 cents. My question is what is the best value play when there are moves in the line.

So for instance, I can get today's Bowling Green O/U for 64.5 while my other line is 72.5. I would play the over 64.5 on one side and under 72.5 on the other and/or I could also just play the over 64.5, but keep in mind I need to pay 20 cent juice for this line.

For NCAA football I have been tracking 4+ point moves in the O/U for the last three weeks and according to my records if I would have shot the middle, it would have hit 5 out of 15 times and if I would have bet with the move on the original line it would have went 11-4. If I were to have played $100 for each bet I would have been +700 shooting the middle and +$620 playing only the original line.

Obviously, looking at the end numbers, just shooting for the middle is a more profitable play the past three weeks, but would it be in the long run? Also, I have been only tracking 4+ point differences, but should I look at a lower number? If you were me, how would you attack these opening lines for 20 cent prices?

jmj0013 · Answer

Ok, so I just got back into football and the only reason is because I recently found a local book that pretty much offers opening lines at 20 cent prices and I can get current lines for 5 cents. My question is what is the best value play when there are moves in the line.

So for instance, I can get today's Bowling Green O/U for 64.5 while my other line is 72.5. I would play the over 64.5 on one side and under 72.5 on the other and/or I could also just play the over 64.5, but keep in mind I need to pay 20 cent juice for this line.

For NCAA football I have been tracking 4+ point moves in the O/U for the last three weeks and according to my records if I would have shot the middle, it would have hit 5 out of 15 times and if I would have bet with the move on the original line it would have went 11-4. If I were to have played $100 for each bet I would have been +700 shooting the middle and +$620 playing only the original line.

Obviously, looking at the end numbers, just shooting for the middle is a more profitable play the past three weeks, but would it be in the long run? Also, I have been only tracking 4+ point differences, but should I look at a lower number? If you were me, how would you attack these opening lines for 20 cent prices?

jmj0013 · Answer

Any insight?

jmj0013 · Answer

So I started playing four weeks ago going $100 each way to shoot the middle and so far I have hit two middles and pushed one.  Total I am up &#x2B;$140.  Had I just played $100 on the original line, I would be 18-13-1, but having to pay 20 cent juice I would have been &#x2B;$240.  These past three weeks have been pretty brutal, basically winning half and losing half and then having to pay the 20 cent juice.  The good thing is that at least I am up.  I can&#x27;t complain.

jmj0013 · Answer

So far for today I have seven games with a difference of 4&#x2B; points and five of those games have a difference of 7&#x2B; points.

Shark_Attack · Answer

Very interesting... so no matter how far the line moves, they will still offer the opening line at -120 juice?

Based on that, my hunch is that the best way to play it is to go for middles... play all of the games and just make a living off of the ones that hit at both ends...

Strangely though, the best bet of all might just be to bet the opposite direction of the line moves, laying the normal juice at the current line... have you tracked what your winning total would be if you had done that instead?

thorpe · Answer

Even with a 7 point spread, a middle on a total is still tough to hit. But you only risk about $12 to win $200 if my math is correct, so you hope to hit 1 in 10 bets.

But if a line has moved 7 points, that would cost you at least -200 to buy those points, so it would be more profitable to just play the opening lines at -120 but you'd have more risk.

jmj0013 · Answer

Shark_Attack, are you saying that if the line opened at 60 and moved to 55 to play the over 55 or under 55? From what I understand it sounds like you want me to play only the over 55 at 5 cent juice, is that corrrect?

So a recap for the day, I ended up trying to middle all of the 4+ point moves ($100 each way) and went 0-7 which I ended up losing $65. I also put another $100 on the 6+ point moves on just the original line and went 4-2, which netted me +160.

The past three weeks I have not middled one game out of 23, but did happen to push one, so I am -$115. Had I just played the original I would be 12-10 which is exactly break even. Prior to the past three weeks, there was at least one middle each week and even during week two, three middles had hit.

I would think as the season wore on, more middles would hit since the oddsmakers would be more sharp because now they have seen how teams play.

Shark_Attack · Answer

JMJ... first, you are correct, I was suggesting to take the "ending" line and bet the opposite way that it moved... so if it starts at 60 and moves to 55, you bet the over... the logic being that the books weren't so far off on the opening line, and that they are only offering you the "opportunity" to bet the opening line because they don't believe it will yield a profit over the long run. However, based on the numbers you have posted, it looks like that would be 10-11-1 (?) over the past 3 weeks, so still not profitable...

Secondly, I think your final statement is the most important point, and it would suggest that both your way and my way are more likely to be successful as the season wears along...

Probably best to keep tracking it until you can spot a clear advantage...

thorpe · Answer

You should focus on the games with lower totals. IE, a 5 point middle on a game with a total in the 40s is better than a 7 point middle for a game with a total in the 70s.

You need to be patient and remember middles are a grind. You are going to lose the juice or win 1 middle most weeks, then there will be a week where 5 out of 7 middles hit and that is your profit for the year.

jmj0013 · Answer

So far today I have six games with a 4&#x2B; point move and the memphis game yesterday was a 4.5 point move that I finally was able to hit the middle.Shark_attack I did run the same opposite numbers for the entire season and it came out just over a 50% win rate so not very good.Thorpe I was thinking the same way but so far I don&#x27;t really see much of a correlation of the lower total games hitting the middle. However ther have only been about 10 middles that hit all season. One thing I have noticed though is you would think the games with bigger difference 7&#x2B; point differences would be the ones hitting but not one has. In fact, if I had played all the 3&#x2B; point moves I would have hit another 5 middles but then again there would be more games to play so not much more profitable.I have not really been tracking games lines for moves but would anyone know if those plays would be good and a good difference? I noticed there is rarely any moves that are 3&#x2B; for the game lines and not much more for 2&#x2B;

Shoot middle, play opening line, or both?

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