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SNF College Football Week 7

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Posts: 52

SatNightFever05

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 1:52 PM ET #26

East Carolina -14 at Memphis, $220 to win $200

Week 7 Card
Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan, $550 to win $500
Virginia +8.5 vs. GT, $220 to win $200
UNC -3 vs. Miami, $220 to win $200
Navy +4 at Rutgers, $220 to win $200
V Tech -7 at Wake, $220 to win $200
East Carolina -14 at Memphis, $220 to win $200

Laroja

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 12241

Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 3:34 PM ET #27

where did you get -14?

Laroja

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 12241

Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 3:35 PM ET #28

Nvm I'm getting -14 also.

SatNightFever05

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Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 3:45 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

Nvm I'm getting -14 also.

yea, line's been plummeting all week.. assume this is just overreaction to ECU blowout loss last week.

Pirates have beaten Memphis by 16+ points or more each of last 4 seasons

Laroja

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 12241

Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 4:01 PM ET #30

No idea what's going on with that line. I think it opened at -16/-15.5 and now it's -14. May be a overreaction to the loss against Houston, but I can't seem to figure out why the anyone would be so keen to bet and Memphis enough to move the line by 1.5/2 points. You never know what your going to get with Ecar, there's the Ecar that scored 37 on SC; and the Ecar that scored 3 against Houston. I do like Ecar to win by 3tds. Depending where the line continues to go, I'll likely wager Ecar.

SatNightFever05

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 11:41 AM ET #31

Write-ups coming shortly..

Ohio State +4 at Illinois, $220 to win $200

South Florida -7 (-120) at UCONN, $220 to win $200

Florida State at Duke, Over 54, $220 to win $200

Week 7 Card
Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan, $550 to win $500
Virginia +8.5 vs. GT, $220 to win $200
UNC -3 vs. Miami, $220 to win $200
Navy +4 at Rutgers, $220 to win $200
V Tech -7 at Wake, $220 to win $200
East Carolina -14 at Memphis, $220 to win $200
Ohio State +4 at Illinois, $220 to win $200
South Florida -7 (-120) at UCONN, $220 to win $200
Florida State at Duke, Over 54, $220 to win $200

Arid_Torpor

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Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 2590

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 11:45 AM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

No idea what's going on with that line. I think it opened at -16/-15.5 and now it's -14. May be a overreaction to the loss against Houston, but I can't seem to figure out why the anyone would be so keen to bet and Memphis enough to move the line by 1.5/2 points. You never know what your going to get with Ecar, there's the Ecar that scored 37 on SC; and the Ecar that scored 3 against Houston. I do like Ecar to win by 3tds. Depending where the line continues to go, I'll likely wager Ecar.

If it had opened there, I wouldn't be stuck with ECU -17. Bleh. Still like the Pirates in this one, but getting such a non-optimal line kinda sucks.

Arid_Torpor

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Posts: 2590

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 11:47 AM ET #33

With you on Navy, ECU, USF, and Sparty. Like Virginia but like the under better--the only way they cover is with defense, imo.

Was leaning Illy, what are you thinking on OSU?

BOL, SNF

SatNightFever05

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 11:51 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

With you on Navy, ECU, USF, and Sparty. Like Virginia but like the under better--the only way they cover is with defense, imo.

Was leaning Illy, what are you thinking on OSU?

BOL, SNF

Think Illinois just getting a little too much love here.. OSU should have won last week if Miller didn't get hurt, and if they did, think this game is close to a PK..

OSU O looked a lot better after the suspended players came back.. just think OSU is desperate for a W here and don't want to fall to 0-3 in the conference.. and let's be honest, no one really think Ill is a top 15 team, their schedule has just been easy breezy

SatNightFever05

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Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 12:11 PM ET #35

Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan, $550 to win $500
No doubt UM has improved from LY, but this will still be a very tough test.. the 2 games UM has played against decent opponents, ND had 31 pts, 510 total yards, NW had 24 pts 450 total yards.. Sparty held Denard in check LY (85 rush yards on 21 carries, 3 INT's) and I think the UM O was better LY.. Denard's not going to get away with those 50.50 jump balls against a very good secondary for MSU.. Sparty should be able to do enough on offense to take this one
Michigan State- 30 Michigan- 21

Virginia +8.5 vs. GT, $220 to win $200
GT has issues stopping people.. at least 21 pts given up in every game but 1.. giving up 28 ppg on its 2 road games.. Tevin Washington has lost his passing touch, going from 70% completion to 50% completion in a matter of couple weeks.. Cavs off a bye and have actually outgained every one of its opponents this year..
Georgia Tech- 28 Virginia- 24

UNC -3 vs. Miami, $220 to win $200
Just not sold on Miami.. UNC 4-0 at home and has a pretty stout D.. Hurricanes 0-2 on the road and are giving up almost 200 yards per game on the ground.. yikes.. Tar Heels still think they are disrespected and are looking to make a statement
UNC- 28 Miami- 21

Navy +4 at Rutgers, $220 to win $200
Navy a sick 30-5 ATS when dogged on the road after losing b2b games SU.. Rutgers really smoke and mirrors here.. line overreaction to Navy's blowout loss, where they had the same total yards, and Rutgers blowout win, that came about by Pitt's inability to hold onto the ball.. think Navy rebounds here in a big way
Navy- 31 Rutgers- 21

SatNightFever05

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 12:18 PM ET #36

V Tech -7 at Wake, $220 to win $200
Wake getting too much love for the home win last week over FSU.. FSU gave that game away with TO's and still almost found a way to lose it.. While I'm not thrilled to lay a TD in conference road play, Hokies are just better on both sides of the ball.. not sure I see Wake playing 2 great games in a row
Virginia Tech- 34 Wake- 23

East Carolina -14 at Memphis, $220 to win $200
Have no clue why the line has been dropping.. who's really putting money on Memphis.. ECU beating Memphis by at least 15 points in every game the last 5 years.. Memphis is absolute garbage.. really not putting that much stock into ECU blowout last week vs Houston.. Pirates should roll here
ECU- 38 Memphis- 17

Ohio State +4 at Illinois, $220 to win $200
Too much love for Illini here.. OSU really should have beaten Neb last week and if Miller didn't get hurt and leave the game, they probably would of.. Illinois benefiting from very weak schedule to this pt and still has issues finding the end zone.. Think Buckeyes come out inspired and refuse to go to 0-3 in conference play
Ohio State- 24 Illinois- 20

South Florida -7 (-120) at UCONN, $220 to win $200
UCONN sucks.. USF had 10 days since they last played, should be able to iron out kinks from Thursday night beating to Pitt couple weeks ago.. let me say this again.. UCONN sucks.. not sure they'll be able to score on USF D that's typically pretty stout
South Florida- 27 UCONN- 13

Florida State at Duke, Over 54, $220 to win $200
FSU has given up 35 points in back to back games.. Duke has put up 31 and 48 its last 2 games.. Duke also giving up just under 280 pass yards per game.. FSU likes to throw it.. a lot.. so does Duke.. see lots of points here
Florida State- 34 Duke- 27

Arid_Torpor

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Joined: Nov, 2005

Posts: 2590

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 12:24 PM ET #37

Somehow I missed that Braxton Miller would be back this Saturday. Kinda like to go back and take confidence points away from Illinois in Boom's challenge.

Do still think it's a decent spot for Illinois though. They've kinda putzed around against a soft schedule, but they'll be gunning for Ohio State.

SatNightFever05

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Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 12:59 PM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by Arid_Torpor:

Somehow I missed that Braxton Miller would be back this Saturday. Kinda like to go back and take confidence points away from Illinois in Boom's challenge.

Do still think it's a decent spot for Illinois though. They've kinda putzed around against a soft schedule, but they'll be gunning for Ohio State.

Yea, I mean I can't fault anyone for being on Illinois here.. I just think OSU looked a lot better last week until the last 20 minutes or so and Illini getting little too much pub about 6-0 start even though their only really impressive win was vs ASU in an awful spot for the Devils

braskyman

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 47

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 1:35 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

So that's what it's

Texas +7.5 or more.. overreaction to OU loss + OSU huge win.. OSU good, but Texas D better than they showed this past week.. O should be able to move ball against OSU weak D

Hey, thought I would throw in my 2 cents on this one. Texas has not beaten anyone of note. Beat Rice, BYU, UCLA and Iowa St. If you look at the ISU game, Texas was VERY VERY fortunate with some turnovers that went there way inside ISU's 25 yd line. And their drives off those t.o.'s were only like 15 yds at most. They were also helped out drastically by penalties to keep stalled drives going AND a punt return for a TD after a 7 yd punt when the ISU coverage completly outran the crappy punt. Last week I liked OU BIG because Texas has LIVED off of crappy teams making mistakes and I won big.

OSU is not going to give Texas t.o.'s (3rd in Nation in T.O. margin at +2.00) while Texas is middle of pack at +0.40 just like OU did not give Texas breaks for them to cash in on. OSU is averaging a little over 1 more penalty per game than Texas so they may had a slight discipline edge there.

I know OSU's defense sucks, but if I have to chose between a proven quantity in OSU's offense with maybe the best WR in the country who put's up points on anyone (not to mention Texas' starting safety who missed last week is still questionable) versus an unproven Texas team that has been very fortunate to score the points they did against ISU and UCLA but when they ran into a buzz saw offense folded I'm taking OSU everytime. Especially if I can get it at -7. I'm even taking -7.5.

It got longer than I thought it would! Ha! GL on your plays!

CalBear

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 21426

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 2:07 PM ET #40

ramsfan568

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2011

Posts: 28

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 2:51 PM ET #41

Any thoughts on the #1 defense in the NATION - LSU ? They are 15 point favs. on the road against Tenn. I would be surprised if Tenn. makes a field goal. Any thoughts as to why the line is 15. Thanks

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10310

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 3:26 PM ET #42

FSU/Duke OVER...is easy $$$
*thought about Duke for a moment ....but not necessary...FSU scores over 50 L5 times here....
won 16 in a row....all by 19 or more....so not too fired up for Dukies.....may still get late cover but both should move ball...frustrated FSU O finally gets to move it...D not really focused here so Duke should trade for awhile anyway.....

on USF and UNC as well.....like Navy but may back off......or small ML play.........best of luck.....

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

NYCPRO

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 812

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 3:46 PM ET #43

BOL this week

SatNightFever05

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 5:06 PM ET #44

Cal

Rams

No real lean in that one.. gun to my head, prob lean to LSU, but don't think Tenn will be a pushover even w.o Bray

Bookie

Just checked my book.. FSU already up 2 pts since I locked it in couple hrs ago.. Navy is almost pure spot and trend play.. don't really like the Middies this year GL

NYC

you 2

SatNightFever05

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 3689

Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 12:26 PM ET #45

looks like final card.. BOL this week

Week 7 Card
Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan, $550 to win $500
Virginia +8.5 vs. GT, $220 to win $200
UNC -3 vs. Miami, $220 to win $200
Navy +4 at Rutgers, $220 to win $200
V Tech -7 at Wake, $220 to win $200
East Carolina -14 at Memphis, $220 to win $200
Ohio State +4 at Illinois, $220 to win $200
South Florida -7 (-120) at UCONN, $240 to win $200
Florida State at Duke, Over 54, $220 to win $200