I don't post very often in this forum, but I often compare my picks against some of the better cappers. I am a TCU alum and played for the FROGS. Over the years I have bet against TCU as much as I have with them. I am currently 8-2 ATS this year betting against them and on them in all TCU games. The frogs are ready to play tonight. I was at the team hotel last night and the players and coaches are focused. they know how much this games means in terms of national exposure and it's impact on recruiting. Especially when you are competing for the same athletes as the Big 12 schools in the state. The loss of Robert Henson might hurt, because he is so quick and makes tackles from sideline to sideline, but his backup is more than capable and has had significant playing time all year. I have won a lot of money on Boise the past three years, but there offense line is going to have trouble tonight. They not faced a defense that is as quick or as aggressive to the ball. Patterson had weeks to come up with blitz packages that will confuse the young QB and take advantage of an offense line that is not very athletic. Across the board, they have slow feet and and do not adjust to slanting and stunting defensive lineman like they will see tonight. TCU is finally healthy on offense and Dalton will be able to move the chains tonight and play ball control. Look for them to have success on the ground and set up play action pass situations for big plays. This game might be close for three quarters, but i look for TCU to pull away from them in the 4th quarter. They will not let another UTAH situation happen.
I have isolated five top plays for the bowl season and this is one of them. I normally bet a $1000 a game and stay away from teasers , but I am betting $3k on TCU and going to tease TCU and the under for $3K. This will not be a shootout and I believe there is some value in at TCU +3 under 52.
This is not a HOMER pick, I would go go the other way if thought it would put some change in my pocket.
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I don't post very often in this forum, but I often compare my picks against some of the better cappers. I am a TCU alum and played for the FROGS. Over the years I have bet against TCU as much as I have with them. I am currently 8-2 ATS this year betting against them and on them in all TCU games. The frogs are ready to play tonight. I was at the team hotel last night and the players and coaches are focused. they know how much this games means in terms of national exposure and it's impact on recruiting. Especially when you are competing for the same athletes as the Big 12 schools in the state. The loss of Robert Henson might hurt, because he is so quick and makes tackles from sideline to sideline, but his backup is more than capable and has had significant playing time all year. I have won a lot of money on Boise the past three years, but there offense line is going to have trouble tonight. They not faced a defense that is as quick or as aggressive to the ball. Patterson had weeks to come up with blitz packages that will confuse the young QB and take advantage of an offense line that is not very athletic. Across the board, they have slow feet and and do not adjust to slanting and stunting defensive lineman like they will see tonight. TCU is finally healthy on offense and Dalton will be able to move the chains tonight and play ball control. Look for them to have success on the ground and set up play action pass situations for big plays. This game might be close for three quarters, but i look for TCU to pull away from them in the 4th quarter. They will not let another UTAH situation happen.
I have isolated five top plays for the bowl season and this is one of them. I normally bet a $1000 a game and stay away from teasers , but I am betting $3k on TCU and going to tease TCU and the under for $3K. This will not be a shootout and I believe there is some value in at TCU +3 under 52.
This is not a HOMER pick, I would go go the other way if thought it would put some change in my pocket.
Bibendi, ever since u got rid of Ms Duff things have gone to shit .............bring Hillary BACK!!!!!!! it will bring good luck Bring Hillary BACK!!!!
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Bibendi, ever since u got rid of Ms Duff things have gone to shit .............bring Hillary BACK!!!!!!! it will bring good luck Bring Hillary BACK!!!!
Well my mac n cheese dream proved spot on as the Pack covered. My Bookie made me put up a classic car as collateral ( left to me from my Gramps). So I bet 15 dimes on GB+4, and the 12 k owed is now clear and I'm up 3. Putting it all on your TCU pick. Lets all give our Bookies a miserable Christmas this year. Good luck Bibs and everyone else.
Rennick out
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Quote Originally Posted by WildBill2009:
Yo B,
Well my mac n cheese dream proved spot on as the Pack covered. My Bookie made me put up a classic car as collateral ( left to me from my Gramps). So I bet 15 dimes on GB+4, and the 12 k owed is now clear and I'm up 3. Putting it all on your TCU pick. Lets all give our Bookies a miserable Christmas this year. Good luck Bibs and everyone else.
I found some good info out there for all of those Boise State backers who think there offense is so dominant. I am not saying that they are not good, but we do have to take into account who their competition is. I tried to find the same kind of info for TCU's defense, but have not yet. If anyone can add to this that would be great.
Boise State currently averages 456.8 yards per game on offense this year, which ranks them 13th in the nation overall. The reason for such prolific numbers is due to the fact that they have no problem going from a spread attack with four wide receivers, then bring it in close in an I-formation on the following play.
That strategy has helped the Broncos keep opponents on their toes during the year given the talent they possess. Of course, it’s not hard to put up those type of numbers when eight of the defenses (nine if you count Idaho State, 118th in FCS) you face are ranked 71st or worse in total defense.
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I found some good info out there for all of those Boise State backers who think there offense is so dominant. I am not saying that they are not good, but we do have to take into account who their competition is. I tried to find the same kind of info for TCU's defense, but have not yet. If anyone can add to this that would be great.
Boise State currently averages 456.8 yards per game on offense this year, which ranks them 13th in the nation overall. The reason for such prolific numbers is due to the fact that they have no problem going from a spread attack with four wide receivers, then bring it in close in an I-formation on the following play.
That strategy has helped the Broncos keep opponents on their toes during the year given the talent they possess. Of course, it’s not hard to put up those type of numbers when eight of the defenses (nine if you count Idaho State, 118th in FCS) you face are ranked 71st or worse in total defense.
ronlou, you may have just sold me on the TCU pick. I was leaning TCU, but that read just cemented it for me. Thanks for the writeup. I just hope you're not some shit talker looking for attencion!
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ronlou, you may have just sold me on the TCU pick. I was leaning TCU, but that read just cemented it for me. Thanks for the writeup. I just hope you're not some shit talker looking for attencion!
The Poinsettia Bowl pits 10-2 TCU and 12-0 Boise St. in a matchup that has more quality than the Orange Bowl I have been pumped up for this game since it was announced. This game is actually being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, not the Smurf Turf of Boise. Why this is a misconception, I'm not sure TCU has 2 losses this season, Oklahoma in Norman and Utah in Salt Lake. This is where my capping is probably different than others. Boise does not have the athletes of Oklahoma, Boise did not play a team near the caliber of Boise. While I recognize TCU got destroyed by the Sooners, I am throwing that game out of my capping. Youd be surprised how good the Horned Frogs defense looks without those 436 yards and 35 points against them. One spot of bother was that Oklahoma didnt move the ball as convincingly as usual, they just hit for several big plays that blew the game wide open. 35-10 was a just final score, but Oklahoma played their starters the entire game and TCU was moving the ball but made a few bad turnovers.
Anyway I am going to start with Boise and the way to beat them...
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The Poinsettia Bowl pits 10-2 TCU and 12-0 Boise St. in a matchup that has more quality than the Orange Bowl I have been pumped up for this game since it was announced. This game is actually being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, not the Smurf Turf of Boise. Why this is a misconception, I'm not sure TCU has 2 losses this season, Oklahoma in Norman and Utah in Salt Lake. This is where my capping is probably different than others. Boise does not have the athletes of Oklahoma, Boise did not play a team near the caliber of Boise. While I recognize TCU got destroyed by the Sooners, I am throwing that game out of my capping. Youd be surprised how good the Horned Frogs defense looks without those 436 yards and 35 points against them. One spot of bother was that Oklahoma didnt move the ball as convincingly as usual, they just hit for several big plays that blew the game wide open. 35-10 was a just final score, but Oklahoma played their starters the entire game and TCU was moving the ball but made a few bad turnovers.
Anyway I am going to start with Boise and the way to beat them...
Boise St. has played some of the worst teams in the country. They ran up 582 yards against Idaho St. Enough said. Next they played a solid squad in Bowling Green. Bowling Green got the ball to start the game and drove down the field before missing a field goal. Boise had their way with the Bowling Green defense on the next 2 drives and put together long, time-consuming touchdown drives. Bowling Green then drove the ball right down the field again before missing another field goal. Kicker sucks. They also turned the ball over 3 times while driving in the 2nd half and still only lost 20-7. Bowling Green had 307 total yards and Boise had 340. Next they traveled to Autzen to face the Ducks. The 2nd drive for Oregon went like this...13 runs, 1 pass for 80 yards and nearly 6 minutes of clock. Powerful running games will get to this defense. Oregon then had a 3 yard punt to set Boise up at 26 yard line and they punched in a touchdown. Oregon got the ball back and ran it 6 times successfully before fumbling the ball away. Boise is amazing at converting turnovers into touchdowns. Oregon then allowed a quick TD before Oregon again drove down to the 17 before throwing an interception. Teams are not having trouble moving the ball on Boise they just cant hang on to the football when they get there. Boise then threw a pick to start the 2nd half before Oregon ran it in for a 24-13 deficit. Boise then hit right back with a 70 yard touchdown. TCU gave up big plays against Oklahoma. Spot of bother. Through 2.5 quarters Oregon had a 90/10 run/pass ratio. It worked too, other than turning the ball over. It wore out the Boise defense and they were unable to perform late in the game. Oregon missed another field goal to start the 4th quarter and were trailing 37-13. It appears Boise thought Oregon was going to continue running the ball as they threw it 4 successful times for a TD and the score was 37-20. Oregon then forced a 3 and out and passed the ball 5 times for another touchdown. After missing an extra point they were trailing 37-26. Oregon later tacked on another touchdown before an unsuccessful onside attempt. Boise let Oregon do whatever they wanted on offense. They wanted to run the ball early and literally did almost every snap. All they did late was pass the ball and that worked too. Did the run set up the pass late, or could the Boise D just not stop the O at all. No questioning their Offense moved the ball well, but a lot of it was set up with turnovers and missing field goals for good field position. Later in the season another team in Nevada who has a solid running attack was able to put up 31 second half points against this Boise defense that seems to tire when you pound the ball. The big question in this game is the Boise offense vs. the TCU defense. The trouble spot here is that Boise has yet to play a tough defense all year. This is definitely advantage TCU. How can Boise be prepared for a defense that is faster than anything they have played? On the other hand, TCU has played an offense better than TCU's and will not be in awe.
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Boise St. has played some of the worst teams in the country. They ran up 582 yards against Idaho St. Enough said. Next they played a solid squad in Bowling Green. Bowling Green got the ball to start the game and drove down the field before missing a field goal. Boise had their way with the Bowling Green defense on the next 2 drives and put together long, time-consuming touchdown drives. Bowling Green then drove the ball right down the field again before missing another field goal. Kicker sucks. They also turned the ball over 3 times while driving in the 2nd half and still only lost 20-7. Bowling Green had 307 total yards and Boise had 340. Next they traveled to Autzen to face the Ducks. The 2nd drive for Oregon went like this...13 runs, 1 pass for 80 yards and nearly 6 minutes of clock. Powerful running games will get to this defense. Oregon then had a 3 yard punt to set Boise up at 26 yard line and they punched in a touchdown. Oregon got the ball back and ran it 6 times successfully before fumbling the ball away. Boise is amazing at converting turnovers into touchdowns. Oregon then allowed a quick TD before Oregon again drove down to the 17 before throwing an interception. Teams are not having trouble moving the ball on Boise they just cant hang on to the football when they get there. Boise then threw a pick to start the 2nd half before Oregon ran it in for a 24-13 deficit. Boise then hit right back with a 70 yard touchdown. TCU gave up big plays against Oklahoma. Spot of bother. Through 2.5 quarters Oregon had a 90/10 run/pass ratio. It worked too, other than turning the ball over. It wore out the Boise defense and they were unable to perform late in the game. Oregon missed another field goal to start the 4th quarter and were trailing 37-13. It appears Boise thought Oregon was going to continue running the ball as they threw it 4 successful times for a TD and the score was 37-20. Oregon then forced a 3 and out and passed the ball 5 times for another touchdown. After missing an extra point they were trailing 37-26. Oregon later tacked on another touchdown before an unsuccessful onside attempt. Boise let Oregon do whatever they wanted on offense. They wanted to run the ball early and literally did almost every snap. All they did late was pass the ball and that worked too. Did the run set up the pass late, or could the Boise D just not stop the O at all. No questioning their Offense moved the ball well, but a lot of it was set up with turnovers and missing field goals for good field position. Later in the season another team in Nevada who has a solid running attack was able to put up 31 second half points against this Boise defense that seems to tire when you pound the ball. The big question in this game is the Boise offense vs. the TCU defense. The trouble spot here is that Boise has yet to play a tough defense all year. This is definitely advantage TCU. How can Boise be prepared for a defense that is faster than anything they have played? On the other hand, TCU has played an offense better than TCU's and will not be in awe.
Honestly to run through all of Boise's games is a waste of time. They havent played a team with as much quality as TCU and playing in the WAC isnt going to help. They have only left the smurf turf twice this year to play decent competition. Both of those games they didnt have the home crowd to feed off of late in the game and luckily they had big enough leads to hang on to. A common theme between those 2 teams is that they ran the ball early and often and wore out the Boise D. I like TCU to run the ball early on. One game I looked very closely at is the TCU-Utah game. TCU played teams better than Boise this year. They jumped out to an early 10-0 lead on Utah on the road. This Utah offense can be very hard to contain. This game was . Utah forced 2 turnovers, 1 right before halftime that lead to a Utah field goal that pulled the game within 10-6. Twice TCU drives reached the Utah 20 before Dalton took a huge sack to knock them out of field goal range. Shooting themselves in the foot. Yet Utah could not do anythign against this defense. TCU drove down the field late in the game and missed a 26 yarder giving the ball back to Utah only for them to go 3 and out. Utah could not move the ball against this defense and TCU was moving it at will until they reached the redzone. TCU's kicker was a real goat in this one as he then missed another 35 yard field goal. Must have been frustrating for this TCU Defense as they gave a great team one last chance. A 4th down conversion was the catalyst as Utah eventually punched in a touchdown to maintain the undefeated season. BTW, ALABAMA WILL CRUSH UTAH. TCU got the ball back and threw a pick to end the game. I wouldnt say Utah won this game by any means, TCU lost it. Their kicker had an uncharacteristically bad day. They took terrible sacks bumping them out of field goal range and basically did whatever they could to not win the game. Boise has an incredible penchant for creating red zone turnovers. This will be the battle that decides the game. TCU is going to move the ball. If they can score 50% of their redzone opportunities they win the game. Boise wont be able to move the ball at ease and Kellen Moore wont have a juicy pocket to throw from. He will be pressured and forced to make uncomfortable throws. Yeah I've head how great he is, but like Tom Brady in the superbowl well see how he does with some dirt on the jersey. Ian Johnson's last game of his 12 year collegiate career should be a good one. TCU will have Tomlinson on the sideline and sport the #45 of Sammy Baugh for a little inspiration. TCU will rotate in the fresh backs and judging by their 52 rushes last week they will pound the Broncos defense into submission.
Prediction:
TCU:24
Boise:14
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Honestly to run through all of Boise's games is a waste of time. They havent played a team with as much quality as TCU and playing in the WAC isnt going to help. They have only left the smurf turf twice this year to play decent competition. Both of those games they didnt have the home crowd to feed off of late in the game and luckily they had big enough leads to hang on to. A common theme between those 2 teams is that they ran the ball early and often and wore out the Boise D. I like TCU to run the ball early on. One game I looked very closely at is the TCU-Utah game. TCU played teams better than Boise this year. They jumped out to an early 10-0 lead on Utah on the road. This Utah offense can be very hard to contain. This game was . Utah forced 2 turnovers, 1 right before halftime that lead to a Utah field goal that pulled the game within 10-6. Twice TCU drives reached the Utah 20 before Dalton took a huge sack to knock them out of field goal range. Shooting themselves in the foot. Yet Utah could not do anythign against this defense. TCU drove down the field late in the game and missed a 26 yarder giving the ball back to Utah only for them to go 3 and out. Utah could not move the ball against this defense and TCU was moving it at will until they reached the redzone. TCU's kicker was a real goat in this one as he then missed another 35 yard field goal. Must have been frustrating for this TCU Defense as they gave a great team one last chance. A 4th down conversion was the catalyst as Utah eventually punched in a touchdown to maintain the undefeated season. BTW, ALABAMA WILL CRUSH UTAH. TCU got the ball back and threw a pick to end the game. I wouldnt say Utah won this game by any means, TCU lost it. Their kicker had an uncharacteristically bad day. They took terrible sacks bumping them out of field goal range and basically did whatever they could to not win the game. Boise has an incredible penchant for creating red zone turnovers. This will be the battle that decides the game. TCU is going to move the ball. If they can score 50% of their redzone opportunities they win the game. Boise wont be able to move the ball at ease and Kellen Moore wont have a juicy pocket to throw from. He will be pressured and forced to make uncomfortable throws. Yeah I've head how great he is, but like Tom Brady in the superbowl well see how he does with some dirt on the jersey. Ian Johnson's last game of his 12 year collegiate career should be a good one. TCU will have Tomlinson on the sideline and sport the #45 of Sammy Baugh for a little inspiration. TCU will rotate in the fresh backs and judging by their 52 rushes last week they will pound the Broncos defense into submission.
bibendi23, i follow u on all your games and i am still up, but for bowl games lost on memphis and troy....you will turn this around on tcu tonight. i am going the amount of my 2 losses for the bowls and i will continue to follow your picks
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tcu
bibendi23, i follow u on all your games and i am still up, but for bowl games lost on memphis and troy....you will turn this around on tcu tonight. i am going the amount of my 2 losses for the bowls and i will continue to follow your picks
I don't post very often in this forum, but I often compare my picks against some of the better cappers. I am a TCU alum and played for the FROGS. Over the years I have bet against TCU as much as I have with them. I am currently 8-2 ATS this year betting against them and on them in all TCU games. The frogs are ready to play tonight. I was at the team hotel last night and the players and coaches are focused. they know how much this games means in terms of national exposure and it's impact on recruiting. Especially when you are competing for the same athletes as the Big 12 schools in the state. The loss of Robert Henson might hurt, because he is so quick and makes tackles from sideline to sideline, but his backup is more than capable and has had significant playing time all year. I have won a lot of money on Boise the past three years, but there offense line is going to have trouble tonight. They not faced a defense that is as quick or as aggressive to the ball. Patterson had weeks to come up with blitz packages that will confuse the young QB and take advantage of an offense line that is not very athletic. Across the board, they have slow feet and and do not adjust to slanting and stunting defensive lineman like they will see tonight. TCU is finally healthy on offense and Dalton will be able to move the chains tonight and play ball control. Look for them to have success on the ground and set up play action pass situations for big plays. This game might be close for three quarters, but i look for TCU to pull away from them in the 4th quarter. They will not let another UTAH situation happen.
I have isolated five top plays for the bowl season and this is one of them. I normally bet a $1000 a game and stay away from teasers , but I am betting $3k on TCU and going to tease TCU and the under for $3K. This will not be a shootout and I believe there is some value in at TCU +3 under 52.
This is not a HOMER pick, I would go go the other way if thought it would put some change in my pocket.
RON LOU
You had me at " I dont post very often" LOL
GL tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by ronlou:
I don't post very often in this forum, but I often compare my picks against some of the better cappers. I am a TCU alum and played for the FROGS. Over the years I have bet against TCU as much as I have with them. I am currently 8-2 ATS this year betting against them and on them in all TCU games. The frogs are ready to play tonight. I was at the team hotel last night and the players and coaches are focused. they know how much this games means in terms of national exposure and it's impact on recruiting. Especially when you are competing for the same athletes as the Big 12 schools in the state. The loss of Robert Henson might hurt, because he is so quick and makes tackles from sideline to sideline, but his backup is more than capable and has had significant playing time all year. I have won a lot of money on Boise the past three years, but there offense line is going to have trouble tonight. They not faced a defense that is as quick or as aggressive to the ball. Patterson had weeks to come up with blitz packages that will confuse the young QB and take advantage of an offense line that is not very athletic. Across the board, they have slow feet and and do not adjust to slanting and stunting defensive lineman like they will see tonight. TCU is finally healthy on offense and Dalton will be able to move the chains tonight and play ball control. Look for them to have success on the ground and set up play action pass situations for big plays. This game might be close for three quarters, but i look for TCU to pull away from them in the 4th quarter. They will not let another UTAH situation happen.
I have isolated five top plays for the bowl season and this is one of them. I normally bet a $1000 a game and stay away from teasers , but I am betting $3k on TCU and going to tease TCU and the under for $3K. This will not be a shootout and I believe there is some value in at TCU +3 under 52.
This is not a HOMER pick, I would go go the other way if thought it would put some change in my pocket.
Youd be surprised how good the Horned Frogs defense looks without those 436 yards and 35 points against them. One spot of bother was that Oklahoma didnt move the ball as convincingly as usual, they just hit for several big plays that blew the game wide open. 35-10 was a just final score, but Oklahoma played their starters the entire game and TCU was moving the ball but made a few bad turnovers.
[/Quote]
TCU and USC are the only two defenses in the nation to give up 4 or less yards per play.
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Youd be surprised how good the Horned Frogs defense looks without those 436 yards and 35 points against them. One spot of bother was that Oklahoma didnt move the ball as convincingly as usual, they just hit for several big plays that blew the game wide open. 35-10 was a just final score, but Oklahoma played their starters the entire game and TCU was moving the ball but made a few bad turnovers.
[/Quote]
TCU and USC are the only two defenses in the nation to give up 4 or less yards per play.
ronlou's opinions are valid. I am a TCU alum and the team was asked who they wanted to play for the bowl season....they all said the highest possible ranked team. They have played a strong schedule and easily held their own versus tough teams like OU, Utah, BYU even a physical Stanford team - OU punted 9 x's in that game.....that will show tonight when the front 7's bang heads in the trenches, you'll see the talent difference and by 4th quarter realize. Now Henson is out on Defense which will be a story tonight, but the defensive depth is tremendous, as you'll see Washington step in as a formidable and seamless transition. Take TCU, there is a reason they are favored. (i.e byu/az the other night)
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ronlou's opinions are valid. I am a TCU alum and the team was asked who they wanted to play for the bowl season....they all said the highest possible ranked team. They have played a strong schedule and easily held their own versus tough teams like OU, Utah, BYU even a physical Stanford team - OU punted 9 x's in that game.....that will show tonight when the front 7's bang heads in the trenches, you'll see the talent difference and by 4th quarter realize. Now Henson is out on Defense which will be a story tonight, but the defensive depth is tremendous, as you'll see Washington step in as a formidable and seamless transition. Take TCU, there is a reason they are favored. (i.e byu/az the other night)
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