Spreads WAAAYYY Off For Thursday/Friday Games

Let's make some money early this week! Then we can risk all this free money on some biiiigg bets Saturday. 

I've capped 16 games so far, and about half the spreads were all spot on. But the most notable exceptions were Thursday/Friday games! 

And remember, I gave you the Purdue gem last week! Whose spread was ssoooooo off. So here we go:

Coastal Carolina -3.5. Man, this team is ranked top 20. Passer rating of 234. Yes, they have a very very easy schedule. But if you look at the passer ratings of good qbs against easy schedules, they don't go this high. 80% completion rate. 62% 3rd down conversions. 550 yards per game. Mediocre teams just don't get these kind of numbers against easy schedules. This team is good. And speaking of easy schedules, who has App St. faced? Miami, and ULL. And ULL has had an easy schedule as well. App St. lost both games against their two most decent opponents. Now App St. has good numbers. This is a good team. 4-2 with a qb rating of 146 and a good runningback. But their defense gives up big numbers. And their offense only converts 33% of 3rd downs, their biggest fault. Coastal does not throw interceptions, so their will not be many easy points here. In their almost lost to Buffalo, qb McCall fumbled 2 times. Indeed, Coastal has 8 fumbles in 6 games. Butt App St. has only caused 3 fumbles on the year, so this is a smaller concern, despite it being the biggest concern for the game. I capped this game at -13 for Coastal. They are an elite team. Get some chicken here.

Tulane +13.5. Vegas is off here. And it's not their fault. SMU is fantastic, 6-0. And Tulane sucks, 1-5. Bottom line: SMU gets 500 yards per game to Tulane's 400. And they give up 75 fewer yards. And Tulane has -7 TO ratio to SMUs -1. So there you go, 4 drive differential, 28 points to SMU. But, Tulane has played Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB, and Houston. SMU has played TCU. So three more difficult games. This has got to be worth at least 7 points. So Tulane's gonna lose by 21. But, if Tulane, for some reason, decides not to turn the ball over 2 times like usual, and SMU, for some reason, decides not to cause 2 turnovers, like usual, Tulane is gonna win the TO battle. So there is another 7 points back. So here you go, Vegas is right on the money, 14 points for SMU. But the final point to consider, is all of this comes as SMU averages 41ppg 45% 3rd downs, and 511 ypg and Tulane 33ppg, 36% 3rd downs, 400 ypg. SMU has had a very good season and Tulane a very bad season. I expect both mediocre teams to revert to their means. Tulane should win 50% of their games. SMU 70% of theirs. Tulane should play a little better, and SMU a little worse. Trends reverting to their means. So with this in mind, I give Tulane an extra .5 point. In fact, I would give them another 7. Mostly because I think their schedule IS really difficult and 7 points was probably too small for schedule difficulty adjustment. I cap this game as Tulane +7. But, it's up to you. SMU 34 - Tulane 27.

Arkansas State +17.5

ULL is equal to Ark St. in every category offensively except for rushing, with runningbacks's out running Ark 5.2ypc to 3.5ypc. Not even close. But ULL doesn't have good rush D and that will allow Ark St. to get most of that back. And Ark St. likes to pass anyway, even if rush doesn't break through. Both teams score 30ppg, so really even here. But D is different. Ark St. D is terrible, giving up 47ppg to ULLs 21ppg. So easily, ULL would win by 14 points. But with schedule difficulty adjustment, I have to give Ark St 3 points back. Ark St. +11. 

Memphis vs CFU - No Play

Memphis is a slightly better team, but with their -9 TO ratio, love for the deep pass, and CFU's 7 interceptions and great pass D, many points will be decided by a 50/50 ball being intercepted or not. CFU has played 1 tougher team than Memphis, but Memphis had to face Miss St and UTSA, not picnic teams. You get 2.5 points to take Memphis because of the schedule adjustment/home team, but this game could easily end up a blow out either way. If you have to make a play, go for either team to win by 10. 

Love the first two 

So... You are penalizing Appalachian because they lost to ULL and Miami.... Who are both better than anybody Coastal has played thus far.... Not to mention ECU and Marshall who they beat.... Who are ALSO better than anybody Coastal has played.... 

You will penalize Appy for that..... But not use that same logic when rating Coastal offensive numbers?

Just using FEI numbers here for simplicity.... (Throw out citadel they arent even FBS)

KU #123 Def #97 off

Buffalo  #110 def  #71 off

Umass  #127 off #130 def

ULM  #110 offense #124 defense

Ark St  #80 offense #128 defense

Coastal has played all of 1 game against a top 100 defense and that was #97.... and they have yet to play an offense in the top 50.

Appy schedule SIGNIFICANTLY better. And they will be the best team Coastal has played and its not even really close. Im not saying you are wrong but through the first 7 weeks those numbers mean diddly squat for Coastal bro.

Best wishes this week. 

I certainly agree with this. CSTL is living off of last season and these cup cake teams.  The Best opponent CSTL has faced is Buffalo and Buffalo has 2 one point wins.  thats 2 points from 1-5.  This is most certainly a step up in class here. and oh App St. only 28-2 last 30 home games coming off a crap azz road loss.  If App St. has any kind of heart and coaching they will be ready to get the division lead.  They certainly didn't look good last week.

Nothing but respect Peace your doing great this season and I like your other plays.

Either way best wishes and lots of luck 

to some degree, I think your 3 picks are based on one simple idea..... one that I tend to agree with..

namely, teams having great seasons (esp. relative to expectations... Alabama, Clemson, Ohio state are expected to be undefeated or 1-loss teams for the year) are almost AUTO-TAILs for me..  they just seem to have to so much energy......

but then on these 3 picks, you get into the one thing I also look at - the opposition.

CC plays App State... App State is a very good team. and having a good season too....... I do think here I like the CC positive energy and would take them ATS. I will note that sagarin's 3 power ratings I watch have CC as 1 point, 1 point and 5 point favourites. the 5 points is based on recent play power rating. so not much value there.

LL plays Ark State... again, I like the LL energy.. and again I am a bit wary of the opponent.. Ark State. very high powered passing game... 

SMU plays Tulane..... Tulane is a weird team. lots of talent as it's got a good geographic location........ I do like SMU but wish the opponent was Tulsa, South Florida or Temple (I realize the spreads would be different.. but I like the dynamics better).

so I do like all 3 as I like the big momentum teams .. a bit wary of all 3 of the opponents..... and I would note the totals for all 3 games are very high. LL and SMU especially (72, 76)

@spottie2935

@GENERALWIZDOM

 With the same QB, Coastal Carolina beat App St and ULL last year. If Coastal was given a schedule with good teams, they would beat them. 

@GENERALWIZDOM

 It's the same story as last year. Same numbers last year. If Coastal had App St or ULL schedule to date, they would be undefeated.

@PeAceMaKer7690

Well Good Luck to you 

CSTL was a home dog now a road favorite. Line wise I am down with this game.  Win or lose don't know how this plays out.  Either way best wishes. 

I like your other 2 anyways 

All about Coastal. Think this should be closer to a TD spread. Went with 2U at -3. 

Coastal is going to smash appy… appy doesn’t have the same defense they’ve had in years past … coastal has a great defense … there should be a ton of points cause app st will have to play catch up 

Never underestimate Too Lame's ability to under perform.

@IncognitoZR

 I did consider the fact that Tulane is terrible, but I am sticking with my gut on this one. 

Best of luck. Do your thing. 

I watched that App State game the other night. I think my largest bet this college season will be on Coastal this week. Probably all of last weekend's profits. I think this is great value here. And if I lose I'm just a week behind. 

@Degenerate

 Generally basing how a team played last week isn’t usually a good thing to do 

however, we saw that app state secondary and defense against the pass is very bad 

coastal should be able to do what they want through the air 

we also saw Brice not take care of the ball , so if he does that again this week they are in even bigger trouble 

The issue with coastal is their defense has looked suspect against any team with a pulse. Seems hard to imagine a way that app state doesn’t score 28+ at home. So if that’s the case, and someone wants to bet coastal at -3.5 or -4, the over has to be an auto play. 

@Pro_Fball_Picks

 Agreed, 45-31 CC

@PeAceMaKer7690

 So Arkansas St. giving up 584 ypg. doesn't worry you? I just skip their games as far as betting dogs or taking points. GL with your plays.

@OddShaad

When you consider both offensive and defensive yards for this game, Arkansas St. is at a 170 yard disadvantage. Median starting position on the 25, even if ULL scores every possession, that is 2 scores. So 6 to 14 points. 

I am not worried because I am given so many points to make up for this. I needed 11 points, and I got them, and more. How many points do you require for a defense that gives up 200 yards more per game? Personally, I always pick a number. I don't just say "a lot" or "there is no number high enough." In fact, you found the edge here. My edge is seeing that they gave too many points for a defense that isn't  bad enough to justify those points. 

I am not worried because I am given so many points to make up for this. I needed 11 points, and I got them, and more. How many points do you require for a defense that gives up 200 yards more per game?

@PeAceMaKer7690

We just got different ways of capping, I'm not saying mines is right or yours is wrong. As far as the points needed there's not enough for me because of their offense they're not going to get +21 or more type lines. But worse case scenario and the offense doesn't do their usual numbers and you need them to make a stop they're not going to be able to because they have shown they can't do it all year so far. Thanks for explaining the thinking behind it though with some logic, as you've done homework stand by it, once again GL.

@OddShaad

 What a great, polite, and thoughtful response! You are a great person to chat with. The next question is what are the odds their offense doesn't do enough, and I don't have an answer for that. But you are absolutely right, that could certainly happen. They lost to Washington, Georgia Southern, and Coastal Carolina by 107 points, or 36 ppg. Yikes! I am just going with the point averages, but the median game may be they lose by 20. I guess I just like averages over medians. Best of luck however you bet this weekend!