Let's make some money early this week! Then we can risk all this free money on some biiiigg bets Saturday.
I've capped 16 games so far, and about half the spreads were all spot on. But the most notable exceptions were Thursday/Friday games!
And remember, I gave you the Purdue gem last week! Whose spread was ssoooooo off. So here we go:
Coastal Carolina -3.5. Man, this team is ranked top 20. Passer rating of 234. Yes, they have a very very easy schedule. But if you look at the passer ratings of good qbs against easy schedules, they don't go this high. 80% completion rate. 62% 3rd down conversions. 550 yards per game. Mediocre teams just don't get these kind of numbers against easy schedules. This team is good. And speaking of easy schedules, who has App St. faced? Miami, and ULL. And ULL has had an easy schedule as well. App St. lost both games against their two most decent opponents. Now App St. has good numbers. This is a good team. 4-2 with a qb rating of 146 and a good runningback. But their defense gives up big numbers. And their offense only converts 33% of 3rd downs, their biggest fault. Coastal does not throw interceptions, so their will not be many easy points here. In their almost lost to Buffalo, qb McCall fumbled 2 times. Indeed, Coastal has 8 fumbles in 6 games. Butt App St. has only caused 3 fumbles on the year, so this is a smaller concern, despite it being the biggest concern for the game. I capped this game at -13 for Coastal. They are an elite team. Get some chicken here.
Tulane +13.5. Vegas is off here. And it's not their fault. SMU is fantastic, 6-0. And Tulane sucks, 1-5. Bottom line: SMU gets 500 yards per game to Tulane's 400. And they give up 75 fewer yards. And Tulane has -7 TO ratio to SMUs -1. So there you go, 4 drive differential, 28 points to SMU. But, Tulane has played Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB, and Houston. SMU has played TCU. So three more difficult games. This has got to be worth at least 7 points. So Tulane's gonna lose by 21. But, if Tulane, for some reason, decides not to turn the ball over 2 times like usual, and SMU, for some reason, decides not to cause 2 turnovers, like usual, Tulane is gonna win the TO battle. So there is another 7 points back. So here you go, Vegas is right on the money, 14 points for SMU. But the final point to consider, is all of this comes as SMU averages 41ppg 45% 3rd downs, and 511 ypg and Tulane 33ppg, 36% 3rd downs, 400 ypg. SMU has had a very good season and Tulane a very bad season. I expect both mediocre teams to revert to their means. Tulane should win 50% of their games. SMU 70% of theirs. Tulane should play a little better, and SMU a little worse. Trends reverting to their means. So with this in mind, I give Tulane an extra .5 point. In fact, I would give them another 7. Mostly because I think their schedule IS really difficult and 7 points was probably too small for schedule difficulty adjustment. I cap this game as Tulane +7. But, it's up to you. SMU 34 - Tulane 27.
Arkansas State +17.5
ULL is equal to Ark St. in every category offensively except for rushing, with runningbacks's out running Ark 5.2ypc to 3.5ypc. Not even close. But ULL doesn't have good rush D and that will allow Ark St. to get most of that back. And Ark St. likes to pass anyway, even if rush doesn't break through. Both teams score 30ppg, so really even here. But D is different. Ark St. D is terrible, giving up 47ppg to ULLs 21ppg. So easily, ULL would win by 14 points. But with schedule difficulty adjustment, I have to give Ark St 3 points back. Ark St. +11.
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