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TD Week 10

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Posted: #26
Added a parlay for fun:

Nevada +22
Richmond / Villanova  Under 50
New Hampshire -3
NDSU / SDSU Under 52.5

risk 0.1 to win 1.08 units
 
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Posted: #27
Thanks everyone for stopping in last night and today....  the alarm clock is set for before 5:00am tomorrow so I better get my arse to bed.  .... Halloween trick or treating with the kiddos tomorrow night.  Probably won't be around to talk much football until Wednesday.  Hope everyone enjoys that Tuesday night MACtion!

 
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Posted: #28
You are the only player I actually tail, I appreciate all the hard work sincerely. Thanks and good luck. I do wish you were on my Canes hahaha. Yeah I know it is a toss up between them and Wisky on who is the worse undefeated team hahaha.
 
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Posted: #29
Had this typed out and my comp froze so mad I have to retype this.

Congrats on your year.  You're doing well.  You made 3 mistakes here though imo.  Not to be overly critical, but I feel strongly about these so I think it's worth a comment.

Texas is a mistake.  They aren't gonna score on TCU.  If you want to hope for a 13 to 10 loss again be my guest.  But they have no margin of error on defense and the odds are TCU finds a way to get 23-24 points.  However, I think under 47 is a decent play.  Texas scored 13 at home on Ok St.  I just can't back a team with offense that anemic.  TCU needs this game.  And look, I liked ISU last week.  Every game is its own entity.  Texas is due for a clunker and this is a perfect spot for that.

Oregon is a mistake.  They lost 59 to 7 the previous week at Stanford.  You're putting way too much stock into a performance vs a bad Utah team.  Oregon CANNOT throw the ball.  And Wash is gonna be all over that run.  Oregon is never good on defense on the road.  Yes, they're improved and maybe not a lock to give up 50, but they're giving up at least 30, probably low 40's.  Wash runs the ball about as well as Stanford.  I'd like a Wash a ton at 21 or less.  At 26 I still lean that way bc Oregon has no QB.  They also play uptempo to extend the game.  If Oregon didn't win last week, you wouldn't take them this week.  So don't let that one game influence you here.  That team is terrible.

I don't know why you like SC.  I have seen other posts on SC.  I don't love Georgia a ton at 23.5 ( I do 20.5 or under), but again where is SC scoring in this game?  They lost by 30 at Georgia 2 years ago.  14 at home last year (=22 pt loss on road) vs a team that wasn't very good.  This is their first road game vs a really good team.  Their schedule has been uber soft.  I think they get crushed here.  Yeah, maybe they lose by 23 exactly somehow and cover, but they could lose by 35.  I think there's more margin of error with Georgia than SC even at this number.  SC scored 15 at Tenn . . .13 at home vs Kentucky.  17 at home vs La Tech.  Those are bad defenses.  Now they're at Georgia with a stifling defense.  You're basically banking on a great defensive effort from SC.  And thing is they gave up 27 at home to Vandy so I don't think you can reasonably expect them to give up under 30 here which means your bet is looking pretty dicey.   I guess you're hoping for 34-14 here?  Idk I think they get 0-10 points.  I like SC's effort, but my gut says Georgia by 30+
 
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Posted: #30
TD,  I thought you were busy or tired or something foolish?  Looks like pretty deep card.

Looks like the same old song in the FCS.  When you like a team you'll play the heck out of them.   I went 6-6 in the FCS last week ($25 each) until my big boy bet on the SHSU line and total under.  That FCS -120 hurt me some but it was fun.  

I play a solid $50 across the board on FBS games. Lower on FCS and totals and TT's because never sure I have solid info or good judgement.  If I don't feel comfortable betting a full unit on a FBS game then I need to back out and not play at all.  If I bet a sorry azz 1/2  unit and win then I feel like I lost.

Stay Hard and fill me in on how your coaching is going?

Remind me tell you a old school coaching story some day.  I can work girls ratting into it.  I'll throw in some sexual harassment also.
 
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Posted: #31
Mahalo  TD21 ........ GOODLUCK too ALL
 
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Posted: #32
Get em bro 
 
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Posted: #33

Added:  Kent State team total Under 24.5 (0.75u)

Bumped:  BG / Kent State Under 50.5,now 0.75u.

 
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Posted: #34
VT is not + they're -?
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by mak104:

VT is not + they're -?

VT came out +3.5 got bet down
 
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Posted: #36
One minor update tonight, bet my way out of the small Missouri play with Florida having the interim HC... Thought this situation with McElwain might drag out another week when I took Missouri on Sunday.  Small chance to middle.

A few other comments inserted below.

Locked in:
CMU +7 -105  (1u)
Nevada +21  (1u)
Vanderbilt -9.5 -105  (0.75u)
Notre Dame -14 -105 (0.5u) & -13 -105 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overall
South Carolina +22 (0.5u) & +22.5 -105 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overall
Iowa / Ohio State Under 52  (0.75u)  *Like this less now with Ohio State outside of the top 4 in CFP rankings.
LSU / Alabama Under 48.5  (0.75u)
Wisconsin / Indiana Under 49.5  (0.75u)
Clemson -7 -105 (0.5u)
Virginia Tech +3.5  (0.5u)
SMU +14  (0.5u)
Oklahoma State -3 +100  (0.5u)
Texas +7.5  -115 (0.25u) & +8 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Northern Illinois +10  (0.5u)
West Virginia -3  -105  (0.25u) & -2.5 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Oregon +26 (0.5u)
Miami (OH) / Ohio U. Under 56  (0.5u)
BGSU / Kent State Under 50.5  (0.5u)
Minnesota / Michigan Under 42 -120  (0.5u)
Syracuse +6  (0.25u)
Iowa +17.5  (0.25u)  *Like this less now with Ohio State outside of the top 4 in CFP rankings.
Texas State +11.5  (0.25u)
Old Dominion -7  -115 (0.25u)
Air Force -5.5 (0.25u)
Tulsa +15  -105 (0.25u)
Missouri +1  -120  (0.25u) & Added Florida +3.5 -115  (0.25u)
Connecticut +23 (0.25u)
BYU +15 (0.25u)
Arkansas -23.5  -120  (0.25u)
Penn State -7  -130  (0.25u)

GOY line in play this week:  Troy -7  -120  (0.5u)

FCS:
South Dakota -2.5  *2 DBs now suspended, maybe hold off or smaller units.
New Hampshire -1.5
NDSU / SDSU  Under 54
Richmond / Villanova  Under 51.5
 
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Posted: #37
TD , Good Luck this week , bud  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Hyped23:


VT came out +3.5 got bet down

  Yes, plus 3.5 opener @ Betonline.
 
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Posted: #39
Live-bet:  CMU / WMU Under 50.5  (0.5u)

Love the early score in the rain to push this # up.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Live-bet:  CMU / WMU Under 50.5  (0.5u)

Love the early score in the rain to push this # up.

Ha, did it again at Under 58.5 (0.5u) Live.
 
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Posted: #41
Some cleanup.... and one added FCS play:

Locked in:
CMU +7 -105  (1u)
Nevada +21  (1u)
BGSU / Kent State Under 50.5  (0.75u)  LOSS
Kent State  team total Under 24.5  (0.75u)  WIN
Vanderbilt -9.5 -105  (0.75u)
Notre Dame -14 -105 (0.5u) & -13 -105 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overall
South Carolina +22 (0.5u) & +22.5 -105 (0.25u) -- 0.75u overall
Iowa / Ohio State Under 52  (0.75u)  
LSU / Alabama Under 48.5  (0.75u)
Wisconsin / Indiana Under 49.5  (0.75u)
Miami (OH) / Ohio U. Under 56  (0.5u)  LOSS
CMU/WMU Under 50.5 (0.5u) In-game 
CMU/WMU Under 58.5  (0.5u)  In-game
Clemson -7 -105 (0.5u)
Virginia Tech +3.5  (0.5u)
SMU +14  (0.5u)
Oklahoma State -3 +100  (0.5u)
Texas +7.5  -115 (0.25u) & +8 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Northern Illinois +10  (0.5u)
West Virginia -3  -105  (0.25u) & -2.5 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Oregon +26 (0.5u)
Minnesota / Michigan Under 42 -120  (0.5u)
Syracuse +6  (0.25u)
Iowa +17.5  (0.25u)  
Texas State +11.5  (0.25u)
Old Dominion -7  -115 (0.25u)
Air Force -5.5 (0.25u)
Tulsa +15  -105 (0.25u)
Missouri +1  -120  (0.25u) & Florida +3.5 -115  (0.25u)
Connecticut +23 (0.25u)
BYU +15 (0.25u)
Arkansas -23.5  -120  (0.25u)
Penn State -7  -130  (0.25u)

GOY line in play this week:  Troy -7  -120  (0.5u)

FCS:
South Dakota -2.5  
New Hampshire -1.5
NDSU / SDSU  Under 54
Richmond / Villanova  Under 51.5
Added:  South Dakota / Northern Iowa Under  61.5
 
Captain
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Posted: #42
Great job TD! Keep on killing it- 

Good luck this week- I am on a few of those as well!!

 
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Posted: #43
 Awesome CALLED  on   CMU ....... MAHALO ...... \m/
 
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Posted: #44
TD - nice card - with you on ND, Vandy and Clemson...I think these faves will cover this week!  GL
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #45
Your 3 unders were the unders I actually liked the most on the card.  If Iowa plays any defense that is a definite under.  The Indiana should be an ugly game and I think the point total is inflated by the Maryland game last week that has no impact on this one.  And the Bama game feels like a 34-3 type game.  LSU can't score and Bama is so run heavy it gets hard to get over 50
 
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Posted: #46
Troy at -7? I’m confused on line, my book is -18
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by StoneyMcPony:

Troy at -7? I’m confused on line, my book is -18

Preseason game of year line there as stated.  I bet this game in late August.  GOY lines can be a double edged sword, but worked out for line value on this play.  I had a couple others earlier this year that were worse than the current line on game week.
 
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Posted: #48
I had a feeling, great pick on that one! Would you even consider the line still at where it’s at? 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by StoneyMcPony:

I had a feeling, great pick on that one! Would you even consider the line still at where it’s at? 

Didn't see this in time; had to step away for a few minutes.

I'd say stay away myself.  My #s have a fair line at closer to -15.  .... I saw that BA had a small play on Idaho +18.

Plenty of in-game opportunities for you on a Thursday night.  Best of luck.  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Added:  Iowa team total Under 17 (0.25u)
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