TD Week 11

Cincinnati -9.5  (2u)

Pittsburgh -4  (1u)

Clemson -17  (0.5u)

Ohio U. -3  (0.5u)

Utah -4.5  (0.5u)

Cincinnati -9.5  (2u)

Pittsburgh -4  (1u)

Clemson -17  (0.5u)

Ohio U. -3  (0.5u)

Utah -4.5  (0.5u)

Hope it's a great week 11 for you!

Taking my Buffalo winnings from Tuesday and putting it on....

NIU -3 -115 (small)

This a good one or a small play?  I know zero about most of the “extra” games 

UGA520, sorry for the delayed response.  Full disclosure, I'm probably not much help this time of year (this season in particular).  FWIW, my full season #s put the Missouri / Vanderbilt line at closer to 11.5.  But Missouri is not a very consistent team in terms of ATS margin, I could see a fair line as high as -14/14.5.  But +17 makes it tempting to consider the other side.  No play for me.  Believe BA had the fair line at -13, so that side of 2 TDs as well.  If they can stay up after the Florida win (bad spot for Florida with SEC East hopes dashed the week before) that is the key.  I truly have no feel for that.  But I think it is the question one has to ask to take Missouri --  do I like them to continue to play well in this spot vs. Vandy who was playing decent in their last 2 and off a bye.  I have never been a fan of the Vandy defense in conference play.  Hope you get a win here.

As for Fresno State, hard not to like them with the run they are on ATS, but again I am staying away.  Raw PR#s, one could argue a line as high as -5 and matchup wise looks pretty good for Fresno from that perspective as well; BSU giving up some passing yards the last 4.  Fresno passing game is solid.  And on the other side of the ball, the question mark on Fresno to start the year was the D-line losses, I don't think BSU can run the ball well enough and find a matchup edge there.  I think it's BSU strength (passing game) vs. a pretty solid Fresno secondary (although I am quite leery that they have not been tested at all against many passing teams -- Hawaii only team with really any success there.  And Fresno was fortunate to get Nevada with T. Gangi out).  All that said, I think there are reasons to stay away.  It's not a great spot for Fresno State.  BSU is a home dog for the first time in many years and are hearing about that "disrespect" all week.  And BSU with the USU game yet to go should come out still motivated to make a run at their division title in the MW.  Similarly, Fresno still has SDSU remaining on the schedule who is hanging on by a thread in the standings, so arguably a more important game for Fresno next week (believe they can lose to BSU, beat SDSU and still win the MW West).  And I don't know if Jeff has changed over the years.  Last year is a small sample size since his return to being a head coach, but the 2017 UNLV game tells me he has not changed.  My Dad was the OC at Cal for one season with Jeff.  Tedford was notorious for grinding his players physically so hard in practice all season (more reps, more reps) that they were pretty beat up by November and every year they seemed to have one terrible game late in the season.  Last year it was UNLV.  20+ plus point favorite and they go out and lose straight up by 10 points.  2006 was vs. Arizona or they win the P10 outright.    I'm not saying it definitely happens this week, just something to be aware of.  And maybe more alarming given that Fresno has been beating up on weak teams recently.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if Boise comes out more motivated than we've seen in a while.  Also, matchup wise and #s review, wouldn't surprise me if Fresno keeps it up.  No play for me.  I would tread lightly on either side.

Best of luck this weekend!  

Wahoo, my limits are so low on the 5D College Extra stuff that I haven't been posting units until Saturdays.  Usually try to add to original plays on Saturdays if I can still get a decent number.

As for the play, as long as Maine's QB Ferguson is in there, I think it's a solid play.  His passing #s the last 4 games are solid.  He missed a few games earlier in the year with injury and Maine's rating were down a little because of a few bad outings (Yale game result in particular).  Maine is 5-1 in the CAA and looking for a playoff bid.  Richmond has been really down all season compared to their usual standards.  Their 2nd QB has been playing the most in recent weeks.  Hard to say if the original starter is still hurt (only threw 3 passes last game, but was obviously available and still did not play much).  The new starter struggles with turnovers. Fair line is around -9/-10 I would say, so under a TD I locked it in.

Reasons to maybe not consider Maine.  Their schedule (number of road games) is brutal.  7 road games & 4 home games -- can't make this sh!t up.  Has to wear them out by this time of year, but they've already had their one late season letdown performance vs. W&M a couple weeks ago.  And it's Richmond's last home game.  And I do like Richmond's HC, he's only in his 2nd season there, but has had a lot of FCS success elsewhere.

Also, just read that Boise's top tackler this season is now out with an ACL injury.

Didn't you used to have your power rankings on here? Loved those as my book has some funky lines sometimes and I love comparing them to your rankings!

Thanks!

Updated Card....  decided to essentially get out of the Utah play after all with RB Moss also out.

Maine -6

goyo415,  

Thank you both.  I've been pretty average of late, which isn't too surprising since I slowed way down about 2 weeks ago to tend to some other priorities in life.  Trying to pick it back up (within reason) this week.  Seems like most of my hunches / leans the last couple weeks are better than my actual plays.  So I think I'm not too far off to get back to more consistent winning.  Feel pretty good really.

dantheman, I'll put my PR #s to start the week up in a few minutes.  I have not yet incorporated any updates based on this week's early games.

13.  Iowa State  86.3

14.  Utah State  86.3

15.  Iowa  85.4

16.  Florida  84.8

17.  Texas Tech  84.6

18.  Washington State  84.6

19.  Purdue  84.4

20.  Michigan State  83.9

21.  Central Florida  83.7

22.  Kentucky  83.1

23.  Texas A&M  83.1

24.  Penn State  82.6

25.  Auburn  82.6

26.  Syracuse  82.1

27.  Utah  81.9

28.  Texas  81.9

29.  Washington  81.9

30.  Boston College  81.1

31.  NC State  81.0

32.  Pitt  80.9

33.  Arizona State  80.4

34.  Stanford  80.3 

35.  South Carolina  80.2

36.  Duke  79.4

37.  Northwestern  79.1

38.  Appalachian State  79.0

39.  Oregon  78.9

40.  Georgia Tech  78.9

41.  Cincinnati  78.7

42.  Boise State  78.5

43.  Miami  78.0

45.  USC  76.7

46.  Virginia  76.3

47.  Cal  76.1

48.  Arizona  76.0

49.  Nebraska  76.0

50.  Wisconsin  75.8

51.  Army  75.8

52.  Temple  75.7

53.  Oklahoma State  75.6

54.  UAB  75.2

55.  Maryland  74.4

56.  Houston  74.1

57.  Ohio U.  74.0

58.  TCU  73.5

59.  Ole Miss  73.5

60.  Buffalo  72.8

61.  Tennessee  72.7

62.  Virginia Tech  72.4

63.  Kansas State  72.3

64.  Memphis  71.9

65.  Florida State  71.1

66.  BYU  70.9

67.  Nevada  70.8

68.  Colorado  70.7

69.  Air Force  70.6

70.  Indiana  70.4

71.  Northern Illinois  70.4

72.  Baylor  70.2

73.  Toledo  69.8

74.  Troy  69.3

75.  Miami (OH)  69.2

76.  Arkansas  68.6

77.  North Carolina  68.6

78.  North Texas  68.6

79.  Tulane  67.9

80.  Georgia Southern  67.6

81.  San Diego State  67.4

82.  Minnesota  67.1

83.  SMU  66.7

84.  Wake Forest  66.6

85.  UCLA  66.4

86.  Middle Tennessee 66.1

87.  Eastern Michigan  65.6

88.  Wyoming  65.6

89.  Marshall 65.4

90.  Florida Atlantic  65.1

91.  Louisiana Tech 64.6

92.  Louisiana Lafayette  64.0

93.  Kansas  63.8

94.  Arkansas State  63.7

95.  Florida International  61.7

96.  South Florida  60.8

97.  Tulsa  60.2

98.  Southern Miss  59.5

99.  Western Michigan  59.2

100.  Illinois  59.1

101.  Navy  58.9

102.  Coastal Carolina  58.7

103.  Charlotte  58.5

104.  Akron  57.7

105.  Louisiana Monroe  57.2

106.  Oregon State  56.8

107.  Liberty  56.3

108.  Louisville  56.2

109.  New Mexico  56.1

110.  Rutgers  55.4

111.  Central Michigan  55.0

112.  San Jose State  54.6

113.  Kent State  53.6

114.  Colorado State  53.3

115.  Hawaii  53.2

116.  Massachusetts  53.2

117.  Texas State  52.8

118.  East Carolina  51.5

119.  UTEP  51.4

120.  Georgia State  51.0

121.  UNLV 50.4

122.  Ball State  50.3

123.  Old Dominion  49.1

124.  New Mexico State  47.4

125.  Western Kentucky  46.9

126.  South Alabama  46.8

127.  UTSA  46.7

128.  Bowling Green 45.5

129.  Connecticut  42.7

130.  Rice  42.3