TD Week 3

Guess I should post the Sunday shopping since some of these lines are already on the move.  I find it fascinating that 3 of these books are offering some lines before Circa comes out.  FWIW, here's the early, hopefully value, plays.

Week 3:

Navy / Memphis Under 50.5  (1.25u)  - Navy offense makes them an Under team until proven otherwise.  Only 24 pts against Wagner is not a good sign for Navy.  Memphis with Missouri on deck should be looking to get in and get out quickly for this game.  Navy with a bye to follow.

Washington -14 (0.75u)  Not a good matchup for MSU secondary.  Line only goes up with Mel Tucker distraction.  Also have a -11.5 GOY play for (0.25u) or I may have gone a little more on the opener.

Louisville / Indiana Under 56.5 -108  (0.5u)

UTSA -8 -112  (0.5u)

CMU +31.5 (0.5u) - spot play against Notre Dame in a sandwich game between NC State and Ohio State.

Wyoming +28.5  (0.5u) - same thing with Texas in a sandwich game between Alabama and Baylor.

Oklahoma -26.5 (0.4u)

Maryland -13.5  (0.3u) - I just think UVa stinks and this line goes up.

Air Force -9.5 -113  (0.3u)

Waiting on a few leans to see if I can get a better number.

Michigan fans - are they really running it up on a U of M graduate in Scottie Loeffler?

One more that wasn't available earlier......

Week 3:

Navy / Memphis Under 50.5  (1.25u)

Washington -14 (0.75u)

Louisville / Indiana Under 56.5 -108  (0.5u)

UTSA -8 -112  (0.5u)

CMU +31.5 (0.5u)

Wyoming +28.5  (0.5u) 

Oklahoma -26.5 (0.4u)

Added:  Florida Atlantic +24  (0.4u)  Was the 2nd half enough yesterday or is Dabo still mad at his team and tries to run it up here (if he even can).  I could see Dabo pushing here to "get right" going into Florida State next week, but I still can't pass on this number.  What is this line a week ago?  I had closer to 16-17.  The Florida Atlantic surprise straight up loss to Kurtis Rourke actually playing for OU (we're they ready yesterday and expecting him to play??) adds some line value IMO.  Herman decent as a dog as well I believe. 

Maryland -13.5  (0.3u) 

Air Force -9.5 -113  (0.3u)

With you on Washington, even before theTucker thing.

And with you on Louisville/Indy Under. Hoosiers show a nice D and very avg O. And they're milking a little clock this yr.

Maryland burned me on Towson and Charlotte with small plays, lost my trust in them.

Michigan isn't running it up at all!! They should be blowing out these cremepuff games with a decisive 3rd quarter, not happening yet.

Ooooo, I like that Navy play! Navy at 30.5 secs per play and Memphis at 29.6. Grabbing some of that. Ehhh, already down to 47.5, still small play. Nice grab on that one at 50!

Week 3:

Navy / Memphis Under 50.5  (1.25u)

Washington -14 (0.75u)

Louisville / Indiana Under 56.5 -108  (0.5u)

UTSA -8 -112  (0.5u)

CMU +31.5 (0.5u)

Wyoming +28.5  (0.5u)

Added:  Minnesota +7 -105  (0.5u) - lasted about a mintue at BOL, went from -6.5 opener to -7 -105, then -7 -120, then back to -6.5.  Check your blood pressure if you play these BOL openers.

Oklahoma -26.5 (0.4u)

Florida Atlantic +24  (0.4u)  

Maryland -13.5  (0.3u) 

Air Force -9.5 -113  (0.3u)

@UNIMAN

 Good to see you UNIMAN!  

Thanks for your thoughts on Michigan.

And come on man, Maryland is DUE!.....  I really wasn't terribly impressed with Maryland vs. Charlotte, this is a season long fade of UVa.  

Week 3:

Navy / Memphis Under 50.5  (1.25u)

Washington -14 (0.75u)

Louisville / Indiana Under 56.5 -108  (0.5u)

UTSA -8 -112  (0.5u)

CMU +31.5 (0.5u)

Wyoming +28.5  (0.5u)

Minnesota +7 -105  (0.5u) 

Oklahoma -26.5 (0.4u)

Florida Atlantic +24  (0.4u)  

Added:  Syracuse / Purdue Under 57.5 -115 (0.4u)

Maryland -13.5  (0.3u) 

Air Force -9.5 -113  (0.3u)

 gl

Yep, they will cover once I'm not on them. 

Liking Wyoming Florida Atlantic and Minnesota.  Nice card  let's kill it this weekend.  

ginx,

thanks and good luck to you!

bgk,

such a stud covers OG, great to see you on a Sunday.  Let's get it!  

Just added a couple blue bloods that I think get right this weekend against opponents that don't play much defense.

Week 3:

Navy / Memphis Under 50.5  (1.25u)

Washington -14 (0.75u)

Louisville / Indiana Under 56.5 -108  (0.5u)

UTSA -8 -112  (0.5u)

CMU +31.5 (0.5u)

Wyoming +28.5  (0.5u)

Minnesota +7 -105  (0.5u) 

Oklahoma -26.5 (0.4u)

Florida Atlantic +24  (0.4u)  

Syracuse / Purdue Under 57.5 -115 (0.4u)

Maryland -13.5  (0.3u) 

Air Force -9.5 -113  (0.3u)

Added:  Ohio State -27  (0.3u)

Added:  Alabama -31  (0.3u)

Good luck this week, TD, and as always -- thanks for sharing 

Good luck TD.  

Great stuff. Curious what you would play the Navy/Memphis and Louisville/Indiana Unders down to?

BetFriends,

D-Town,

Thank you both and GL this week!  

panthersrams,

Right now Navy/Memphis is about halfway in between what I consider key #s in 45 and 49.  So, cutoff of 45.5 would be about as far to go I'd say.  And keep in mind that I played the soft number.  I will likely counter that with an Over for a small middle at some point.  Not a large play is all I'm trying to make clear.  Based on the last couple years of Navy/Memphis scores, both teams are actually pretty consistent.  31-14 or so feels about right.

For Louisville / Indiana,  I think 52 would be fine still.  Seeing one 53.5 -115 out there still.

And I just added to Purdue / Syracuse at U59.5.  Surprised by that movement.  

Ha, just saw my typo. Navy at 35.0 secs per play, not 30.5.

GL this week TD.

Talk to me about that Purdue/Cuse total. Its intriguing me. Cuse first road game and first "real competition "......so theor ranks of 3rd on O and 6th on D will soon be adjusted appropriately.....probably lost Gadsden for a couple weeks at least with a bum ankle. Schrader is a baller, but not sure he has enough around him. Cuse had 9 penalties last week....and that continues to haunt them as they were the nations leader in penalties last year.....if they have another 9 or 10 penalty game its gonna be tough to sustain drives and/or get off the field on defense.....Purdue kinda similar.....Card is a decent qb, but not a ton around him....

Think you may just be on to something TD.

From Mlive.com;  https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/2023/09/jim-harbaughs-dad-has-warned-him-about-michigans-next-opponent.html

 Some of Jim Harbaugh’s earliest and most cherished memories come from when his dad, Jack, was a football coach at Bowling Green. Jim was 4 years old when his dad began the first of his three seasons as an assistant coach at the Ohio school. Jack had played football there from 1957 to 1960 and met his wife, Jackie, in an English class. “There’s a great picture of my dad sitting on the bench wearing his number 13 and my mom behind him as a cheerleader at BG,” Jim said.

Whenever he drives that way, to or from Ann Arbor on the way to Crestline or Cleveland, Ohio, he looks out the window at the school’s football stadium. He can recite the fight song.

On Monday, he was asked if he had a relationship with Bowling Green head coach Scot Loeffler and whether the school was a special place for the Harbaugh family. He smiled wide. Affirmative and affirmative,” Harbaugh said. “Both.” Always been friends with Scot and we keep in touch and text and talk sometimes,” Harbaugh said. “He’s doing a heck of a job there.”

Train, let me get back to you tonight.  Short version is I think that both HCs (including Babers - he’s adapted to personnel limitations at SU) are defensive minded guys.  And just based on schedule and new scheme at Purdue, 3 out of 4 games results so far this year kinda looks like Over teams.  So that appears to be helping a little with a decent total here.  I think it’s more like 28-21 type game.

UNIMAN,

Good stuff, thanks for the follow up on this.  I had a feeling.  Small world here in the Midwest that one of the other dads on my son’s basketball team, he played at UM with Scot and they are best friends.  Believe they were each other’s best man for weddings.  And one of my dad’s former assistants was on the staff the last few years so we talk BG football occasionally.  Anyway, I hate it when I miss this type of angle (Kirby Smart and Samford’s coach last year comes to mind).  UM could cover by accident but they won’t be intentionally pouring it on late in the game is my belief.  I’ll probably be on BGSU at some point.  Now I just need to decide if that should be pre-game or in-game or a little bit of both.

Look ahead line added this morning:

USC -12 at Colorado (0.75u)

shop around, there’s a few 14s out there too, but did find one shop that moved to 12 after the Nebraska game.

I can't find much for an injury update on Frank Harris, going to reduce this play quite a bit and add an Under play for UTSA/Army.  Harris is a gutsy competitor, but reading between the lines I am not sure he goes with two non-league games then a bye.  And Tennessee is on deck which is a loss, so why not let him come back after the bye at full health for the conference slate.  Almost think he's more likely to play in the winnable game (Army) and gut it out, stay banged up, and then sit vs. UT.  Anyway, too much speculation so I'm changing my strategy some here on this game.

Week 3:

Navy / Memphis Under 50.5  (1.25u)

Washington -14 (0.75u)

Syracuse / Purdue Under 57.5 -115 (0.4U) & U59.5 (0.35u) -- (0.75u overall)

Louisville / Indiana Under 56.5 -108  (0.5u)

CMU +31.5 (0.5u)

Wyoming +28.5  (0.5u)

Minnesota +7 -105  (0.5u) 

Oklahoma -26.5 (0.4u)

Florida Atlantic +24  (0.4u)

Added:  Army/UTSA Under 44.5 (0.4u)  

Maryland -13.5  (0.3u) 

Air Force -9.5 -113  (0.3u)

Ohio State -27  (0.3u)

Alabama -31  (0.3u)

UTSA -8 -112  (0.5u) & Added partial buy-back Army +9 (0.3u)

Added: Memphis -6.5 1st half -138 (0.2u)

Memphis / Navy Over 46.5 -105 (0.5u) - not advocating this as a stand alone play, just want to reduce my original Under position while having a small middle opportunity at reduced juice.

U54.5 Memphis/Navy Live  small

For the record, I told Navy's coach to punt there on 4th down before the half.  Playing great, up 14-7.  Why risk giving them good field position? If they punt, they're likely up 14-10 or better.  Anyway, maybe I'm subconsciously thinking about my middle attempt and not just arm chair coaching.  

I can't post everything I do in-game, it's too much.  FWIW, going for a middle here.

in-game plays U54.5, U58.5 (0.2u combined) and O47 (02.u) plus the two pre-flop plays (U50.5 & O46.5).  More on the Under overall than the Over plays, so that last score right before half hurt my chances.  Plus if Memphis is going to win this game, they need to pick it up.

Now he gives them a 48 yard drive with the failed onside kick to open the 2nd half after a 58 yard drive on a failed 4th down right before half with a 7 point lead as a double digit dog.  Just extend the game and stay in it longer.  Some days I wish I'd gone into coaching when I see what else is out there.