TD Week 4

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Added:  Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u)  UNC rivalry game on deck, but I think Duke will play better this week after a lackluster performance vs. UConn.  Oh, and MTSU is bad.

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u)

Added:  Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u)  NIU 1st game after ND upset.  MAC opener for both teams.  I'll take over two touchdowns in this spot.

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u)

Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u)

Added:  San Jose State +14.5 -110 (0.3u)  SJSU hasn't played anybody yet, but a letdown spot for the 2-PAC champs.  Like it with the hook.

Eeesh. San Jose power rated higher than a ton of teams that I have better. The Spartans have beaten up on some bottom feeders but re watching that sac state tape they were getting gashed up and down the field. How are they gonna stop wazzu 

@steponaduck

I make it +16.5 by to-date numbers, so agree with you on the power ratings aspect, which is a small sample size.  It's a small spot play for me, so yes, going against the #s technically.    

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u) & bumped this again still at -13.5 -110 (0.25u) (BR) -- (0.75u overall)

Added:  East Carolina +7.5 -110 (0.5u)  (BOL)

Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u)

San Jose State +14.5 -110 (0.3u)

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u) (0.75u)

East Carolina +7.5 -110 (0.5u)

Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u)

San Jose State +14.5 -110 (0.3u)

Week 5 Lookahead:

Added:  Georgia ML -120  (0.3u)

Week 4:

Washington -9.5 -110 (1u)

Added:  Ohio U. / Kentucky Under 42.5 -110 (1u)

Duke -13.5 -110 (0.5u) (0.75u)

East Carolina +7.5 -110 (0.5u)

Buffalo +15 -110 (0.3u)

San Jose State +14.5 -110 (0.3u)

Week 5 Lookahead:

Georgia ML -120  (0.3u)

Added:  Boise State -31.5 -110 (2.5u)

PSU might want to get a second game canceled due to their whooping cough.

Since only a small bet - hope you lose that Georgia ML .....

  >> setting up a MASSIVE bet on Georgia at Texas a few weeks later - if set up right (Texas kills OU), maybe my largest bet ever (previously Horns vs Georgia in Sugar Bowl)

BOL this week man ..........

'whooping cough' ? - smallpox and polio coming to *your* town soon ........

You and duck are both on Boise. I see Boise has moved to 38.5 at Fanduel but is still 31.5 a Heritage. Not up at DK or BOL. 

There HE is!  "My Friend, My Good Friend!  Friend of years, friend of tears.  You're looking fit and fiddle."

..... alright, so I'm not completely sure what that movie quote means, but it is nice to see Mr. BA on the forum.

So,...... Mr. BA, I am too lazy to go find my Week 0 & Week 1 thread, but in there on about 8/16/24 +/- zero days is a Georgia -1.5 -115 play at Texas.  Small play, but yes, Texas does have a tendency year to year to struggle the week after the RRR.   

I think I think that Georgia had their bad game and will get "coached up" / "MF'ed" through their off week heading into the Alabama game.  So, if that happens you won't get your perfect storm for that massive play you're dreaming about.  But if Alabama can somehow pull it off at home, then I'm fine with the small loss; in that case I'll grab my popcorn  then and I will be cheering for your large play in that spot.  Good stuff!

BOL of this week, ..... and stay clear of that whooping cough.  Hopefully Boise doesn't get it from Portland State.  I need lots of points out of Boise.

Really happy to see someone else like this Kentucky UNDER .... I agree. I saw this one first knowing Ohio has a tough dee for a MAC team and so so Off. that will be hard pressed to score much of anything vs Wildcats 

@MudPhud3

It's weird, for some lines they adjust pretty well like they have solid PR #s.  Then in other cases, it's like they take the Massey rating number and throw it up there with no adjustment for their own numbers.  Somewhat look ahead spot for Boise.  And Boise State with some issues on defense, at least against good teams.  Or maybe they're germophobic and want to get the game over quickly.  Anyway, if they want to, Boise can name the score and get Jeanty another 6 TDs.  Weber State is down this year, especially on offense (really last two years on offense), but they hammered PSU and put up points too.  Not quite as many as WSU, but Portland State is struggling out of the gate this year is all I can say.  And very young at WR is my recollection.  Number gets high enough, might have to buy back some to minimize risk, but that feels like a "scared money, don't make money" situation.  Part of the reason I went as much as I did on the opener I guess, but part of me wants to let it all ride.

BOL this week.  

@Last2thirst

The only half azz attempt I can come up with to play devil's advocate on that game's Total is that Kentucky doesn't come out focused after playing so hard in the near upset of Georgia.  If their D comes out with no effort early is the narrative I can come up with to hit this total.  They get behind early and have to put up some points to make a comeback.  The Kentucky front 7 is really solid, just an "average" effort should slow down OU enough.  ........ maybe OU turnovers leading to UK short field and points off turnovers,...... that narrative could be another explanation to scare us off.  Anyway, anything is possible, but more often than not this matchup stays Under.  Hopefully if there is any sleepwalking by UK it's more noticeable on offense than defense.  OU defense would struggle more with a strong passing team, but UK hasn't really proved that yet this year.  30-7 ish   

Good luck TD.  

@D-Town

 Thanks.  Good luck on your plays.  

Added:  Georgia Southern +36.5 -110 (0.4u)

I will circle back later and clean up the full list.

@Last2thirst

underrated site - gives a quick snapshot into this spot (situation > off loss /totals)

 https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/?range=yearly_since_2021

Many teams have a clear identity off a loss (or win) - Kentucky is consistently about 65% UNDER off a SU loss

Added: UCLA / LSU Over 55.5 -110 (0.3u)

Added: Utah -1.5 -110 (0.4u) (FD)

So much for a full list last night,….. been capping.

FCS:

Added: East Tennessee State +8.5 -115 (0.5u)

Quick update on that first FCS game:

Bumped to 0.8u for ETSU +8.5 -115.

Added:  ETSU / Elon Under 49.5 -110 (0.5u)

FCS Added:

so far, more to come:

Columbia / Lafayette Under 47.5 -110 (2u)

Eastern Illinois +14.5 -110 (1.3u)

Campbell -6.5 -115 (0.5u)