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TD Week 6

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Posted: #51
td...like some MAC teams this week....i'm with you on MiaOH. 

what are your thoughts on ohio-12? great power offense.....will put up 36+ here......cmich O is depleted and wont be able to keep up...... cmich also poor against run and suck on 3rd down D so ohio should control the clock. ohio weakness is secondary but cmich w/o best wrs have scored 17, 14, 8 the last 3 weeks.....what leads up to believe they will put up 24+ here? 

and......also love Emich +14 (bought the 0.5).....that # is total disrespect for that EMich D ......this is their superbowl (lost 10 straight to Toledo so this is their best shot) and maybe my favorite play in this game is toledo team total u36/37 (if total holds)
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by lvmike32:

Hey TD, yeah positive it was 62.5 on Navy/AF.  He bet 8u on it when his normal bet is 1 to 3.  Said he would still put a couple units on it at the current 51.5.  He lined it at 44 - he put both sides on about 8 possessions for the game and thus it would take over 50% resulting in TD's for him to lose - seems to have a good formula for pace.  I was actually wondering why you and Bookie don't hit totals harder (other than they come out on a Monday work day) - assume you would do just a well as you do on spreads.  Definitely seems like some opportunity for those in the know. 

Yep I just saw the 62 also. Where is the totals guy? I always just fade the public and try to hit the middles when possible but in no way good enough to predict line movement so hope a local is off. I just read all your past posts and I'm pissed I've been missing out haha. I appreciate all your hard work TD!! GL obviously haha
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by puffkit:

td...like some MAC teams this week....i'm with you on MiaOH. 

what are your thoughts on ohio-12? great power offense.....will put up 36+ here......cmich O is depleted and wont be able to keep up...... cmich also poor against run and suck on 3rd down D so ohio should control the clock. ohio weakness is secondary but cmich w/o best wrs have scored 17, 14, 8 the last 3 weeks.....what leads up to believe they will put up 24+ here? 

and......also love Emich +14 (bought the 0.5).....that # is total disrespect for that EMich D ......this is their superbowl (lost 10 straight to Toledo so this is their best shot) and maybe my favorite play in this game is toledo team total u36/37 (if total holds)

puff, I had this one circled last week when I started to look ahead to week 6.  CMU has been depleted with injuries at WR & TE for a few weeks now.  .... why I haven't played OU yet, I'm not even sure.  I was hoping for under 10, but that was really last week's fair line opener.  OU giving up 50 pts at UMass holding me back a little I suppose, but they were in control 2nd half; played a nice 3rd qtr - up 19 end of 3rd, then back & forth with the DD lead in the 4th.  Solich not one to run it up usually.  Like the running abilities of newer QB Rourke who's now establishing himself as the #1 guy.
I've only thrown OU into a teaser thus far.  May add the Side play at some point.  To me, it's OU or no play.  Tough to back CMU with the injuries and the way they're playing the last 3 weeks.

 
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Posted: #54
TD,  U Conn is a little hard to figure this year.  They give up a lot of pts.  Not the team from the last few years at all.

Except for the game last week when UCF rolled them Memphis was   a off. machine. Big offense.

We'll see but I expect Memphis to play hard from the start and thwart U.Conn.  Look for Memphis to control the clock and score most possessions.

This a win the conference game for Memphis. Or lose it tomorrow.  At  0-2,  forget it!

 If they want to have  greatness this year this a must win game.

I'm looking a 1st half play on Memphis.   Maybe.  Just need a number?


Stay Hard,   Doc
 
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Posted: #55
TD why does this Louisville NC State smell like a trap? Or am I just over thinking it
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:

TD,  U Conn is a little hard to figure this year.  They give up a lot of pts.  Not the team from the last few years at all.Except for the game last week when UCF rolled them Memphis was   a off. machine. Big offense.We'll see but I expect Memphis to play hard from the start and thwart U.Conn.  Look for Memphis to control the clock and score most possessions.This a win the conference game for Memphis. Or lose it tomorrow.  At  0-2,  forget it! If they want to have  greatness this year this a must win game.I'm looking a 1st half play on Memphis.   Maybe.  Just need a number?Stay Hard,   Doc

Doc, I'm staying away from this game. Line and total look about right; projected score 42-28. You have it covered when Memphis has the ball, but where's your review of UConn offense vs. Memphis defense? I would be a little careful of that matchup aspect with laying 2 TDs on the road on a Friday night. Memphis off the loss should score a bunch here. The UConn secondary was inexperienced on depth coming into the year if I remember correctly. And they've been bad! A couple new DB injuries listed too; i'd have to check the depth chart/stats to see how much these two have been playing (haven't done this yet).

Other considerations: UConn is playing their second consecutive game on 6 days rest. Sunday game vs. ECU, Saturday game at SMU (hung tough for a while - granted, not the best spot for SMU), and now this Friday game.

Back to that Memphis defense; some injuries for one and two been giving up points this year to basically everyone (late vs. ULM but everyone else has put up points). Going from memory with Connelly's preseason preview but Memphis D was all or nothing last year. No middle ground on points allowed; either held opponents under 21ish or gave up more than 35ish. Forget the exact #s, but take a look / decide for yourself. Biggest question you have to be comfortable backing Memphis is, which Memphis D am I getting on game night?

Line value; I'd want -13.5 or +14.5 (obviously) if I somehow talked myself into either side.

No play for me.

Best of luck.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Lunatic27:

TD why does this Louisville NC State smell like a trap? Or am I just over thinking it


Trap in what way?

I 'think' NC State had this game circled in the offseason. After the devastating OT loss to Clemson, NC State was embarrassed a week later by Louisville. At home on a Thursday night and getting 4 pts at even $, I thought there was some value there (seeing +3 now). NC State should play UL much tougher this time around. I think fair line is closer to PK / +1. NC State has played much better since the opening loss to South Carolina. Seemed like they took the foot off the pedal 2nd half vs. Syracuse with a Thursday game on deck.

Key to the game is NC State front 6/7 putting pressure on and containing LJ because that NC State Secondary is a weakness with all the injuries.

UL injuries to top WR and CB are important too *check status of CB Alexander - looks like probable now.

All the time I have for now.

Good luck this weekend.
 
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Posted: #58
Added:

UDML parlay:

NC State +145 with EMU +425

(risk 0.1u to win 1.19u)
 
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Posted: #59
TD, great work so far this season.

How strongly do you feel about Penn State this week?

I feel like these guys are on a mission.

Thanks.
 
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Posted: #60
Week 6:

Miami (Ohio) -14  (2u)
Idaho -3  (1u)
Michigan State +11.5  (0.75u) & +14 (hook) (0.25u) -- 1u overall
Appalachian State -10 (0.75u)
Duke PK  (0.75u)
Iowa State +28 (0.75u)
Eastern Michigan +14 (hook)  (0.5u) & Added EMU +14 -110 (0.25u)  -- now 0.75u overall
San Diego State -9  (0.5u)
Miami / Florida State Under 48.5  (0.5u)
North Carolina State +4  +100 (0.5u)

Kansas State / Texas Under 49.5  (0.5u)
Air Force / Navy Under 52.5  (0.5u)

GOY line in play this week:  Auburn -14 (0.5u)

3-team 8-pt teaser:  +120 (risking 0.5)
Ohio U. -4, Miami (Ohio) -6, & Penn State -6.5 

Cincinnati  +17.5 (0.25u)
Western Michigan -6.5 -115 (0.25u)  
Added:  Penn State -13.5  (0.25u)

FCS:
Austin Peay +18
Youngstown State / South Dakota Under 54.5 & Under 52.5
South Dakota State -9.5

UDML parlay:
NC State +145 with EMU +425  (risk 0.1u to win 1.19u)

 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

TD, great work so far this season.

How strongly do you feel about Penn State this week?

I feel like these guys are on a mission.

Thanks.

Added a small play a few minutes ago now that the line is < -14.  Also have them in the teaser.  I think they should overmatch NU on talent and take care of business heading into the bye week before Michigan and OSU.  PSU skill guys in space should cause problems for NU's secondary.  Kept it a small play though with the potential look ahead to those two opponents.  On the other hand, may be a point of emphasis to play better on the road before at OSU (only road game so far was at Iowa -- closer than it should have been).
 
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Posted: #62
Week 6:

Miami (Ohio) -14  (2u)
Idaho -3  (1u)
Michigan State +11.5  (0.75u) & +14 (hook) (0.25u) -- 1u overall
Appalachian State -10 (0.75u)
Duke PK  (0.75u)
Iowa State +28 (0.75u)
Eastern Michigan +14 (hook)  (0.5u) &  +14 -110 (0.25u)  -- 0.75u overall
San Diego State -9  (0.5u)
Miami / Florida State Under 48.5  (0.5u)
North Carolina State +4  +100 (0.5u)

Kansas State / Texas Under 49.5  (0.5u)
Air Force / Navy Under 52.5  (0.5u)

GOY line in play this week:  Auburn -14 (0.5u)

3-team 8-pt teaser:  +120 (risking 0.5)
Ohio U. -4, Miami (Ohio) -6, & Penn State -6.5 

Cincinnati  +17.5 (0.25u)
Western Michigan -6.5 -115 (0.25u)  
Penn State -13.5  (0.25u)
Added:  7-pt teaser:  Michigan State +17.5 & MSU/UM Under 47 (0.25u)

FCS:
Austin Peay +18
Youngstown State / South Dakota Under 54.5 & Under 52.5
South Dakota State -9.5

UDML parlay:
NC State +145 with EMU +425  (risk 0.1u to win 1.19u)

 
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Posted: #63
Thanks TD, appreciate the response.

Took PSU in a teaser just in case NW hangs around.

Keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #64
Good luck  this wkend & MAHALO bro
 
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Posted: #65
BOL TD! Took YSU/SD Under 48 on 5Dimes hope that 48 is still a workable number
 
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Posted: #66
Just bumped that MSU +17.5 / Under 47 teaser to 0.5u.

Also added: MSU +7 1st half (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #67
Week 6:

Miami (Ohio) -14  (2u)
Idaho -3  (1u)
Michigan State +11.5  (0.75u) & +14 (hook) (0.25u) -- 1u overall
Appalachian State -10 (0.75u)
Duke PK  (0.75u)
Iowa State +28 (0.75u)
Eastern Michigan +14 (hook)  (0.5u) &  +14 -110 (0.25u)  -- 0.75u overall
San Diego State -9  (0.5u)
Miami / Florida State Under 48.5  (0.5u)
North Carolina State +4  +100 (0.5u)
Kansas State / Texas Under 49.5  (0.5u)
Air Force / Navy Under 52.5  (0.5u)
Michigan State +7 1st half (0.5u)
Added:  Purdue -3  -115 (0.5u)

GOY line in play this week:  Auburn -14 (0.5u)

3-team 8-pt teaser:  +120 (risking 0.5)
Ohio U. -4, Miami (Ohio) -6, & Penn State -6.5 

7-pt teaser:  Michigan State +17.5 & MSU/UM Under 47 (0.5u)

Cincinnati  +17.5 (0.25u)
Western Michigan -6.5 -115 (0.25u)  
Penn State -13.5  (0.25u)

FCS:
Austin Peay +18
Youngstown State / South Dakota Under 54.5 & Under 52.5
South Dakota State -9.5
Added:  Illinois State -3.5

UDML parlay:
NC State +145 with EMU +425  (risk 0.1u to win 1.19u)
 
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Posted: #68
Thanks for posting and BOL
 
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Posted: #69
Week 6:

Miami (Ohio) -14  (2u)
Idaho -3  (1u)
Michigan State +11.5  (0.75u) & +14 (hook) (0.25u) -- 1u overall
Appalachian State -10 (0.75u)
Duke PK  (0.75u)
Iowa State +28 (0.75u)
Eastern Michigan +14 (hook)  (0.5u) &  +14 -110 (0.25u)  -- 0.75u overall
San Diego State -9  (0.5u)
Miami / Florida State Under 48.5  (0.5u)
North Carolina State +4  +100 (0.5u)
Kansas State / Texas Under 49.5  (0.5u)
Air Force / Navy Under 52.5  (0.5u)
Michigan State +7 1st half (0.5u)
Purdue -3  -115 (0.5u)

GOY line in play this week:  Auburn -14 (0.5u)

3-team 8-pt teaser:  +120 (risking 0.5)
Ohio U. -4, Miami (Ohio) -6, & Penn State -6.5 

7-pt teaser:  Michigan State +17.5 & MSU/UM Under 47 (0.5u)

Cincinnati  +17.5 (0.25u)
Western Michigan -6.5 -115 (0.25u)  
Penn State -13.5  (0.25u)
Added:  SMU +10  -123  (0.25u)

FCS:
Austin Peay +18
Youngstown State / South Dakota Under 54.5 & Under 52.5
South Dakota State -9.5
Illinois State -3.5

UDML parlay:
NC State +145 with EMU +425  (risk 0.1u to win 1.19u)
 
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Posted: #70
Miami (OH) -6.5 (2nd half)  (0.5u)
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Miami (OH) -6.5 (2nd half)  (0.5u)

Just got that myself, but had to pay -1.24 juice.....still like it. 
 
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Posted: #72
Tough day so far losing the largest play....

Just added to MSU play at +13 (another 0.5u)
 
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Posted: #73
 TD on MSU. Stay after it brother.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Geppetto, seems like this is the 2nd week in a row that you asked about a game where I'm going against the grain a bit.  Maybe UCF is just that damn good (and the opposite statement for Cinci), but line value alone I couldn't hold back on a small play once it crossed 17.


TD - well I guess neither of us will know who was right on UCF but I did like my chances before they called the game . Tough break on Miami OH, but we got lucky on App state, and I hit with Miami and my biggest play off the week which was Army first half and Army whole game. Let's get em week 7. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
I added SMU +10 too TD. Ridiculous late line movement. For what reason? Who knows. SMU had it covered for overwhelming majority of game and of course gave it up late.
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