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TD Week 7

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Posted: #26
On Vandy and Auburn too

Have a great week TD. One thread I always look for every week
 
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Posted: #27

THANK YOU FOR SHARING AND ALL TH ETIME YOU OBVIOUSLY PUT IN


I do have one question? Given your rating numbers, wouldn't you agree

Baylor getting 25-26 points from Oklahoma State should be a play?


Thank you 

 
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Posted: #28
TD - well I guess neither of us will know who was right on UCF last week, but I did like my chances before they called the game . Tough break on Miami OH, but we got lucky on App state, and I hit with Miami and my biggest play off the week which was Army first half and Army whole game. Let's get em week 7. 
 
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Posted: #29
Td any thoughts on UCF 1 st half maybe avoiding back door cover? Good luck this week!
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Geppetto:

TD - well I guess neither of us will know who was right on UCF last week, but I did like my chances before they called the game . Tough break on Miami OH, but we got lucky on App state, and I hit with Miami and my biggest play off the week which was Army first half and Army whole game. Let's get em week 7. 

Geppetto, I was definitely wrong on that play and was fortunate for the canceled play.  I'm now up to 1-1 on being on the lucky side of a canceled play.  .... 2011  Michigan -14ish vs. WMU.  34-10 score in the 3rd qtr.  UM was cruising 2nd & 3rd qtr and they never made 55 minutes.

Still waiting for the gambling gods to even things out on the really bad beats; think I'm like 1-3 in that department.

Good luck this week.  
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by MR TINGLES:

THANK YOU FOR SHARING AND ALL TH ETIME YOU OBVIOUSLY PUT IN


I do have one question? Given your rating numbers, wouldn't you agree

Baylor getting 25-26 points from Oklahoma State should be a play?


Thank you 


Mr. T, my general answer for this with PR#s is "Usually".  The problem with posting just raw #s is its really just the tip of the iceberg.  The process I go through to arrive at #s is more important than just the final # because it forces me to realize how a team/coach performs against top 10 teams, against top 50 teams, again #51-100 teams, against bottom 30 teams, vs. conf, vs. non-conf, etc., etc.  And even just the #s side of it alone is not the full cap.  Matchup and situational aspects to always consider as well.  

Back to the raw #s.  I've said this before, but it's nearly impossible to find a one size fits all PR# for every team/opponent.  The ability to adjust slightly with some teams (and how they approach/perform) in certain situations/spots is definitely needed.  Look at Maryland at Ohio State last week.  Purely #s had this line in the low to mid 20s.  Was I jumping up and down to go bet Maryland at +31.  Actually no.  Ohio State has talented enough players to beat the sh!t out of lesser teams and they're quietly playing more complete football and dominating lesser teams as they should.  Same thing this week vs. Nebraska.  Raw #s only -20ish. Lean OSU actually.

With home field, my #s put this Oklahoma State line around -21.  Opened at -23.5 per vegasinsider.  Both teams off a bye.  Baylor RBs should both play finally.  We've only seen one game of Baylor without WR Platt.  We've also only seen a couple games of OSU without CB Harper.  With already having a conference loss and a wide open conference race still and with the triple revenge (or whatever its up to) and the complete mismatch of the OSU WRs/QB vs. what's been a ravaged Baylor secondary all year. ...very possible they just score at will all day.  And OSU good in this spot; 9-1 home vs. opponents off back to back losses / 13-2 vs. conf opponents off back to back losses.  Its not hard to talk yourself out of a potential Baylor play.  I was kinda initially leaning towards a Baylor play myself.  Not so sure now.  I think the real question / decision you have to be comfortable with / think about is how many points is Baylor going to score / Oklahoma State going to give up.  Also seems pretty feasible that the Baylor passing game keeps them hanging around just enough to cover in a high scoring game.  I'm pretty torn on this one.  Will sit it out for now / sleep on it & think about it some more.

Best of luck this weekend.  
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by arubadk:

Td any thoughts on UCF 1 st half maybe avoiding back door cover? Good luck this week!

I think you should ask WahooS!  

Probably not a bad idea, let's see how high it goes.  .... As mentioned above, until any team comes remotely close to covering vs. UCF, hard not to give them a look at the opening # every week.
 
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Posted: #33
All of you guys, 

Pecador
Skanless1
Indigo999
LABOOKIE
1969USC
UGA520
tideman
DU4L
undermysac
capitolpix

Thanks for stopping in this week!  Per usual, I'm struggling to keep up.  Good luck to all this week 7 (already - d@mn)!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by UGA520:

Whoa! I just seen TCU is only giving -4.5 at Kstate??? What am I missing? TCU wins by 3 touchdowns right? 

I mean this is the same Kstate team that lost to Vandy right? 

UGA520, line looks about right to me.  I can't bring myself to play against K-State (yet) at home even with the backup QB in (it appears)..... seems like they always find a way to rally and overachieve when you least expect it.  I know BA likes TCU this week and I respect the he!l out of that man's capping.

Good luck on your plays!  
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Thanks for posting your power ratings, much appreciated...

Indigo, you're welcome.  Just be careful in using them with some teams approaching their peak (or valley) rating for the year.  Just because a team has been covering most weeks thus far doesn't guarantee it will continue.  Probably the opposite.  Some teams will "accelerate through" their incremental value increases each week and keep covering (think CSU 2016 & Idaho 2016 in conference play.... Ohio State late 2014 season on their way to the title).  Some teams might stay barely ahead of the fair line value because of one early season bad loss glitch that affects their year-to-date PR # (think Temple 2016).

Also, I flagged Ball State with the QB Neal injury.  I should have probably also flagged Middle Tennessee, Nevada, and Michigan (probably forgetting others).  MTSU better to much better with Stockstill in, but their OC Franklin knows WTF he's doing and Urzua is coming into his own.  Michigan arguably needs a lower # without Speight.  Time will tell on O'Korn's consistency.  Nevada quite a bit better with Gangi in at QB (somewhat corrected for this, was it enough??)

And ironically, I think I have Minnesota too high at the moment.  I corrected some, but probably not enough for the dominating wins against a weak Oregon State team and a Middle Tennessee team with a still green QB in there committing turnovers.  Reality is setting in for PJ (couldn't happen to a nicer guy).  This was my only RSW total play; 2 units on Minnesota Under 7.5.  The PJ "rebuild" narrative will be in full effect this next offseason.  They might get drilled their last 5 games with that schedule; of course I said that in the preseason too.  Don't feel any different today.
 
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Posted: #36
Before I forget, FCS College Extra lines slowly but surely came out last night until about midnight ET.  I'm not sure if I should be flattered or pissed that my limits remain more reduced than ever and that I can push a Total by 6 points in two bets (Sides slightly less at 2 to 2.5 pts per bet).  Anyway, week 6 results were a bit of a mindfck on the FCS.  Happened early in the year as well.  I had 3 late leans and I only played one and lost.  1-3 on the FCS plays last week I think it was (still need to fall back and tally up week 6 results / revise YTD record, etc. - maybe tomorrow night  ).  I know some have been following on these, but line value is pretty well shot after wagers are locked in.  Need to get back in the groove this week.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

*missed Pitt +11 opener, took +10 initially, now back at +11.5.  *Bad spot for NC State.

Betonline openers locked in:

Mississippi State -18.5  (1.25u)
Vanderbilt +4.5  (1u)
Michigan State -3.5  (1u)
Miami (OH)  -11.5  (1u)
Auburn -4  (0.75u)
Central Florida -28  (0.75u)
Eastern Michigan +4.5  (0.75u)
Houston -10  (0.5u)
Colorado -13  (0.5u)
Pitt +10  (0.25u)  & Added Pitt +11.5 (0.25u) -- 0.5u overall
Texas A&M +4.5  (0.25u)
Duke +8 (0.25u)



I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
 
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Posted: #38
TD- 

Great stuff! I would have sold my soul, my wife's soul, and every other thing I had to get Auburn at -4!!!

If the Kansas St. QB is out then I will be all over TCU- waiting for confirmation on that- I think TCU wins easily regardless but hate betting against the Wildcats at home and TCU just came off a tough game- 

Good luck this week!!


 
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Posted: #39
 
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Posted: #40

TD, what do you make of the line drop in the Colorado game from -13 to -11 AFTER the coach left?

I still think Colorado crushes them here, but wondering your thoughts please if you have a minute to respond.

Thanks for the hard work, keep it going.

 
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Posted: #41

TD thanks for all the hard work and I really like following your threads.

 

I do have a quick question for you or anyone else for that matter on this thread. How do you feel about WVU -3 vs. TT???

 

They got robbed by refs @ TCU so I don’t see why this isn’t an easy cover.

 
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Posted: #42
Hey TD thanks for all your help I'm here in vegas that UNLV game should have gone over 56 but SDSU didn't play great that 1H plus that fumble at th 2yard line didn't help nor UNLV. This week Rebels are playing at Air Force which should go over , your thoughts? Also E. Michigan UNDER HAS BEEN GOLD! Unfortunately they can't score but great defense but a covering machine. Also thoughts on Ohio bounce back?

 
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Posted: #43
thanks and good luck this week
 
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Posted: #44
Added:  San Diego State -6.5 (0.75u)
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by dudebrent1:

TD thanks for all the hard work and I really like following your threads.

 

I do have a quick question for you or anyone else for that matter on this thread. How do you feel about WVU -3 vs. TT???

 

They got robbed by refs @ TCU so I don’t see why this isn’t an easy cover.


The current line looks right at -3.5.  Last Sunday I thought about taking Texas Tech +7 based on the line alone without looking into this matchup.  Held off.  Maybe a good thing.  I finally looked into this game a little tonight.  I can see why the West Virginia lean.  Tough spot usually for TT in back to back road games.  Is the TT pass D still susceptible against a good passing offense??  Looks like they might be.  West Virginia should move the ball and get their points.  Looks like another high scoring close game on paper.  12:00 noon kickoff.... any affect on TT?  ... maybe.  It's a decent trip from Lubbock to Morgantown.  West Virginia at home for the first time in 4 weeks and off a loss.  Seems like a better spot for West Virginia.  I'm sitting this one out, but I certainly can't talk you out of West Virginia if that was your initial lean at -3.

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:

TD, what do you make of the line drop in the Colorado game from -13 to -11 AFTER the coach left?

I still think Colorado crushes them here, but wondering your thoughts please if you have a minute to respond.

Thanks for the hard work, keep it going.


Clearly a line move based on HC Anderson leaving.... Recent history (off the top of my head) suggests that the team that lost its coach suddenly gets that adrenaline & motivation they're been lacking and puts forth a better effort.  UTEP this year and North Texas a couple years ago come to mind.  I'm sure there are plenty more examples.

Not sure about this unique situation, it's not quite the same as the usual mid-season firing narrative.  The HC quit on his own and now his texts are coming out that he was frustrated with not having funding to pay for better assistants.  If the remaining assistants can use that somehow to fuel the player's motivation (although it was directed at the coaches, not the players) then good for them.  I'm not sure.  They're either going to play fired up (for a while anyway) and keep it close.  Or they might get killed.  Hard to say.  This is not a situation where the players are playing for the interim coach and trying to get him the full-time gig.  Maybe they like him and will play hard regardless.  Interesting that they gave the interim HC title to a position coach and not a coordinator.

My bet was in before the Anderson announcement.  Just going to ride it out.  May work out I'd like to think.  A newfound motivation for Oregon State still doesn't bring back the key Secondary guys from injury.  I'd like to think that Colorado still gets a decent amount of points on the board given their skill guys even though Oregon State could/should play better / more motivated on defense with those comments directed at them.
 
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Posted: #47
Thanks TD, appreciate it.

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by trainer4u2:

Hey TD thanks for all your help I'm here in vegas that UNLV game should have gone over 56 but SDSU didn't play great that 1H plus that fumble at th 2yard line didn't help nor UNLV. This week Rebels are playing at Air Force which should go over , your thoughts? Also E. Michigan UNDER HAS BEEN GOLD! Unfortunately they can't score but great defense but a covering machine. Also thoughts on Ohio bounce back?


Not sure I'd lay -10 on the road, but on the other hand it's Ohio U. or no play in my mind.  I still think BG is terrible, even though they took my $ last week.  Miami (Ohio) coaches deserved to lose that game straight up with the terrible play call with 1st & goal from the 2 yard line late in the game about to re-take the lead.  Big D-linemen in the game as extra fullbacks.  QB in shotgun formation (really?).  The extra backs shift up closer to the line.  Get reset; luckily no illegal motion call.  Then as the shotgun snap is going back to the QB, big #96 (not usually an offensive player) is already in gotta block somebody mode and the ball brushes against his side when he gets in too soon.  The ball falls to the ground.  QB never gets the ball.  BGSU scoops it up and run 95+ yards for the score.  Nail in the coffin.

Is this the break that HC Jinks (clearly out of his element most games -- not HCing material IMO) and his team needed to get some confidence and start playing well?  Maybe.... but I kind of doubt it.  They did lean heavily on the running game last week (finally -- 1st time in 2017) which was effective during their late 2016 winning streak against other sh!t MAC teams.  That running game will have to carry them if they have a chance here. OU is pretty solid on run D I think.  But their offense is not going to run it up on you.  If BGSU can keep a little mojo going, they might scare the heck out of you at -10.  Tough call.  I'd pass or go small on OU.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Not sure I'd lay -10 on the road, but on the other hand it's Ohio U. or no play in my mind.  I still think BG is terrible, even though they took my $ last week.  Miami (Ohio) coaches deserved to lose that game straight up with the terrible play call with 1st & goal from the 2 yard line late in the game about to re-take the lead.  Big D-linemen in the game as extra fullbacks.  QB in shotgun formation (really?).  The extra backs shift up closer to the line.  Get reset; luckily no illegal motion call.  Then as the shotgun snap is going back to the QB, big #96 (not usually an offensive player) is already in gotta block somebody mode and the ball brushes against his side when he gets in too soon.  The ball falls to the ground.  QB never gets the ball.  BGSU scoops it up and run 95+ yards for the score.  Nail in the coffin.

Is this the break that HC Jinks (clearly out of his element most games -- not HCing material IMO) and his team needed to get some confidence and start playing well?  Maybe.... but I kind of doubt it.  They did lean heavily on the running game last week (finally -- 1st time in 2017) which was effective during their late 2016 winning streak against other sh!t MAC teams.  That running game will have to carry them if they have a chance here. OU is pretty solid on run D I think.  But their offense is not going to run it up on you.  If BGSU can keep a little mojo going, they might scare the heck out of you at -10.  Tough call.  I'd pass or go small on OU.

Meant to add.... my current PR raw #s put this line at 7.7.  Only a week or two earlier I had 11.7 one week and 9.9 the other

Preseason / first few weeks, I had just under and then right at a touchdown.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by trainer4u2:

Hey TD thanks for all your help I'm here in vegas that UNLV game should have gone over 56 but SDSU didn't play great that 1H plus that fumble at th 2yard line didn't help nor UNLV. This week Rebels are playing at Air Force which should go over , your thoughts? Also E. Michigan UNDER HAS BEEN GOLD! Unfortunately they can't score but great defense but a covering machine. Also thoughts on Ohio bounce back?


Forgot you asked about Air Force / UNLV as well.  ... Air Force terrible after Navy every year sticks in my head.  They put all their energy into that rivalry game.  Stay away I think.  Air Force minus the points looks too good to be true at that # (-7.5 currently) but there's a reason for that.

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