Tech angles week 9

Angle #9....Play on an NFL away dog before week 11, who has lost at least their last three games and has had an average of greater than  1 more turnover per game  on offense than their defense  has created in those three games.....110-60-5 ATS (+3.0)......ON Panthers this week (at Denver), and ON Raiders next week (at Bengals). 

This moves to 11-0 ATS (+9.1) in week 8 when those teams are away non-divisional dogs.

How does the ROI compare?....moneyline betting versus pointspread betting?....better or worse??

If we are spread betting that gives us an ROI of around 23.5%.....IF we are moneyline betting the record of those teams straight up has been 55-119 (-4.9).  The average moneyline has been +336.1.  

Doing the calculation.......55 (wins) multiplying by 3.361 = 184.855 units won......we then subtract 119 (units lost) from our units won to get 65 units won.

We take the total units won (65) and divide by total units risked (55+119=175) to get a return on investment of 37.14%....versus the 23.5% ROI betting the pointspread.

ALMOST ALWAYS the higher return when betting underdogs is to take the moneyline, as much as 100% greater the return.

Difficult because you are collecting the cash 31% of the time when on the moneyline and collecting 64.7% of the time betting the pointspread.

Query text.........week<11 and tA(TOM, N=3) > 1 and AD and tS(W, N=3) = 0.0 

I added the units wrong in the last post (should be 174 instead of 175)....the correct ROI is 37.85% for the moneyline calculation,..........my 9th grade math teacher would be cross with me and ask.....

"How could you be so careless??!!"

......lol..

"Sorry Teach!!"

Angle #10....Play on an NFL away dog of >+6 points from weeks 2-13 if their next week line is greater than 3 points stronger than their present opponent's next week line.....96-37-2 (+5.9) ATS.....ON Titans, Panthers

The Panthers will be around +3.5 point dogs to the Saints (doubtful they'll be that high of a dog unless Carr returns for the Saints) and the Broncos will be around 9 point underdogs to the Ravens.

The Lions will be approximately +1 to the Packers and the Titans will be 3 point favorites to the Patriots.

query text........AD and line > 6 and n:line-on:line<-3 and not division = o:division and 13>week>2

If we lower the requirement from -3 to 0 difference in the future lines this remains a historical very high percentage play......132-52-3 ATS, 71.9%

AD and line > 6 and n:line-on:line<0 and not division = o:division and 13>week>2

Did you get an email from killersports?

Angle #11....In NCAA football in week 9, an away dog of less than 14 points with at least a 30 yards per game net total yards advantage (offensive yards gained minus defensive yards allowed) that has lost at least one out of their past three games has gone 43-28 ATS (+2.4), 37-36 straight up (-2.6)....this becomes 38-24 ATS if we eliminate those teams that have won their last two road games.....ON Auburn, Georgia Tech, Central Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri

query text.........tA(total yards-o:total yards) - oA(total yards-o:total yards) > 30 and line < 14 and tS(W, N=3)<3.0 and week = 9 and AD and tS(W@A, N=2)

Adding....

                Plays:                   KOC contest consensus percentage

15)  Michigan State +4.....1 unit              42%        

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

Plays:

9)  Panthers +8....1.5 units....cancelled....cannot play on a team quarterbacked by Bryce Young

check your email got the lions one and the others going both ways.

@Indigo999

 Bol will you have any CFL plays  this week?

@Indigo999

 I/999......BOL with all your action this weekend buddy.......indy

Strong leans on;

  a)  Redblacks minus the points

  b)  Montreal/Winnipeg UNDER

but if I play them they won't be listed here.....

Plays: 

15)  Michigan State +4.....1 unit              42%        

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

Angle #12

  a) Play on an NCAA away dog of less than 14 points

  b) playing at least their third road game

  c)  not on a three game losing streak

  d)  in week 9

  e)  sitting on four wins on the season

  f) who is playing a team that has won 2 or 3 out of their past three home games

32-6-1 ATS (+11.7), 27-12 straight up (+4.5)......ON Buffalo (NCAA), Michigan State....both Michigan State and Buffalo have gone 1-2 in their last three road games, and those teams in that situation have gone 19-3-1 ATS (+12.8)

week = 9 and line < 14 and division = FBS and AD and oS(W@H, N=3) > 1 and AD and streak > -3 and t:wins = 4 and tS(W, N=3) < 3 and tS(W@A, N=3)>=0

Plays:                                         public consensus King of Covers contest

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

Appreciate your time and effort sir.  

Angle #13.....Play AGAINST those teams that CBS experts have chosen when 7 or 8 of them out of 8 have the same team in the NFL.....15-5 ATS going against them this season so far.  This week 7 or 8 (out of 8 experts)  have chosen the Steelers, Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Texans, Packers.

We then would fade those teams  and play ON......NYG, Panthers, Titans, Eagles, Colts, Jaguars.

@Indigo999

 To add fuel to your Titans pick, they catch the Lions in a Vikings, Packers sandwich.

@Indigo999

Do you know if KillerSports is no longer a free access ?

[Quote: Originally Posted by anNFLfan]@Indigo999 Do you know if KillerSports is no longer a free access ?

Kind of inevitable...we've had it very good for a very long time.  I don't begrudge them that they will be charging money for a service they provide, no different than paying a plummer to sort out your waterworks.

Plays:

1)  NCAA  Cincinnati  +4...1 unit              39%

@Indigo999

 1-7-1

Glad you got Rice at +7 or it would be 1-8.

I almost tailed but did not.

Thinking about tailing NFL, you are due.

Yep… I have worse luck… tailed step on a duck last weekend… similar as indigo yesterday…. They are very good cappers … but man I have taken it in the shorts last 2 weekends….   Still believe in ya indigo… as I cap the cappers…. And I’m no spring chicken so I blame no one…. I made the choices….  Gonna tail your early nfl…   I like frisco today… Dallas and they are desperate… trust them over Dallas…. Dallas can score though… so lean over as well.