Tell me what I missed in capping OSU/ILL...seroiuosly.

Disclaimer: I played Illinois already for 5u, a big bet for me.  I have been murdering my big plays (10-2-1 over 3u) as documented on another site.  Happy to send you the link.  PM me.

So I, like many, set lines before they come out.  I am, save smaller conferences, pretty much spot on with many.  I pre-set Illinois at -13.5.  Holy shit.  When I saw it come out at 3.5, and then held off the books for a while, I jumped at 5.5 when it was available. Still smarts to get that awful line BTW.  Obviously one of us is wicked wrong, and I want to figure out why I had such a different opinion than the books and many bettors, who seem to like OSU here.  Frankly I am very tempted to add more at 3.

What I have seen from OSU is not good.  They can't move the ball.  Save the first half against Nebraska, they have not moved the ball with any consistency against decent opponents.  So what do we do with the 1st half against Nebraska?  Here is how I saw it.  Nebraska is not a good defensive team.  They are ranked 65th.  This is not the blackshirt defense of old.  Add to that they just had their ass handed to them by Wisconsin, I feel that they were hungover.  Once they woke up (and Miller was out of the game) OSU couldnt move the ball a lick.  

So now Miller is back, on a gimpy ankle.  His 25/47 this year apparently makes him a lock to rejuvenate a bad offense and move the ball against the 17th ranked Illini D.  The SOS is in OSU favor, but OSu hasn't beaten any teams that are good.  How again is OSU gonna move the ball?

Will the Illini score on OSU?  I did think about the under instead, but 43 in a college game is dicey.  So, yes, I think SH/Jenkins will move the ball enough to cover DD.  

Illinois played against ASU, who might go to Autzen and compete for the W with Oregon, and won.  OSU beat up on CO, who is just awful.  Ill only beat WMU by 3 - anyone say let down after night ASU game?  Persa comes back and inspires NW - Illini still win.  Obviously looked past Indiana, and still ran away with it.

There will be no looking ahead for either team here.  

Besides the fact that this is "the Ohio State University", what did I miss?  

I see Illinois as the better team, more motivated, at home, with triple revenge.  Am I over rating them?

Please do let me know what evidence I have overlooked or discounted.  Should this play lose, I want to figure out why I thought OSU is just another average, really flawed team who I obviously downgraded heavily.  Am I underrating them?

Thanks for the thoughtful comments.

 NOTHING I THINK YOU ON THE RIGHT SIDE ...

I'd love to be the guy who comes on here and says "You're way off" but I think your analysis is spot on.  Take into account that "Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Illinois." (taken from Covers Matchup Trends) and I do not see how OSU is not a bigger dog.  

LOL your using too many mights son. You just said ASU who MIGHT go into Oregon and compete for a W. Thats complete and total dogshit reason. This is why people lose units in this business.  Triple Revenge? Are you kidding? Literally 14 players have been in on those loses.

OSU will kick the dogshit out of this over rated Illinois team. Never put money on a Ron Zook team.

Ok, my point is the ASu thing was to say that they are a really good, if Erickson coached, football team.  Might be wrong, but it is what it is.

I did put money on a Zook coached team against ASU.  And didn't many other times as I thought they would overlook WMU, and Indiana.  I teased them against NW.

But, in reality, the Zook factor is real, and was factored in.

Would love to hear why you think OSU will kick the shit out of Illinois?  Why are they overrated?  How will OSU move the ball?  All my questions still stand.

you could tell last week, when the other suspended players were back and Miller was at QB, that was a completely different OSU team that the one that played the first 5 weeks of the season..

ILL has been impressive, but really hasn't beaten anyone that good outside of ASU (a game that was a huge trap for ASU and one the Devils basically gave to Illinois)

thought OSU looked real good for 3 quarters last week in Lincoln until Bauserman came in..

Not sure the Buckeyes want to start 0-3 in conference play.. dunno, just seems like lot of love for Illinois for not really any good reason

BOL

Thanks for the input SNF.