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The Numbers are screaming at me to take CMU

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Posted: #1

Statistically these teams are not close to being 21 points apart tonight. Add national television into the mix and Central Michigan is the obvious play

 

 
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Posted: #2
Looking at it also and thinking 1st half at +11.5.  I don't know if CMU has the horses to keep it going in the 2nd half.
 
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Posted: #3
did your numbers predict a final score?  
 
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Posted: #4

These MAC teams aren't that far apart.

 
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Posted: #5

The numbers just slapped my face!

 

GO CMU +21

 
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Posted: #6


What slaps me in the face is that Cmich won't come close to scoring 20 points......that means you better hold a pretty potent offense under 40 pts.  I see them getting high 30s, early 40s.

The problem is that more than half their games they haven't hit 20 and one time they did they beat new hampshire.....scoring 24.




 
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Posted: #7
Being a MAC Follower ... Please Do NOT bet more than $30 on this crappy game
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #8

$5000 claiming races are better betting races than the Kentucky Derby. Bad betting games are when both teams are great, this is a 21 point spread on almost equal teams. Its a great game

 

 

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

$5000 claiming races are better betting races than the Kentucky Derby. Bad betting games are when both teams are great, this is a 21 point spread on almost equal teams. Its a great game

 

 


  Equal?

C mich has a 107th offense and has a power ranking of 105 out of 126.

ball state averages almost 475 a game. 
 
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Posted: #10

The teams are carbon copies of eachother except that Ball State throws for about 100 yards more per game. Thats worth about 14 points, not 21.

 

 
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Posted: #11
Ball will ball out and beat this team by at least 20..... equal?... no.

 At home and having a legit season plus primetime only game on tonight.

Dont fade Ball, Bowling Green, or NIU just cuz they play in the MAC.
 
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Posted: #12

Whata talking about?

CMU rushes for 125 a game, Ball state 140...Wow, almost 4 yards per quarter more..

CMU gives up 210 on the ground, Ball State 206..Wow CMU gives up 1 yard more per quarter on the ground

CMU gives up 224 in the Air, Ball State 215..Thats a whopping 3 yards more per quarter.

Does any of this suggest a blowout?

 
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Posted: #13
Look at how much they put up in passing yards..... They pass very well to set up for the run. Take a look at running touchdowns scored for each team.... points for and against on the road and in conference play. Ball only lost to UNT on the road whos proven to be a very a solid team. They were up their behind the whole game. Smoked Virginia on the road too.

CMU has no shot at beating these teams, period. Special teams is better. TO margin is clearly in favor for Ball plus they are playing at home. CMU has 11 passing TDs and 12 interceptions in 8 games..... yup their equal... lmao....

If I'm playing this tonight it's a small play on Ball they made the line pretty nicely on this game. Kinda worried a little bit about that look ahead for NIU next week but they are coming off extra rest as well.
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

The numbers just slapped my face!

 

GO CMU +21



 
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Posted: #15
Did you crunch the numbers in Conference games alone? I wonder if they would differ? 

What about turnover differential? 

C. Mich QB is young with 10 INTs

This game comes down to one matchup, Central Michigans running game vs Ball State defense.

If Central Michigan cant run on them, they are in a world of hurt. Putting the ball in C. Mich QBs hands to many times will prove to be a disaster. This QB is 50% passer, and he is a freshman. 

The two games that makes these teams look similar are two games which I think should be thrown out for comparison.

Ohio vs Central Michigan - Ohio proved last night its too inconsistent and cant stop the run. So eliminate that game from C Mich list

Ball State vs Kent State - Ball State was coming off a road underdog win vs Virginia who at the time was supposed to be good. So the following game for Ball State was a letdown situation. Eliminate that game from Ball St. 

Ball St. QB Wenning is a stud, they are def not carbon copies. Ball St defense is better too. That will be made apparent tonight. But was also visible in the Toledo common opponent. Both teams played Toledo at home. 

If C. Michigan QB throws 2+ INTs Ball State covers the 21

I like the UNDER 57.5  though 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by NumbersCruncher:

The teams are carbon copies of eachother except that Ball State throws for about 100 yards more per game. Thats worth about 14 points, not 21.


You're not adjusting for strength of schedule?  By the way, C Mich has played a much tougher schedule.
 
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Posted: #17
Do you account for special teams?

After I adjust for strength of schedule, it does look like the numbers say that CMU has value, but there must be a reason why CMU's yardage doesn't translate to points as efficiently as Ball State's.
 
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Posted: #18
I'm so glad that I'm not on your side MR Pix :) J/K
 
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Posted: #19
In conference #s:
TEAM OYPPT TO MARGIN/GM

CMU 17.8 -0.5

BALLST 12.4 +0.6

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Pix:


  Equal?

C mich has a 107th offense and has a power ranking of 105 out of 126.

ball state averages almost 475 a game. 

Hmmmm 
 
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Posted: #21

Normally.....equal teams don't drive 96 yards in 3 plays.....normally.


 
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Posted: #22
Ball st 49-3 BC cm players bet on ball st.
 
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Posted: #23
Numbercrunchers sounds like a service
 
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Posted: #24

Hold on friends...I'm re crunching the numbers to see what went wrong here. I'll get to the bottom of this

 

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Mr803:

In conference #s:
TEAM OYPPT TO MARGIN/GM

CMU 17.8 -0.5

BALLST 12.4 +0.6

 

But firstly...What the hell is this?

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