*****thenatural74's WEEK 10 Selections*****

thenatural74's WEEK 10 Selections

Tuesday: Middle Tennessee St. at Arkansas State

Wednesday: Rutgers at South Florida

Rutgers beat South Florida last four years, crushing Bulls 31-0/49-16 the last two years; Scarlet Knights, who recruit heavily in Florida, won both previous meetings here, 49-16 (-19.5)/22-20 (-4). Bulls were ranked 23rd in country LY when they lost 31-0 at Rutgers. Knights are 3-3 this year vs I-A opponents, with five of the six games decided by 5 or less points. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in those games. Rutgers lost 41-21 at Pitt, won 19-14 at FIU, in its two road games. USF is also 3-3 vs I-A foes, scoring 14 or less points in all three losses, 24-31-38 in wins. Four of last five South Florida games stayed under the total. Rutgers ranks 29th nationally in total defense and 25th in the country in scoring defense. They allow teams to convert only 34.6 percent of their third down attempts. The Bulls are a terrible kicking team, hitting only 58 percent of their field goals. Rutgers is the eighth best team in the country in gross punting yards per game (276.8) and hits 71.4 percent of its field goals. The Scarlet Knights average 26 yards per kick return and 8.5 on punt returns. South Florida has been a strange team this season, not scoring an offensive TD in its first two Big East games and then going to Cincinnati and scoring a 38-30 shootout win over the Bearcats as 9 ½-point underdogs. The Bulls have a tough time stopping the pass, so look for QB Chas Dodd to get plenty of time and find some open receivers. Rutgers has had 10 days off since losing to Pitt, so the gameplan should be in place to take down the Bulls in South Florida. The Scarlet Knights are on ATS surges of 8-3 on the road, 18-7-1 as road ‘dogs, 14-6 as a ‘dog anywhere, 5-1 in November games, 6-1 on the road against winning home teams, 4-1 after a bye week and 8-2 as a ‘dog of 10.5 or better. South Florida is on ATS skids of 1-4 in November, 1-4 after a bye week, 1-5 after a straight-up win and 6-16 against winning teams. The underdog has cashed in four of the five series clashes. The Knights don't have many weapons to work with on offense, but Mohamed Sanu is plenty potent. A versatile threat, Sanu leads the team in rushing (286 yards) and receiving (341 yards), while also totaling seven TDs. USF’s last performance has to be a bit concerning considering the Bulls gave up a whopping 590 total yards to Cincinnati. The pass defense was seriously exploited for 512 yards and USF is now permitting an average of 215.1 ypg through the air for the season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +10 WINNER

Thursday: Buffalo at Ohio

Buffalo ranks No. 99 in the nation in total offense at just 319.9 yards per game, and it is only translating into 14.9 points per game, good enough for just No. 115 in the land. Over the L/3 weeks, things have really gotten just awful for UB, as it has only scored a total of 23 points. Quarterback play is the tremendous problem. QB Jerry Davis, just a sophomore, finally had the plug pulled after he completed just 45.4 percent of his passes for 1,224 yards with 12 TDs and 12 INTs. In his place comes QB Alex Zordich, who unfortunately, hasn’t done a heck of a lot better. Zordich threw three picks two weeks ago against the Temple Owls, and he really has done nothing productive since that point. He did throw for 210 yards and generated one TD drive against the Miami Redhawks last week, but this freshman has yet to complete even 50 percent of his passes in a game in his brief collegiate career. Needless to say, this should be a walk in the park for the Bobcats, especially at home, and certainly in a nationally televised game. Since getting nipped at the wire by the Marshall Thundering Herd, Ohio has been a great team, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. The offense has woken up, and though it still only ranks No. 82 in the land in yardage at 341.8 yards per game, its scoring average is up to 29.4 points per game on the season. The unit has scored at least 30 points in five straight and at least 34 in each of its last four. Don’t look for any OU mercy toward rebuilding Buffalo, with its new HC (Jeff Quinn), true frosh QB (Alex Zordich), suffering ground game (only 63 & 55 yards last two game), and undersized defense. Sr. QB Boo Jackson has the Bobcat offense percolating (38 ppg last 5 games). And Frank Solich’s well-coached defense has helped Ohio out-sack its opponents 19 to 9. Bobcats 8-3 their last 11 as a MAC favorite. The Bulls dropped their third straight game this past weekend, falling to Miami-Ohio, 21-9. It was the sixth loss in the last seven contests for Buffalo, which is not a mere 1-3 in league action. Since losing three consecutive games the Bobcats have clawed their way back into the mix of the upper echelon teams in the MAC. Ohio, which is currently riding an impressive five-game winning streak, is coming off a hard-fought, 38-31 decision over Louisiana in a non-conference battle. In league action the Bobcats has won four straight since opening conference action with a 20-13 setback to Toledo. The offense for Buffalo has simply fallen apart. The team has only two offensive touchdowns in its last three games, and was held without a score for eight consecutive quarters of play. Coach Jeff Quinn's team totaled just 265 yards and finished a poor 4-of-17 on third down attempts. The true freshman, Zordich, has taken the spot of Jerry Davis, and has struggled to say the least, completing less than 50.0 percent of his passes, while throwing three interceptions to no touchdowns. Stunting Zordich's growth is the inconsistent ground attack that was brought into light earlier, and comes into this weekend with just 122.2 ypg. Zordich's touchdown run this past weekend was just the second TD on the ground for the Bulls on the season. To make matters worse for Coach Quinn, his defense has been beaten and battered throughout the year and is currently allowing 29.6 ppg. The main problem for this unit has come against the run, as teams are currently dismantling Buffalo for 147.6 ypg, while scoring 15 touchdowns via the run. The defense has also allowed 189.6 ypg through the air and 13 passing Tds. Since coach Solich has taken over in Athens, the Bobcats have been one of the better defensive teams in the conference, and this year is no different as Ohio heads into this contest holding teams to a pedestrian 21.4 ppg. The unit has done an exceptional job against the run, limiting teams to just 115.0 ypg on only 3.1 yards per attempt. What makes this unit even better is its ability to force mistakes, and like in years past the Bobcats have little trouble forcing turnovers. At the present moment this defense has collected 19 takeaways, 13 of which are interceptions.

Thursday: Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech has been a huge under-achiever this season. The Yellow Jackets have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball and on the road, they have been about as bad as any team in the land. Georgia Tech last played on Oct. 23 and fell on the road at Clemson, 27-13 as 3 ½-point underdogs. Their triple-option rushing attack managed just 242 yards and of course the passing of Josh Nesbitt was almost non-existent at 6-of-19 for 83 yards. Defensively, the Jackets allowed Clemson to run for 236 yards (6.2 ypg) and QB Kyle Parker threw for 167 yards and a TD. In the season’s first road game, Georgia Tech went to lowly Kansas and lost outright 28-25 as 13 ½-point favorites. Kansas, as we’ve seen, is about as bad as it gets in college football, not even being competitive in Big 12 action this season. Virginia Tech has certainly got the offense in gear after opening the season with back-to-back losses at home to Boise St. and James Madison. Since those two games, the Hokies have scored 41 or more points in five of their last six games, winning each game and covering the number as a favorite. Common opponents for these two teams are NC State and Wake Forest, with Virginia Tech crushing both squads and covering the spread while Georgia Tech lost outright to NC State in Atlanta 45-28 as an eight-point favorite and the Jackets squeaked by Wake Forest 24-20, failing as an 8 ½-point road chalk. Georgia Tech gives up 23.6 points a game and has trouble stopping the pass. The Hokies average 37 points a game and have a very balanced attack, averaging 209.9 yards per game through the air and 214.8 yards per game on the ground. Virginia Tech has won four of the last six meetings dating back to 2004, including a 20-17 win at home in 2008, but they came up short as 6 ½-point favorites. Georgia Tech really struggles in primetime, going 2-6 ATS in its last eight Thursday games and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a bye week. The Hokies are on ATS surges of 38-15 in ACC games, 17-5 on Thursdays, 17-4 in November contests, 36-16 against winning teams and 4-0 at home. The player who was supposed to be among the nation’s elite this season, Josh Nesbit, is completing a career-low 38.2 percent of his passes for 674 yards with seven touchdowns against three interceptions. With his legs, Nesbitt has gained 651 yards, but has scored just eight touchdowns, compared to 18 he finished with a year ago. Georgia Tech has been sloppy with the ball, turning it over 15 times. Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor has had a quietly dominant season, completing a career-high 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,602 yards with 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions. With his legs, he has rushed for 527 more yards with three scores. Taylor, however, has had defenses loosened up by the running of tailback Darren Evans, who has amassed 443 yards on just 76 carries, scoring a team-high nine times. Evans has found the end zone at least once in each of the team’s past five games. This has been the biggest weakness of Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 53rd nationally in yards allowed per game (354.2), 57th in points allowed (23.6) and 75th in rushing yards allowed per game (162.2). The Hokies are giving up an average of just 5.87 yards per punt return (24th nationally) and overall, the team has blocked two kicks this season, compared to none for the Yellow Jackets. The team also is banging nearly 93 percent of its field goals. There is no secret as to how Georgia Tech will try to move the football against the Hokies. The team is putting up just over 400 yards of total offense this year (402.1), with 317.4 coming on the ground. Of the team's 28 touchdowns scored on offense this year, 21 have come via the run. Tailback Anthony Allen (692 yards, 6.0 ypc, five TDs) and quarterback Joshua Nesbitt (651 yards, 4.1 ypc, eight TDs) handle the majority of the ground work. Nesbitt isn't much of a passer, completing a miserable 38.2 percent of his limited pass attempts, for 674 yards and seven TDs. To further emphasize Tech's inability to throw the football, Stephen Hill represents the team's top receiver this year, with a mere 20 catches, for 165 yards and two scores. The Hokies have evolved into an offensive juggernaut this season and are currently averaging 37.0 ppg. Although this is still a team that enjoys running the football, balance has been the key. Virginia Tech is averaging over 200 yards per game both rushing (214.8) and passing the football (209.9 ypg). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has taken a backseat to some of the nation's top dual threat signal-callers, but he has certainly been equally instrumental in his team's success thus far. Taylor leads the team in rushing with 527 yards, getting it done on 6.2 yards per carry. This is a deep backfield, with Darren Evans (447 yards, 5.9 ypc, nine TDs), David Wilson (440 yards, 6.3 ypc, three TDs) and the oft-injured Ryan Williams (four TDs) all having the ability to move the chains. Taylor's efficiency when dropping back to pass has made Virginia Tech much more potent offensively, completing 63.9 percent of his passes, for 1,602 yards, with 15 TDs and just three INTs. There are a number of viable options down the field, led by WR Jarrett Boykin (31 receptions, for 517 yards, five Tds).

Good stuff Nat....Thanks and GL 

3-1 On the week so far......

Arkansas State Red Wolves +2 WINNER

Rutgers Scarlet Knights +10 WINNER

Ohio Bobcats -15 WINNER

Virginia Tech Hokies -12 LOST

Western Michigan at Central Michigan

It has been a tough debut for Coach Dan Enos at Central Michigan. The last time Western Michigan was in action the team suffered a 28-21 loss to Northern Illinois. It was the fourth loss in the last six games for the Broncos, who are now an even 2-2 in conference action. Central Michigan was the class of the MAC for the past few seasons, but that has all changed abruptly, as the Chippewas have stumbled to 1-5 in conference action, including a recent 17-14 loss to Bowling Green. It was the sixth consecutive setback for CMU, which is just 1-3 at home. The Broncos have relied heavily on the pass since day one of the season, but the problem for Coach Bill Cubit is that he came into the season with an inexperienced quarterback. Alex Carder has done everything possible to make the pass happy offense work, and for the most part he has progressed throughout the season, but the lack of a rushing attack has surely hurt this team's chances of making a better showing in league play. Carder comes into this matchup with 2,299 passing yards and 18 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. The young signal caller has completed 61.3 percent of his throws, but there are times where he can seem overwhelmed and it shows on the field. Fortunately he has the talent of Jordan White and Juan Nunez at his disposal. White, who has six scores on the season, heads into this contest leading the team in receptions (65), and yards (938), while Nunez, who also has six TDs, is right behind him in both categories. Against the Huskies this past weekend, the offense for WMU funneled through Carder, who threw the ball 53 times in the seven-point loss. The gunslinger completed 31-of-53 passes and finished the game with 360 yards and three scores. Carder, however, was also intercepted and sacked twice. White was his main option in the loss, as the wide out finished with 180 yards and a score on 14 receptions. Once again what hurt WMU's success was the ground, which finished with a mere 44 yards on 2.1 yards per attempt. Defensively the Broncos have been nothing special, and in fact, have had their share of struggles against the run and pass. All those problems have led to 27.5 ppg allowed by this unit. In coach Cubit's mind the priority for this defense would be to improve everywhere, but being more realistic, the hope would be that the team can improve against the run. At the present moment the Broncos are being gashed for 169.1 ypg, and the team's inability to stop the run was evident this past weekend as Northern Illinois clobbered WMU for 210 yards and two touchdowns on 4.9 yards per attempt. No one in Mount Pleasant knew what life would be like after Dan LeFevour left for the NFL, but now the fans and coaching staff realize his departure was possibly one of the biggest losses in the nation. The offense for CMU post LeFevour has been abysmal and although Ryan Radcliff has shown signs of being a solid quarterback, the young gunslinger is light years from becoming a top- tier signal caller. On the season, Radcliff has thrown for 2,342 yards and 12 scores, but has also been intercepted 15 times. Cody Wilson and Kito Poblah have combined for 78 receptions and seven touchdowns, giving Radcliff some nice options to throw to, but a lack of success on the ground has also hurt the quarterback's progression. CMU is currently averaging just 114.7 ypg via the run, and is posting just 3.5 yards per attempt. In the team's recent loss to Bowling Green, the Chippewas enjoyed little success offensively, as the team totaled just 231 yards. Radcliff finished with just 132 yards and one score, but was also intercepted once and sacked six times. Once again the ground game was ineffective, as CMU managed just 99 yards on 2.9 yards per attempt. The team's inability to produce offensively, has taken away from CMU's play on the defensive side of the ball, as the Chippewas have put up respectable numbers despite losing seven of their nine games. What seems to be the issue for coach Enos' defense is a lack of big plays, as the team comes into this matchup with just 13 takeaways and 18 sacks. Also this unit has been inconsistent against the run, allowing opponents are rush for over 150.0 yards per game. This past weekend against Bowling Green, the Chippewas only allowed 307 total yards, and that includes just 107 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. However, the unit did surrender two rushing touchdowns, one of which was the game winner in the final minute of action. Central Michigan won four of last five games vs Western Michigan, with Broncos losing last two visits here, 38-28 (-1.5)/31-7 (+6). Broncos are 2-5 vs I-A teams, routing lowly Akron/Ball State. Chippewas lost their last five games (were favored in three of five). MAC home favorites of less than 9 points are 2-4 vs spread this season. The defense for WMU hasn’t played all that poorly of late, as the unit only allowed 28 last week to a strong Northern Illinois outfit, and has only really been mauled by one team, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish since the beginning of October. The Chippewas know that their season is over with, and it’s a wonder to us how they keep ending up being favored in games. Three times this year, they have been favorites by at least 13 points at home in conference, and three times, they have gone away with outright losses. Since beating down the Eastern Michigan Eagles 52-14 in Ypsilanti, the Chippies have dropped six straight SU and have lost their L/5 against the football odds. In that stretch, they haven’t scored more than 25 points in a game and have allowed at least 27 in all but last week’s loss. It really feels like Central Michigan is just waiting for the season to be over. Central Michigan went 0-5 in October and failed to cover the spread in each one of those games.

Western Michigan Broncos +3½

Central Florida at Houston

The Knights split their first four games down the middle to start the season, but once coach George O'Leary's squad opened league action, the team took off, winning four straight games. The most recent win for UCF, which pushed the team to a flawless 4-0 in conference play, was a solid 49-35 decision over East Carolina. As for the Cougars, they bounce back from a two-game slide with back-to-back victories over SMU (45-20) and Memphis (56-17). Both those victories came on the road for Houston, but still pushed Coach Kevin Sumlin's team's league mark to 4-1 on the season. This will be the first home game in nearly a month for the Cougars, who are currently 3-1 at Robertson Stadium this year. The Knights have found success offensively through their devastating rushing attack, which is currently churning out an impressive 199.9 ypg. UCF, which is producing 32.9 ppg, has scored 24 of its 31 offensive touchdowns via the run. At the present moment the leader out of the backfield has been Ronnie Weaver, who seems to improve each week. The tailback has rushed for 638 yards and 10 touchdowns, but the perfect complement to Weaver's play has been the success of quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who is second on the team with 394 yards and five scores. Since the Knights rely so much on their ground game, Godfrey is not called on to make many passes, but when the quarterback gets to throw the ball he is pretty successful, completing 63.6 percent of his throws. This past weekend the Knights had little trouble with East Carolina, and once again it was the ground game that did the majority of the damage, as the Knights finished with 265 yards and five touchdowns via the run. Weaver led the way with 180 yards and added two scores, while Latavius Murray found the end zone three times. As for Godfrey, he only tallied 43 rushing yards, but the quarterback did manage to throw for 159 yards and two touchdowns as well. UCF has the perfect combination for a football team, and that is run the ball with success offensively, while playing flawlessly on defense. Clearly the Knights know how to run the rock, but what has gone unnoticed outside the Conference-USA has been the play of the Knights defensively. UCF is one of the most complete units in the entire nation and comes into this game holding opponents to just 16.5 ppg on a mere 279.9 total ypg. Coach O'Leary's squad has made it a priority to stop the run, and just like last season this defense has done just that, holding teams to a mere 102.6 ypg on just 3.1 yards per attempt. The Cougars are a well oiled machine offensively, and portrays one of the more balanced attacks in the nation. The Cougars are churning out 169.4 ypg on the ground, and that is clearly a respectable number, but the ground game has played second fiddle to the passing attack, which is producing 299.2 ypg through the air. To further show how balanced this attack has been, coach Sumlin's team has scored 20 TDs on the ground, and another 21 scores via the pass. Leading the team on the ground has been Bryce Beall, who has rumbled for 638 yards and 12 scores, while Michael Hayes has contributed 360 yards and eight TDs. When Case Keenum went down with a knee injury few thought the Cougars would be able to survive with David Piland. However, the offense has soared under the young signal caller, who has thrown for 1,108 yards and 11 scores. The main option for Piland has been Patrick Edwards, who is leading the team in receptions (42), yards (639) and touchdowns (8). The last time Houston was on the field the team absolutely demolished Memphis, totaling 651 yards. Hayes led the team on the ground with 123 yards and one touchdown, but the game belonged to Piland, who threw for 292 yards and five touchdowns. Edwards hauled in two touchdowns in the win and finished with 78 yards on four catches. Not all is well for the Cougars however, as coach Sumlin's team has been vulnerable defensively. Houston comes into this matchup allowing 28.0 ppg, and the biggest concern has been the team's play against the run, as opponents are gashing Houston for 194.2 ypg. Out of the 28 touchdowns allowed by this unit, 17 have come via the run. Two of those 17 rushing touchdowns came this past weekend, as the Tigers found no trouble running the ball against Houston. The Knights are ninth nationally in total yards allowed (279.9), 11th in points given up (16.5), 13th in rushing yards allowed (102.6) and 16th in passing yards given (177.2) per game. Houston, however, is the polar opposite. The Cougars are more like a satin sheet than a steel curtain on defense. The hosts are 79th in the country in total defense, yielding a stunning 391.1 yards per game. That is mostly due to poor tackling and being unable to get off blocks as teams are running over the Central Florida is 26th in the country in punt returns (11.81 yards per attempt) and 11th in kickoff run backs (25.78). The team also is good at forcing long field goals, as opponents are making a meager 33 percent of their kicks against the Knights, the third-lowest total in the country. Houston is pretty mediocre on special teams, only really excelling at one thing: blocking kicks. The Cougars have blocked three kicks this season, the third-highest mark in the country. Houston also is 13th nationally in punt returns, averaging 15.2 yards per attempt. There isn’t a better cover team in the nation than Central Florida. In spite of its overall and ATS record, UCF still remains one of the most underrated teams in the nation. The toughest defense that Houston has faced this season was Mississippi State, which ranks a couple notches below UCF at 34.

Central Florida Knights -1½