$$$$ Thursday - CFB Week 1 $$$$

Question

Finally, almost here.....There are 2 main sports seasons in this country. Football season and waiting for football season.

I have 4 games locked in......1 large play

Central Michigan +24.5 2 U

Tulane +7.5 2U (should have bet it at 10)

Central Florida -13.5 -120 3U

LARGE

Utah -5.5 5U

There is a ton of value here with Utah -5.5......The public is all over Michigan and with good reason.....Michigan received a ton of positive press throughout the offseason with the hiring of Hardbaugh...He is indeed a great coach and everybody knows this...A lot of casual CF bettors are banking on Hardbaugh turning this team around in one offseason, without even taking the field in one game. His first 2 seasons at Stanford he was 9 - 15......Give him at least a half season.

Just as Michigan gets a ton of press, Utah gets very little......They are not a sexy team to follow and somewhat new to a major CONF having joined the PAC 12 a few years ago....Majority of casual bettors who are betting on Michigan are doing so because of Michigans reputation but mostly they are betting on Hardbaugh....They probably do not know that Utah beat Stanford, UCLA and USC last season....Some dont know that Utah actually beat Michigan 26-10 at MICH. last season...They dont know how good Utah's defense is and dont know that they are brining back 8 starters on each side of the ball and will be just as strong or stronger this season...They may not know the PAC 12 is much stronger than the Big 10 as a whole.(We all know how good OHST is) They may not even know that MICH was a 5 win Big 10 team and Utah won 9 games against a much tougher schedule...With Michigan being the popular play here its possible the line may drop before game day....I am thinking the sharps will be throwing down some big money on the other side drivivg the line back up to 6+ before KO though.

Good Luck Fellas

MikeMed · Answer

Finally, almost here.....There are 2 main sports seasons in this country. Football season and waiting for football season.

I have 4 games locked in......1 large play

Central Michigan +24.5 2 U

Tulane +7.5 2U (should have bet it at 10)

Central Florida -13.5 -120 3U

LARGE

Utah -5.5 5U

There is a ton of value here with Utah -5.5......The public is all over Michigan and with good reason.....Michigan received a ton of positive press throughout the offseason with the hiring of Hardbaugh...He is indeed a great coach and everybody knows this...A lot of casual CF bettors are banking on Hardbaugh turning this team around in one offseason, without even taking the field in one game. His first 2 seasons at Stanford he was 9 - 15......Give him at least a half season.

Just as Michigan gets a ton of press, Utah gets very little......They are not a sexy team to follow and somewhat new to a major CONF having joined the PAC 12 a few years ago....Majority of casual bettors who are betting on Michigan are doing so because of Michigans reputation but mostly they are betting on Hardbaugh....They probably do not know that Utah beat Stanford, UCLA and USC last season....Some dont know that Utah actually beat Michigan 26-10 at MICH. last season...They dont know how good Utah's defense is and dont know that they are brining back 8 starters on each side of the ball and will be just as strong or stronger this season...They may not know the PAC 12 is much stronger than the Big 10 as a whole.(We all know how good OHST is) They may not even know that MICH was a 5 win Big 10 team and Utah won 9 games against a much tougher schedule...With Michigan being the popular play here its possible the line may drop before game day....I am thinking the sharps will be throwing down some big money on the other side drivivg the line back up to 6+ before KO though.

Good Luck Fellas

WahooS · Answer

I&#x27;m leaning to Michigan from a coaching edge POV but it won&#x27;t be an easy task against the Utesbest of luck

MedicalMaryJay · Answer

First person I&#x27;ve seen on Utah, you MAY be on to something, however....Idk why anyone is bothering choosing a side. The play in this game is the under. This is going to be a low scoring game. Utah defense was very good last year and they return eight starters. Michigan returns seven starters on a defense that gave up 22.4 puts/ game last year, PLUS a senior Stanford transfer CB and they get back their best MLB who was injured for 11 games last year and they also get their stud DE who is now a redshirt freshman and their prize recruit of 2014. under 46 imo

McGuire87 · Answer

Michigan QBs were 18/39 0 TDs 3 INTs in last years game. Highly doubt it is this bad again with a different offensive system + better coaches.

Meanwhile, Michigan outgained Utah by 22 yards in this game. 2.2 yards/rush for Utah. Michigan was also 9/19 on 3rd down and 2/4 on 4th down.

Utah being a small favorite is correct in this game - I'm not saying MIchigan is a high % to win this outright - but the game last year came down to the -3 turnover differential in this game last year.

Complete stay away for me. To many better games on the board to play...leanage to Michigan.

MikeMed · Answer

Yeah Utah played a lousy game AT Michigan last season.....As you pointed out their 1500 YD RB had a terrible game...A lot of things went wrong, even their back-up QB came in and gave MICH 6 points throwing an easy pick 6......There defense played great however like they had all season but had had their OFF even contributed a little this would have been a complete blow out.......They won 26-10 the way it was.........I would agree with you though if Michigans offense is a lot better, Utah dosent create turnovers, Michigans "D" plays great and holds Utah to another season low rushing effort than yeah Michigan has a shot.

RandyResort · Answer

i agree with your plays, but for some reason that central florida pick doesn&#x27;t look right.i predict a 3-1 day for ya!!BOL

McGuire87 · Answer

Utah offense didn&#x27;t roll because Michigan was a really good defensive team last year. 2nd in B10 in defensive yards/play and 3rd in defensive yards/rush. Nearly entire OL and defensive 2-deep returns (did lose a 2nd and 4th rd picks on defense...but should fill those gaps without much dropoff in talent). You&#x27;re not giving UM credit where it is due, and that could cost you.

Dogberto · Answer

I&#x27;m with Mike Med. Yeah Mich has a good defense however their offense isn&#x27;t very good and will struggle on the road on Thursday night against one of the best front 7 in the country.  This is Utah deepest and most talented team ever.  More so than the sugar bowl and Fiesta bowl teams.  Mich was a bad team last year and it is tough to flip flop in the first year of a new coach.  Utah was a pretty solid team last year and are suppose to be better this year.  Being at home with a more improved team I would have to predict the game final to be similar to last year 27 - 10.I also agree that the under is a great play.  Have to imagine both teams start slow, defense controls the game and the offensive game plans are pretty conservative.

MikeMed · Answer

I realize that MICH has a very good defense....I also have to take into consideration the difference of level of competition as well though...MICH went 3-5 in Big 10 play....And I know the Big 10 is tough....They were obviously going to lose to MICH ST and Ohio ST. Those are PAC 12 like offenses but they were not as strong against teams like Minnesota who was clearly the better team and Rutgers offense rolled....I give them credit for their defensive effort against Notre Dame even though they lost 31 - 0.....There Defense also played great against Northwestern and they actually won that game....10-9....Bottom line is that there are 3 phases of the game and really good defenses also create turnovers....I do not think this pick is a lock, and  I do not think this line is way off....I just see alot of value here based on looking at all 3 phases of both teams and the results of their games based on level of competition....Hardbaugh may have already turned MICH into a national contending powerhouse...Its possible to turn a bad team into a great team and create a winning culture

syracusejoe · Answer

Good luck this season buddy. I agree with the Utah play. I am looking at this one hard. I usually only do a couple of plays and this may be one of them. Looking at the under in this as well but I can see some turnovers

MikeMed · Answer

Yeah, UCF was -14 but I bought the line down to 13.5 at -120......I think UCF is much more talented on both sides of the ball and should cover this spread...I may turn this into a large 5 unit play as I just dont see a lot to like on Saturdays card.

DevinnE · Answer

Well, I hope you are right on Tulane..

MikeMed · Answer

Your not alone, there are a lot of people that are betting on Hardbaugh.Good luck to you as well.

mjm1012 · Answer

GL

MikeMed · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by syracusejoe] Good luck this season buddy. I agree with the Utah play. I am looking at this one hard. I usually only do a couple of plays and this may be one of them. Looking at the under in this as well but I can see some turnovers [/Quote

Whats up brother.......Looking forward to see who you are on this week....Also cant wait to hear your take on the CUSE this season...I also could easily see this game going under 45 as both defenses are talented but I like this play a little more........Best of luck this season Joe.

GoCards914 · Answer

Im also on Utah with the OP. Not a popular pick amongst the Covers forum but everyone is on Michigan. I think it will be a rowdy atmosphere with a good Utah team that is going under the radar. Jim Harbaugh cannot change the Michigan team over night. I think Michigan fans are expecting a little too much especially in the FIRST game of the season and a ROAD game.

Goodluck all!

McGuire87 · Answer

So the 2015 season for UM will be just like the 2014 season. Do you work for ESPN?

huskyfb40 · Answer

I am somewhat surprised that most folks do not realize the two most important issues that affected Michigan's play last year...are gone. That being QB Devin Gardner (turnover machine) and OC Doug Nussmeir. I have never seen a more pathetic offensive system than what he runs. Saban had Kiffin come into Alabama to "assess" their offense under Nussmeir because it didn't perform well. Anyone remember that?

THIS year, Michgan returns most starters from the #7 ranked defense in the country last year and adds one of their best LB who was injured all of last year and Jabril Peppers, whom WILL be a household name by seasons end if he doesn't get hurt in the first half of the first game again. There is a reason Booker only ran for 36 yards vs UM last year and a reason Utah struggled to move the ball. The difference in that game was a Utah punt return TD and 3 turnovers. I wouldn't bank on that happening again.

The big question in this game IS...can Harbaugh get either Rudock or Morris to play well at QB...an NO ONE knows the answer to that question. If the answer is yes, UM can definitely win this game. All of the praise being given to Utah doesn't make much sense to me....apparently 95% of coaches and sportswriters feel this team isn't even top 25. Someone in a previous thread also dug up their home record over the past 4 seasons which was unimpressive considering how folks seem to think Utah is practically unbeatable at home.

Bottom line guys....UNDER 46 is a very good bet for this game given how GOOD both defense are and how poorly Utah's offense played vs MIchigan last year. Utah is also breaking in a new OC and it had been said Travis Wilson flat out sucked during the first week of camp. Utah did not score a single offensive TD in their spring game. Utah is not moving the football in this game, period. Michigan will likely struggle to move the ball too.

MikeMed · Answer

No, they will have a better year in 2015.....I have Michigan going 7-5....I could be wrong....ESPN as well as all media outlets have them winning 7 - 8 games...They are too talented to have another 5 win season.

MikeMed · Answer

No question the QB play was the weakness of this team last season...Gardner and Shane Morris were awful and Iowa Transfer Jake Rudock will be a big improvement......Their defense played well against Utah in last years game cant argue that......I know MICH "D" is ranked 7th in YDS allowed but they play in the Big 10....I believe there are 5 teams in the Big 10 that are ranked in the top 10 in YDS allowed as there are a lot of weak offenses in the Big 10....(no, not every team just more than any of the other major CONF)No suprise Utah is not ranked......They finished the season ranked....Opening polls are not based on results.......As far as the new O.C., the head coach named the QB coach and the "O" Line coach each CO offensive coordinators...So not much changes, no new playbook....Their QB Travis Wilson is entering his 4th season as a starter....Last season he threw for 61% - 18 TD&#x27;s and only 5 INTS...Michigan will have more of challenge breaking in Hardbaughs new pro style offense....I just think that this is a tall order for the debut and it would have been more ideal if they had a couple cupcake teams to start the year out with.....I could very well be wrong.....I am not predicting a blow out as I am well aware of Michigans talent and admit if you took away all Michigans errors last season in this game and took away Utah&#x27;s positive plays the game would have been even.

mtp104 · Answer

Mike Med,&#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ll make this simple Jabrill Peppers and Drake Harris!  Michigan wins turnover battle and edges Utah out by 10!&#xD;&#xA;over think this one.  Seriously it&#x27;s that simple Harbaugh storyline and Michigan is going to lose to UTAH come on man!

MikeMed · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by mtp104]  Mike Med,&#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ll make this simple Jabrill Peppers and Drake Harris!  Michigan wins turnover battle and edges Utah out by 10!&#xD;&#xA;over think this one.  Seriously it&#x27;s that simple Harbaugh storyline and Michigan is going to lose to UTAH come on man!  &#xD;&#xA; I did not mean any dis respect to Michagan or Hardbaugh fansMaybe Michigan will come into Utah and do what USC could not do last season.....If they do win I will be the first to congradulate you guys and admit I was wrong.Good luck guys&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]

mtp104 · Answer

Mike med,No disrespect taken at all.  Michigan is not going to struggle like last season and Utah shouldn&#x27;t either .  Both defenses are legit!  Offensive struggle theus day night! 5.5 to many.   Under is the play or do what I did and but 1 point and I got michigan at 7 but then again I don&#x27;t advise point buying.  Good luck

fadetowin · Answer

Love the Utah pick as well, although I waited until today when the line dropped to 4.5 to bet it. Everyone raises good points about Michigan, but I do not see Harbaugh turning water into wine this quickly and Utah brings back a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, not to mention Rice-Eccles being an extremely tough environment to play especially on opening night.

BOL to all!

MikeMed · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by mtp104]  Mike Med,&#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ll make this simple Jabrill Peppers and Drake Harris!  Michigan wins turnover battle and edges Utah out by 10!&#xD;&#xA;over think this one.  Seriously it&#x27;s that simple Harbaugh storyline and Michigan is going to lose to UTAH come on man!  &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]Michigans offense probably did a better job of taking care of the ball than Michigans defense did taking it away last season....Not sure where to look those stats up but seemed like Michigan always lost the TO battle.....There were 6 Big 10 teams that ranked in the top 15 in YDS allowed and Michigan was ranked 7 which is good.....But its not like they were playing high powered offenses week to week like Big 12 or Pac 12 teams...Big 10 offenses ON AVERAGRE were just not very strong compared to other confrences..Just sayin I dont remember that defense making big time, game changing plays.....I dont think this defense is special. I dont see anything out there that suggesting "Michigan wins the turnover battle"  exept maybe that they are way over due to start making some plays.......Did Michigans "D" play better than Utahs "D" in last seasons game in YDS allowed? Yes they did....Just because Michigan was bad last year means their going to be bad this year?  No it does not......They will be better this year....In fact, I believe Michigan has a lot of raw talent on that team.....They proved that when they went punch for punch with Ohio ST for a half of game.Actually, I play future games and I have Michigan -3  VS  Minnesota on OCT 31.....I believe Michigan will get better as the year goes on.....I like this Utah play a lot right now but would not like it as much in week 8.Right now I think Utah is a better team than Michigan on a neutral field....So this game being at Utah and getting a low number I love this game......I think Hardbaugh is a great hire and I love the story line because I think it directly affected this line but like I said earlier Hardbaugh was 9-14 at Stanford his first 2 years and there is only so much a coach can do in 1 offseason..........If I lose, I will be the 1st one to admit I was wrong and give credit where credit is due.

$$$$ Thursday - CFB Week 1 $$$$

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