Thursday, October 02, 2014 7:00 PM
Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida International Golden Panthers
(FAU -7, 47)
The annual Shula Bowl is finally here lol. Kind of an under-looked, Thursday night game for most people, but I find some value in it. Both of these teams are coming off of conference wins as FAU came from behind to beat UTSA and FIU defeated UAB. I'll go on and say it early.....I like FIU plus the points in this on and here are the reasons why. I'll just be throwing out a lot of numbers from articles I ran across here and there at times so just bare with me. I think there is a lot of value in playing home underdogs in a rivalry game that have a really good defense. Florida Atlantic began the season by taking on two highly ranked teams on the road, and both games resulted in blowout losses. They were outscored in the Alabama and Nebraska games by a combined 96-7. They’ve also been beat by Wyoming. Their 2-wins both came at home, beating Tulsa 50-21, and last week 41-37 over Texas San Antonio. Meanwhile, the Golden Panthers lost at home to Bethune Cookman at the beginning of the season. Then last week, FIU was a 13.5 point underdog on the road versus UAB, and came away with an impressive 34-20 upset win. The defense forced 6 UAB turnovers in that game, and two of the touchdowns came on interceptions returns.
Lets start with the Florida Atlantic Owls and some stats for them. The Owls offense, led by versatile junior QB Jaquez Johnson, has been highly productive at home (463.5 yards and 45.5 points per game), but must prove that it can produce on the road (213.7 yards and 8.7 points in three outings). The Owls are ranked 114 on offense, averaging 313.6 yards per game. They are averaging 128.2 yards rushing and 185.4 yards passing so far this season. They are 0-3 while on the road this season, 1-0 against conference opponents and 1-3 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Owls are averaging 8.7 scoring, and holding teams to 38.7 points scored on defense. The Owls have used two signal callers in 2014, Jaquez Johnson and Greg Hankerson. Johnson sported a 172.6 passing ef?ciency last week and has a 156.42 ef?ciency on the season. Florida Atlantic is 2-3 straight up and 3-1-1 against the line so far this year. They are averaging 23.4 points per game, and giving up 34.8 points per game on the defensive side of the ball. On offense, Florida Atlantic is averaging 128.2 rushing yards per game on 34 attempts, 3.8 yards per carry average. They are throwing the ball 27 times per game for a total of 185 yards, averaging 5 yards per passing attempt. Overall, Florida Atlantic has gained 314 total yards per game on an average of 61 plays. On defense, Florida Atlantic is allowing 503 yards per game on 77 plays for a 7 yards per play average. They have given up 14 yards per point so far this year. Florida Atlantic’s opponents have run the ball 52% of the time, and are averaging 6 yards per rushing attempt. The team has allowed completions on 52.2% of its opponents’ passing attempts, good for 281 passing yards per game (8 yards per passing attempt).
Now onto the Florida International Golden Panthers. This unit is the most improved defense in Conference USA. They know how to put pressure on the quarterback (second in C-USA with 18 sacks) and force turnovers (second in the FBS with 17 turnovers gained). The Panthers are playing a wild brand of defense bringing pressure from a variety of areas and leaving their cornerbacks in one-on-one matchups but it only appears that way. They apply pressure at all times even in base defense formations. The Panthers are among the national leaders in several defensive categories. FIU is currently No. 23 in total defense (317.8 yards-allowed-per-game), No. 59 in rushing defense (139.8 yards-per-game), No. 20 in passing defense (178.0 yards-per-game), No. 14 in team sacks (3.60 per-game), and tied for second in turnover margin (+10) and in turnovers gained (17). FIU also is tied for first with Virginia in fumbles recovered (10) and ranks No. 11 in the nation with seven interceptions. The Panthers are ranked 122 on offense, averaging 271.6 yards per game. They are averaging 85.8 yards rushing and 185.8 yards passing so far this season. At home the Golden Panthers are averaging 18.5 scoring, and holding teams to 23.2 points scored on defense. They are averaging 22 points per game so far in 2014, while allowing 23 points a game to its opponents. They have a 3-1-1 record against the spread, with a 2-3 straight up record. Defensively, their opponents are averaging 139.8 rushing yards per game on 43 attempts, a 3.3 yards per carry average. They are throwing the ball 26 times per game for a total of 178 yards, averaging 5 yards per passing attempt. Overall, their opponents have gained 318 total yards per game on an average of 69 plays. On offense, they are averaging 272 yards per game on 65 plays, for a 4 yards per play average. They are averaging 13 yards per point so far this year. They run the ball 54% of the time, and are averaging 2.4 yards per rushing attempt. The team has completed 51.7% of its passing attempts, good for 185.8 passing yards per game (6.2 yards per passing attempt).
I look for FAU to spread the ball a good bit as they have already found 17 different receivers. But I think this plays into the strengths of FIU and their defense. FIU has a superb defense averaging forcing 3 turnovers a game. This is a pretty even match based on offense with a small edge going to FAU, but FIU has the edge in special teams and in defense. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5-games between these teams. If you have to buy the number up to get the +7 then that is fine if you want the security of having that key number. I got it fairly early at that line but I feel they win outright anyway so I'll leave that up to you. BOL to everyone!
Florida International Golden Panthers +7
Florida International Golden Panthers ML +210
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