That Toledo -21 opening line was unbelievably low, but I would still take the Rockets -26. Ball State belongs on the short list of worst teams in the country, next to BYU, K-State, and SJSU...
Since losing their starting QB, Ball St has been terrible on both sides of the ball. The last 3 weeks they have scored a total of 15 points.
56-9 @ Central Michigan
31-3 vs Akron
55-3 @ WMU
Their defense cant stop the pass, their just as bad against the run, and their QB is the worst ive seen this year. Their QB is averaging 3.8 YPA with 0 TD and 6 Int's...
Toledo and Ball St have both played CMU and Akron in back to back weeks, and while Ball ST had a point differential of -65 w a combined score of 87-12. Toledo won both contests with a combined score of 78-31, which gives them a +57 MOV...
Toledo's wins were even more impressive than the final score indicated, 10 of Central Michigan's 13 total drives were 3 and outs, and the Chippewa offense only managed 3 pts before scoring a TD with 1 minute left in legit garbage time.
The next week Toledo dominated Akron, leading 38-7 before putting in the second and 3rd string QB's... Both drives ended in scores, with a TD and FG... Aside from the EMU game, Toledo has been able to put up points even once the game was out of reach, and they were running the ball to eat the clock...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
That Toledo -21 opening line was unbelievably low, but I would still take the Rockets -26. Ball State belongs on the short list of worst teams in the country, next to BYU, K-State, and SJSU...
Since losing their starting QB, Ball St has been terrible on both sides of the ball. The last 3 weeks they have scored a total of 15 points.
56-9 @ Central Michigan
31-3 vs Akron
55-3 @ WMU
Their defense cant stop the pass, their just as bad against the run, and their QB is the worst ive seen this year. Their QB is averaging 3.8 YPA with 0 TD and 6 Int's...
Toledo and Ball St have both played CMU and Akron in back to back weeks, and while Ball ST had a point differential of -65 w a combined score of 87-12. Toledo won both contests with a combined score of 78-31, which gives them a +57 MOV...
Toledo's wins were even more impressive than the final score indicated, 10 of Central Michigan's 13 total drives were 3 and outs, and the Chippewa offense only managed 3 pts before scoring a TD with 1 minute left in legit garbage time.
The next week Toledo dominated Akron, leading 38-7 before putting in the second and 3rd string QB's... Both drives ended in scores, with a TD and FG... Aside from the EMU game, Toledo has been able to put up points even once the game was out of reach, and they were running the ball to eat the clock...
Toledo won 37-19 last year, which was played in a thick fog. Ball St QB, Riley Neal threw for 260 yards 2 TD's 0 Ints and 14 carries for 85 yards. Their #1 WR Damon Hazelton had 12 rec 103 yds 1 TD transferred to Virginia Tech. That's quite a bit of production to replace.
The scheduling of this game is very similar to last year, this year they will play at the end of October, last year they played the first week of November. Last year Toledo had Western Michigan the next week, making it a bit of a look ahead game. This year Toledo has Northern Illinois on deck, which will be a huge game for the MAC championship.
Trends:
The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 (Favors Toledo)
Toledo is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. (Toledo)
Toledo is 9-2 ATS against teams with losing records. (Toledo)
Toledo is 12-4-1 ATS after accumulating 200 yards rushing
Toledo 36-17-1 ATS following a game where they won by +20
Toledo is 1-4 ATS in last 5 meetings (Ball St)
Ball State:
Ball St is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games (Toledo)
Ball St is 2-6 ATS after allowing 200 yards rushing (Toledo)
Ball St is 5-16 ATS at home vs a team w winning record (Toledo)
Ball St 0-4 ATS after accumulating less than 100 rush yards
Ball St is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games
Usually I would have a tough time backing a 26 pt road favorite, but Ball St is a mess right now. I obviously dont like that I missed the opening line of 21, but Toledo is one of the best offenses in the country and should have no problem scoring +40.... Toledo will have to beat themselves for them not to cover, Ball ST will need to get a few turnovers and non offensive scores.
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Toledo won 37-19 last year, which was played in a thick fog. Ball St QB, Riley Neal threw for 260 yards 2 TD's 0 Ints and 14 carries for 85 yards. Their #1 WR Damon Hazelton had 12 rec 103 yds 1 TD transferred to Virginia Tech. That's quite a bit of production to replace.
The scheduling of this game is very similar to last year, this year they will play at the end of October, last year they played the first week of November. Last year Toledo had Western Michigan the next week, making it a bit of a look ahead game. This year Toledo has Northern Illinois on deck, which will be a huge game for the MAC championship.
Trends:
The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 (Favors Toledo)
Toledo is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. (Toledo)
Toledo is 9-2 ATS against teams with losing records. (Toledo)
Toledo is 12-4-1 ATS after accumulating 200 yards rushing
Toledo 36-17-1 ATS following a game where they won by +20
Toledo is 1-4 ATS in last 5 meetings (Ball St)
Ball State:
Ball St is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games (Toledo)
Ball St is 2-6 ATS after allowing 200 yards rushing (Toledo)
Ball St is 5-16 ATS at home vs a team w winning record (Toledo)
Ball St 0-4 ATS after accumulating less than 100 rush yards
Ball St is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games
Usually I would have a tough time backing a 26 pt road favorite, but Ball St is a mess right now. I obviously dont like that I missed the opening line of 21, but Toledo is one of the best offenses in the country and should have no problem scoring +40.... Toledo will have to beat themselves for them not to cover, Ball ST will need to get a few turnovers and non offensive scores.
When looking at all the key metrics for setting a line, it makes sense that Ball St is +26, but those stats are very misleading. Ball State was a different team the first 3 weeks when they had a legitimate QB. Instead of looking at the entire season, you get a much better picture of who Ball St really is by looking at their last 3 games with their backup QB. That changes their Points per game from 18 to 5.
Toledo played with Miami for 3 quarters, but they gave up 254 rushing yards to Mark Walton and 52 points. That completely skews their opp yards per play, opp yards per rush, opp yards per point, points per game. Miami's defense also held Toledo to 2.4 ypc, which disguises how efficient Toledo's rush offense really is.
There's one player that could change the game for Ball st is DE Anthony Winbush who has 13.5 TFL with 9.5 sacks and 4 FF. Toledo has had several drives end, and games change because of sacks or holding calls. Even though they outgained EMU by almost 200 yards they had a few redzone sacks, penalties that killed their drives and resulted in no points...
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When looking at all the key metrics for setting a line, it makes sense that Ball St is +26, but those stats are very misleading. Ball State was a different team the first 3 weeks when they had a legitimate QB. Instead of looking at the entire season, you get a much better picture of who Ball St really is by looking at their last 3 games with their backup QB. That changes their Points per game from 18 to 5.
Toledo played with Miami for 3 quarters, but they gave up 254 rushing yards to Mark Walton and 52 points. That completely skews their opp yards per play, opp yards per rush, opp yards per point, points per game. Miami's defense also held Toledo to 2.4 ypc, which disguises how efficient Toledo's rush offense really is.
There's one player that could change the game for Ball st is DE Anthony Winbush who has 13.5 TFL with 9.5 sacks and 4 FF. Toledo has had several drives end, and games change because of sacks or holding calls. Even though they outgained EMU by almost 200 yards they had a few redzone sacks, penalties that killed their drives and resulted in no points...
I was looking at Toledo as well - they have a lot of power 5 talent on that team and Ball ST has none and are playing as bad as anybody in the country...
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Good stuff Lopez
I was looking at Toledo as well - they have a lot of power 5 talent on that team and Ball ST has none and are playing as bad as anybody in the country...
No kidding, Ball State has been simply putrid since they lost their starting QB and best RB. Last week CMU was only laying -3 against them and beat them by nearly 50. At this point, I would probably even lay 14 points again them with both Kent and BGSU they're that bad.
Last 4 games, Ball has lost by a combined score of 200-32.. I kid you not.
I wouldn't even offer their games if I was making book.
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No kidding, Ball State has been simply putrid since they lost their starting QB and best RB. Last week CMU was only laying -3 against them and beat them by nearly 50. At this point, I would probably even lay 14 points again them with both Kent and BGSU they're that bad.
Last 4 games, Ball has lost by a combined score of 200-32.. I kid you not.
I wouldn't even offer their games if I was making book.
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