Tonight's Game and Why

We hit UTSA lastnight, let's see if we can get them tonight.    Let's look at some numbers:

-5.5  Syra   87  68  73 68

        Sfla   16 131 119 117

Line opened at 5.5 for Syr, currently 3.5.    Line most likely dropped as Starting Qb for Syracuse is not playing due to Shoulder surgery.  Syra is better in Total Def, 68/131, Sagarin rank at 73/119 and sched strength 68/117.   SF is better in Total off at 16/87.  Based on a write up I read the back up is a kid named  Carlos Del-Rio-Wilson   3 TDs and 6 Interceptions based on limited play or they may take a Wildcat approach - whatever that means. 

I have no data where a game was played on a neutral field with an opening line of 5.5 and a similar scenario; however, many of my regular season data - indicates take the bottom team as they have a good chance of winning straight up.   As much as it pains me to say this - I gotta go with the numbers and take USF +3.5.   

My plays:

1.  USF  +3.5  

good luck all

Good Luck , bud  

I thought they play Thursday.

games tomorrow

It is Thursday, today is Wednesday, I did the same thing and thought they played tonight......Anxious I guess.....

@WISEGUY36

 Thanks bud

@GotPhoTai

 Lol - your right - I'm an idiot.

@JuanDab

 Thanks.   

@KeyMaster

 lol-too excited.    I came back from an office party - maybe that's why.   Oh well.  

@TheBuddah

 Backup QB Del-Rio Wilson is now listed as Out as well. So who will be qb? Wonder if it goes otb? 

@DevildogCapper

 i doubt it goes off the board - too many unknowns doesn't faze vegas.   just adjust the line accordingly.  I'm sure will find out soon.  Definitely a be careful game. 

@TheBuddah

Good luck Buddah.  

B 

QB1 through QB3 have looked awful this year for Cuse. If they are to win it will be because of an overall team talent advantage. If it’s close in the second half I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cuse run game wear down USF and take the game over. I’m on USF small to start. 

@insatiable

@D-Town

@Fuse

 Thanks guys - I really appreciate it. 

@jp1lsu

 I think you are right on target with the strategy.    I calculate numbers and follow patterns that have been proven in the past with opening lines and scenarios.   The problem - when you have a qb change it becomes more of a gamble which I try to avoid or become very cautious of.   In this case, I already bet USF +3.5 - hope their offense kicks in and they can score more than the other guys and like you mentioned hopefully cuse will pound the ball and the clock keeps rolling. BOL to ya bud.   

@TheBuddah

@westlake888

 Thanks and back at ya bud

@TheBuddah

 Good luck Buddha 

I only got +3 with USF...but dogs sem to mostly be the play and all the weird opt outs and transfer portal malarkey doesnt seem relevant anyway.

GL on your play @TheBuddah 

@Flyguy1700

 Thanks bud and back at ya

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac and back at ya

@warrenator

 I got it yesterday - you can say that again.  BOL to ya

@TheBuddah

Well Done   

@Maukaboy

@Ruby664

@WISEGUY36

@insatiable

 Thanks guys.   Pretty nice nite. 

@TheBuddah

 good job buddy. Keep it going