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TT vs SMU: my favorite play of the weekend.

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Posted: #1
Texas tech goes into SMU  Friday night with so many questions on both sides of the ball that I Smell a upset. I am not betting this game because what I think SMU can do, I'm betting it because what I know TT can't do.

Tech will be splitting time with 2 true freshmen QBs and a depleted offensive line.  Tech will be without their starting offensive  guard.

Tech has suspended their tight end for the first half, he was 3rd in receiving yards last year for the red raiders.

Both teams have terrible defenses but I just don't see Texas tech winning this game. In my opinion if you can't decide what true freshmen QB, it's a very bad sign. 

SMU ml +170 5 units wins 8.5 units

SMU +4 10 units



 
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Posted: #2
Adding SMU adjusted spread -3.5 (+240) 2 units.
 
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Posted: #3

 cheers m8. Was starting too think I was the only one

 
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Posted: #4
Mirage has 5.5 but I like the pick..
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by oldwiseone:

Mirage has 5.5 but I like the pick..

I have a local book, not very happy with the bad line but what can I do. Really don't think I'll need that extra point.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by 120hoffman:


I have a local book, not very happy with the bad line but what can I do. Really don't think I'll need that extra point.

It just dropped to 3.5 at my book.

 
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Posted: #7
I see SMU forcing at least 3 turnovers tonight. They are going to get on these quarterbacks early and often.
 
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Posted: #8
How many are on the Over?
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by VegasCorry:

How many are on the Over?

The only thing that kept me off the over was the lack of productivity I expect from the TT quarterbacks. 
 
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Posted: #10
bro i got SMU +6.5 why did you wait until it fell to 4?


 
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Posted: #11
SMU was the play BEFORE the qb info came out, just based on preseason study of both squads.

just my opinion and why i grabbed it at 6.5 a few days ago.

GL 
 
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Posted: #12
And now for the other side. QB could be an issue. However, the projected starter had not won the position outright so that says that the freshmen are apparently as good as the starter.

Tech returns almost their entire defense. Perhaps that does not impress but it was good enough to hold off West Virginia and SMU is not West Virginia. Defense will probably be improved this year and the coaching staff seems very high on it.

Tech is going to be flying high with the debut of their new King and a sold out SMU stadium packed full of Raider fans.

SMU has nothing of any particular note coming back other than a mediocre QB.

Tech 31 SMU 20
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

bro i got SMU +6.5 why did you wait until it fell to 4?



Glad you got it at 6.5. I got a late start on my handicapping this week and I clearly paid the price by losing 2.5 points and problem another 25% on my money line bet. 
 
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Posted: #14
even before brewer got hurt i thought this was a bad spot for them.  laying pts in an opening road night game with a new coach and new qb not to mention 6 overall new starters on D.

smu nothing special but same HC and QB as LY so much more continuity.
 
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Posted: #15
Continuity of mediocrity is nothing to hang your hat on. I think it takes a QB meltdown or possibly Tech's young coaching staff being completely outcoached for them to lose. But they've got to play the game.
 
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Posted: #16
Hypo you are right but the value is clearly with the home team at the 6.5 i got it at.  june jones seasoned HC and known entity vs a brand new HC in kliff kingsbury. throw in the qb issues at tech and you have the recipe for an outright hm dog win


 
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Posted: #17
has anyone notice that smu has NEVER beat tech? this is the same coach that gave "johnny football" the plays that got him that trophy last season. its like people were saying that tulsa was going to be bowling green.. i am going to keep an eye on this spread and see who is right and wrong. i believe tech will cover. 
 
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Posted: #18
SportsGuru you did not hear anyone of substance say that Tulsa would beat BGU.  I said the last 6 weeks when the line came out at Tulsa -3.5 that BGU was the play.  it's in my thread history.  my BGU play was limited to $100 so i did not post it in my plays.  I bet $1800 per game to win $1636.

tulsa replaced 12 starters (8 on D) going against a good defensive team at home.

this gm has nothing to do with last night.

SMU the more experienced team, proven coach, at home, natl TV, at night,

SU winner is SMU 
 
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Posted: #19
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #20

The pro SMU sentiment on the forum is not the sentiment of the public at large.  Currently, over 72% of the parlay / exotic action ( ie sucker action) is on Texas Tech as well 53% of the pointspread bettors even at this late date.  In other words, it appears that the squares like Tech.

The line move on SMU is being driven by either smart money or a reaction to the original starting QB, Brewer, not playing in this game.  I think it is the former because this move started before the Brewer injury was announced.

So we have what appears to be the public on TTU and the sharps on SMU.  This is a reverse line move and will hit about 55% of the time.  Not a sure thing by any means but worthy of a 1 unit play.  At +6 or +6.5, this is a 2 unit play but those number are long gone.

 
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Posted: #21
combato the line move is not due to Brewer not starting because he has been questionable for a few weeks and most pros and semipros knew brewer would most likely either not play or not be effective.

the thought was the David Webb the 6'4" RS frosh would play but now he's not going to start either. Webb (fairly highly touted out of HS) was beaten out by frosh walkon Baker Mayfield.

i posted on mon, aug 26 that smu +6.5 was available.  some people wanted to wait until it got to +7 but my gut told me it will not get there, and it did not


 
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Posted: #22
once the news came that the walkon Mayfield would start, the line immediately dropped to 4.  Kingsbury and the tech camp have been tightlipped, the conventional thought is that Webb looked really really poor in practice, not necessarily that Mayfield looked all that sharp.


 
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Posted: #23
well like i said i am going to sit back and watch tech dust them off, the same as they have always done. 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

bro i got SMU +6.5 why did you wait until it fell to 4?


I am taking both. SMU + 3.5
                                                   Texas Tech for the over 64.5
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by gridironguy:

bro i got SMU +6.5 why did you wait until it fell to 4?


Well congrats!

 

Why would you post that? It doesnt help at all. Some people only have locals and have to wait until gameday.

 

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