This matchup is a pretty good one, and the winner will be a front runner for the AAC (whatever the hell that is) title. Lets get to it.
First, a few thoughts on UCF:
1) Tough early season schedule. vs Penn State in Dublin, and @ Missouri. UCF started the wrong QB in Dublin or else they win that thing going away; Looks like Missouri is panning out to be a formidable opponent.
2) More about the Mizzou game. 38-10 final. UCF was down 14-10 late in the 3rd......freak interception off of a D-lineman's head swung the entire game. Short field, TD Mizzou. There was also a garbage fumble return for a td with under a minute left in the 4th. That game was much closer than the final.
3) I am not much for power ratings, but Sagarin and current Philsteele #'s have UCF -4ish...factor in the 3.5 or so pt adjustment for the home team, then you have a pk type of situation.
4) UCF has some talent on Offense...the numbers are not good thus far, but they will improve. WR Worten, RB Stanback are potential NFL guys...QB Holman has a plus arm and has shown to be accurate in tough environments.
A few for Houston:
1) Home field advantage is a bit in question here.......UH is 10-6 SU under HC Levine. Not a great mark....the only loss as a heavy dog was to BYU last season, so those losses have been as either a fave or a slight dog. Capacity is listed at 40,000....UH has been drawing about half of that; last week vs UNLV there was 23000 fans there. We will see if it is packed tomorrow. As of now there are still tickets available on the website.
2) UH defense is ranked 34th nationally in total yds allowed. The rushing D stats are skewed from the Grambling game, where Grambling ran the ball 39times for 64yds.
3) UH offense is averaging about 220 yds per game through the air...gone are the days of Case Keenum, and Sumlin's offense. Avg on the ground is 172, so balance looks to be the goal.
4) QB John O'korn has been inconsistent this season, hitting 52% of his passes, with a 6/6 ratio. Ironically, his best game was in his toughest spot @ BYU.
Bottom line:
Add it all up.....UCF has some talent, a bit younger than Houston's, and is not on a particularly tough road trip in comparison to Ireland or Mizzou. I would look for UCF to shut down the Houston running game completely. O'Korn will have to carry the load for UH, and especially in the redzone, and that is where the interceptions come into play. UCF is a road tested 0-2, in 2 tougher spots. UH laid an egg in the opener vs UTSA and was controlled @ BYU.
Not much chance of anyone looking ahead to next week.....this is a conference game between 2 of the contenders in AAC. Defense is key, and I am not buying Houston's. This one could go down to the wire, but I look for UCF to control things for a majority of the evening.
Pick: UCF +3.5. UCF ML (+150)
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