Watching so many games online and on tv and the eye test says we should watch out for this trend, especially with the new communication to QB and moving clock..... less adjustments to defensive alignments and I am seeing a lot of swarm plays from the defense
Is UNDER going to be a trend to watch out for when power schools play each other on totals of 49 or higher?
Not All Results (gathered after 9pm):
Power 4 (BIG10,SEC,BIG12,ACC) head to head >> = 4- 3 UNDER
Going to pay attention to this for one more week........ trying to see if rule changes and clock having an effect and I can yes so far based on the Power schools which tend to use the sidelines late into the play clock mostly
Will provide the final results for the top 2 Categories in the list later or tomorrow
Watching so many games online and on tv and the eye test says we should watch out for this trend, especially with the new communication to QB and moving clock..... less adjustments to defensive alignments and I am seeing a lot of swarm plays from the defense
Is UNDER going to be a trend to watch out for when power schools play each other on totals of 49 or higher?
Not All Results (gathered after 9pm):
Power 4 (BIG10,SEC,BIG12,ACC) head to head >> = 4- 3 UNDER
Going to pay attention to this for one more week........ trying to see if rule changes and clock having an effect and I can yes so far based on the Power schools which tend to use the sidelines late into the play clock mostly
Will provide the final results for the top 2 Categories in the list later or tomorrow
About 6 games to report after midnight as I post this but you can see a potential trend.....will have to include next week and likely Week 3 to see if its significant
About 6 games to report after midnight as I post this but you can see a potential trend.....will have to include next week and likely Week 3 to see if its significant
I couldn't play them all but the unders in week 1 are rock solid
I use a database that I can search these situations that finds successful ROI's for a lot of past history.
Unfortunately for me this week I found an equal amount of over this week. It happens
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
changing directions :
week = 1 and D and PRSW<6 and o:PRSW<9 and season>2012 and line<15 and division = FBS
week 1 dogs since 2012 that did not win 6 games last season playing a favorite that did not win 9 games last season when the dog is not getting as many as 15 points. The game doesn't include any non FBS team.
2024 record 6-1 ATS
unders rule.
2024 record 4 overs 3 unders.
9 winners out of 14 qualified plays.
Vanderbilt was my biggest of the day because of the research I did. Vandy was close at covering home games last season. Vandy's QB room was one of the worst last season. The addition of Pavia made me think they could score. When A dog scores it significantly increase the ROI %
When A dog runs or can have a balance on offense they ROI is very strong. A good running game is huge because they can move the ball score and keep the defense fresh. I am sure you know that but its something you can search on a weekly basis.
Dr. Strangelove is one of the best.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
I couldn't play them all but the unders in week 1 are rock solid
I use a database that I can search these situations that finds successful ROI's for a lot of past history.
Unfortunately for me this week I found an equal amount of over this week. It happens
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
changing directions :
week = 1 and D and PRSW<6 and o:PRSW<9 and season>2012 and line<15 and division = FBS
week 1 dogs since 2012 that did not win 6 games last season playing a favorite that did not win 9 games last season when the dog is not getting as many as 15 points. The game doesn't include any non FBS team.
2024 record 6-1 ATS
unders rule.
2024 record 4 overs 3 unders.
9 winners out of 14 qualified plays.
Vanderbilt was my biggest of the day because of the research I did. Vandy was close at covering home games last season. Vandy's QB room was one of the worst last season. The addition of Pavia made me think they could score. When A dog scores it significantly increase the ROI %
When A dog runs or can have a balance on offense they ROI is very strong. A good running game is huge because they can move the ball score and keep the defense fresh. I am sure you know that but its something you can search on a weekly basis.
There was a time I hung onto long term trends and just relied on them but I found they muddled my selection decisions in a way I didn't look at the now (team setup + ratings head to head) and then missed out on a good situation. I think a balance of what you look for plus the style of recency/ratings could be deadly
I am definitely looking for overinflated totals or a week where Vegas adjusts too much. I do recall an old capper saying week 2 tends to produce even more lower scores because teams now have film and tendences .....BUT....I believe from watching quite a few games, the Power teams were holding back and letting line play dictate their success. Passing was not too direct downfield was also a trend... things will open up once they get to Conf games I suspect or their last non-Conf matchup which is usually the 3rd week
There was a time I hung onto long term trends and just relied on them but I found they muddled my selection decisions in a way I didn't look at the now (team setup + ratings head to head) and then missed out on a good situation. I think a balance of what you look for plus the style of recency/ratings could be deadly
I am definitely looking for overinflated totals or a week where Vegas adjusts too much. I do recall an old capper saying week 2 tends to produce even more lower scores because teams now have film and tendences .....BUT....I believe from watching quite a few games, the Power teams were holding back and letting line play dictate their success. Passing was not too direct downfield was also a trend... things will open up once they get to Conf games I suspect or their last non-Conf matchup which is usually the 3rd week
Any site or app that shows the % of money coming in on O/U….spread….etc
Looked in the ACTION app but not finding it. Trying to find a site but not having luck.
Any site or app that shows the % of money coming in on O/U….spread….etc
Looked in the ACTION app but not finding it. Trying to find a site but not having luck.
With LSU bad D last season its at leat a consideration USC scores 20+
the other thing i am considering is in game betting if the line is in a decent range. The more USC scores the higher the ROI on the original line. If its tied 20 all or something similar is a play on USC
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
With LSU bad D last season its at leat a consideration USC scores 20+
the other thing i am considering is in game betting if the line is in a decent range. The more USC scores the higher the ROI on the original line. If its tied 20 all or something similar is a play on USC
Any site or app that shows the % of money coming in on O/U….spread….etc Looked in the ACTION app but not finding it. Trying to find a site but not having luck.
That would be good
Haven't come across one but fortunately, I have enough time to watch total changes and it sometimes forces me to look for news for changes
Any site or app that shows the % of money coming in on O/U….spread….etc Looked in the ACTION app but not finding it. Trying to find a site but not having luck.
That would be good
Haven't come across one but fortunately, I have enough time to watch total changes and it sometimes forces me to look for news for changes
all games in the database. the dogs that score 20+ points all dogs against a ranked opponent D and points>19 and o:rank<=25 With LSU bad D last season its at leat a consideration USC scores 20+ the other thing i am considering is in game betting if the line is in a decent range. The more USC scores the higher the ROI on the original line. If its tied 20 all or something similar is a play on USC
Both teams focused on Defense in the portal almost exclusively and preseason rankings of their units were Top 30 with one rating having them both in the Top 20
My notes on USC are more detailed....says they brought an excellent DC and 2 of the top UCLA secondary in transfer which was a strong unit last couple of years if you remember
Just keep that in mind when assessing the Total. I frankly only see one team scoring over 30 in this one and the other likely not....or at worse, 34-27 or 33 - 30
Usually, when you see improved D's on both sides of the ball, TDs turn into FGs so I work out more scenario scores with this in mind....instead of 4-5 TDs each + 1-2 FGs in the old way.....
... now you assign 3-4 + 2-3 FGs for one side and maybe 3 Tds + 1-2 FGs for the other in the new team setups of better D and slightly less Offensive success
That scenario above leads to the 34 - 27 score (in the previous mindset/before changes, the final game total is over 70)
I don't see these teams scoring TDs at will on each other. What did week 1 viewing of top teams show me this weekend? These teams that are concerned about making the Top 12 playoff were NOT gunslinging against another strong opponent ...throwing the ball down the middle or deep down the sidelines. Coaches were managing the games ....except when Clemson fell behind by more than 2 scores and then Dabo let Cade go gunslinger and that did not work out well at all
all games in the database. the dogs that score 20+ points all dogs against a ranked opponent D and points>19 and o:rank<=25 With LSU bad D last season its at leat a consideration USC scores 20+ the other thing i am considering is in game betting if the line is in a decent range. The more USC scores the higher the ROI on the original line. If its tied 20 all or something similar is a play on USC
Both teams focused on Defense in the portal almost exclusively and preseason rankings of their units were Top 30 with one rating having them both in the Top 20
My notes on USC are more detailed....says they brought an excellent DC and 2 of the top UCLA secondary in transfer which was a strong unit last couple of years if you remember
Just keep that in mind when assessing the Total. I frankly only see one team scoring over 30 in this one and the other likely not....or at worse, 34-27 or 33 - 30
Usually, when you see improved D's on both sides of the ball, TDs turn into FGs so I work out more scenario scores with this in mind....instead of 4-5 TDs each + 1-2 FGs in the old way.....
... now you assign 3-4 + 2-3 FGs for one side and maybe 3 Tds + 1-2 FGs for the other in the new team setups of better D and slightly less Offensive success
That scenario above leads to the 34 - 27 score (in the previous mindset/before changes, the final game total is over 70)
I don't see these teams scoring TDs at will on each other. What did week 1 viewing of top teams show me this weekend? These teams that are concerned about making the Top 12 playoff were NOT gunslinging against another strong opponent ...throwing the ball down the middle or deep down the sidelines. Coaches were managing the games ....except when Clemson fell behind by more than 2 scores and then Dabo let Cade go gunslinger and that did not work out well at all
@Last2thirst Action app offers this. Maybe only under the paid version. But I’m looking at it. They have O/U at 64(Bovada line) 54% of the bets are on the over for a total of 77% of the $
See if I can see any correlations. I am a data junkie so this is do-able in the afternoon. I really have to get moving on completing my NFL but can finish that before Thurs
@Last2thirst Action app offers this. Maybe only under the paid version. But I’m looking at it. They have O/U at 64(Bovada line) 54% of the bets are on the over for a total of 77% of the $
See if I can see any correlations. I am a data junkie so this is do-able in the afternoon. I really have to get moving on completing my NFL but can finish that before Thurs
@spottie2935 AT EV $ The teaser screamed out at me USC +10 + UN 72 GL BUD
I'm liking USC side here before points @ +4 but that teaser is juicy and my BET365 lets me have 7 pts
USC starts the year well most years and Lincoln is known for his prep ....sprinkle in an excellent DC with a great transfer portal for what they need
I have read clippings where Kelly is preaching keep things safe so games stay close against good programs and then they can open it up ....
In addition, I am thinking USC will want to also with their defense, keep things in front of them and play a lot of zone in the beginning to see what LSU does
@spottie2935 AT EV $ The teaser screamed out at me USC +10 + UN 72 GL BUD
I'm liking USC side here before points @ +4 but that teaser is juicy and my BET365 lets me have 7 pts
USC starts the year well most years and Lincoln is known for his prep ....sprinkle in an excellent DC with a great transfer portal for what they need
I have read clippings where Kelly is preaching keep things safe so games stay close against good programs and then they can open it up ....
In addition, I am thinking USC will want to also with their defense, keep things in front of them and play a lot of zone in the beginning to see what LSU does
@spottie2935 USC schedule is brutal not sure they will get ov 7.5 wins? Your thoughts on this my friend https://usctrojans.com/sports/football/schedule/2024 sorry Thirst for hogging your thread
@spottie2935 USC schedule is brutal not sure they will get ov 7.5 wins? Your thoughts on this my friend https://usctrojans.com/sports/football/schedule/2024 sorry Thirst for hogging your thread
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.