Unders Winning Pattern

Could be early to say, but with covid-19 limiting play last year, it seems the bad teams have gotton worse. All the 15 point favorites seem to be beating their spreads but all hit the unders. Consider-

UCLA game

UTEP game

UAB game

. These week 0 and early week 1 games are showing a pattern. It could be reversed or it could continue. But my money is on the pattern continuing. The 15 point favorites with Unders greater than 56 points (average football game is 55 points) have all got my bet to hit the under. 

Coastal car. , NC St, and Tenn fit the criteria...

@Martyw25

 I forgot one other criteria. Avoid top 15 teams. There are actually about 20 matchups that fit the criteria. I did a few round robbins with my favorite 15. You never know.

I was just looking at Thur matchups, sure there are a ton on the weekend 

I've already bet the Tenn under. 61 points is a big number and I think UT would have to do the large majority of the scoring with an all new coaching staff and pretty horrific offseason, regardless of how bad BGSU is.

good analysis

@PeAceMaKer7690

 What are the teams that fit the criteria for Saturday ? 

@MaticKeys

 Buffalo, NC State, New Mexico, Tennessee, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Kentucky, Michigan, Oregon, Auburn, Washington State, Western Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Missouri, Washington State

If 9/15 can hit, several of my parlays should be good. 

How many did you round robin, this angle has me curious, 15 team rr?

any unders today? 

Good analysis. Bad teams are worrying about shit other than football. Once the fourth quarter hits and the game is decided, they're not getting back door covers as often, especially when the decidedly good team has potential NFL talent on defense looking to add to their resume. 

Motivation in sports betting is huge, and with COVID still around, the worse teams have less of it.

@PeAceMaKer7690

 only Buffalo busted the unders so far. Fingers crossed gents. Need some good defense, bad weather, and bad offense tomorow. Let's keep those scores down and make some money.

@Martyw25

 I tried a parlay with my favorite 5, 6, 8, and 9 teams. I did round robins at 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, where 2 can loose in each situation. Put in about $150 total. Still got a few with 4 or 5 wins and 0 losses so for. Made it through Thrs and Fri. One more day! I'll keep you updated. 

My only bet that won were two 7 game parlays. together they pay $750. I risked $150 on all these bets. Lots of the parlays were 9/14 correct, so I probably could of had a way more profitable betting strategy. 

@PeAceMaKer7690

 good stuff bro.

This is one of the common mistakes bettors make. Once you get this into the head, even after the criteria doesn't work, you will keep going at because this first week will be in your subconscious and control your decisions. Use a dynamic handicapper model instead using trends and blind system. These trends will eventually regress to norm towards 50% and most who get on the boat will end up losing money. Parlays are also long term losing propositions. Break down the games, find some value odds and play them with a conservative money management strategy that is explained here. Even if your bankroll is small you can still come out on top and eventually build your way up if you are patience and disciplined. Winning slowly by grinding it out is much better than having to reload every week or every other week. In that mm strategy 3% is the max you will risk and it may seem annoying if your bankroll is like $500 but if you are patient over time it will be worth while. Take a look at this spreadsheet over 3 years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CSvrT3osJos4P-Fni102v5fvZqaqm8Q/edit#gid=1712378585 that tracks over 2000 bets to see how being patience and staying disciplined pays off.

@PeAceMaKer7690

 I went 7-4 on a round robin for a decent profit. Would have been much better if it were not for a couple late, unnecessary touchdowns for force the over. A system worth monitoring. 

@VeryBlueJay

 Well said. I did the math and am gonna try doing 80% 1-1 bets, 15% 1-3 bets, and 5% 1-100 bets. I do this for the fun and as a way to save money (like a savings plan). Not really a way to profit, although it would be nice. I never do unders/overs, just tried for week 1. I agree trend won't continue and this does not apply for the future. It is possible average scores are down a point or two this year versus others, but for me that isn't something I would try to bet. It was a fun strategy this week to bet unders, paid my losses all back, but as you said, not something that is a whole-season strategy.