Utah @Arizona

Winning on the road in the Pac12 is a bear.....Utah isn't equipped to do it in Arizona.

Arizona should bring some momentum in after a good showing at USC...Arizona TB Carey is a big leaguer for sure, and QB Denker actually changed my opinion of him in the second half of the SC game.  This could be a roll-em-up situation, as I expect the Ute defense to show some fatigue after back to back good efforts vs UCLA and Stanford.

A few points:

1) Time for Utah to go on the road...the BYU game is about a 40 mile trip...this one will be a bit further.  Utah is 3-6 straight up on the road since joining the PAC.  1 of the wins was @Zona in 2011 under an interim HC...the other was over WSU in @2011 in OT, Wulff's second to last game as HC of WSU.  Last year the lone win came @ Colorado on the last weekend of the season, as 23 pt favs.    See the pattern?  Those wins were late in the season vs lame duck coaches and teams that had mailed it in. Zona under Richrod is still alive, rebuilding, and looking for a bowl.

2) Utah QB Travis Wilson has a 13td/10pick ratio.  All 10 picks were thrown at home, in conference play.  1 vs Stanford, 3 vs Oregon State, 6 vs UCLA......yes 6 in one game.  Now, not all of those are on him...but the bottom line is, he forces the ball across the middle at least 3-5 times per game. Arizona pass D is ranked 37th.....I am not buying that one completely, because the UW game was played in a rainstorm..but they got stiff vs SC in the 2nd half, and held them to under 300 and 15-30 overall.  Respectable numbers on the road, and in this one they are at home.  4 upper classmen starting in the defensive backfield for AZ.

3) Utah D total yds allowed vs: Utah St-487, Oregon St 491, @BYU 443, UCLA 404, Stanford 389.  The Stanford game was the best showing,  the UCLA game was good, but the weather helped the Utes out a lot vs UCLA.  The majority of yards given are vs the pass......and Arizona will pass off of that option attack all day. Stanford was ultra conservative until the 4th quarter....but Utah had the answer on the goaline (still scratching my head on Shaw's playcalling).

Bottom line is this: it is time for Utah to be exposed on the road in the PAC. I like Arizona to move the ball at will vs the Utes and Utah QB Wilson to turn it over twice.   Looks to me like  31-17 Arizona.

Arizona -3, bought the hook...No hanging chads for me. 

gobeavs87:

One of my buddies older brother is an Oregon St alum...played there in the late 80's.  They will be at the OSU/ Cal game tomorrow.

So if your Beavs is for Oregon St, then rock on.

Tico:

Thanks for the luck....I will take all I can get.

For what it is worth I have a few leans that run with your picks, but I am not playing them as of yet....Oregon st -10 and Temple +1.

What did your spreadsheet think about Navy @ Toledo?  Just curious...there may be an edge there.

Best of luck tomorrow.

Cash, money, hoes.

Everything went wrong here....and still got the big run at the end to cover by 2 scores.

The offensive pass interference call was a joke.........that was the easy cover. Called back.

Utah is game.....but not enough.

Thanks...at this point in the season, it is important to start distancing ourselves from the big TV games. 

Today I played TAMU 1st half, SMU +3.5, Navy +9, Ohio St 2nd half, Oregon St -10, and Arizona -3 (hook), Houston 2nd half.

On the downside I played Clemmy moneyline and Junior Dos Santos over Cain Velasquez, Fresno 2nd Half, Oregon 2nd half.

Best bet of the day was a 2 team 6 pt teaser, with Navy @15.5 and SMU +9.5.

The late second halfs were ill advised, but both ot those losses fall into the backdoor column. Still though, even if it is 50cents, I cannot stand losing.