Wake Forest at North Carolina discussion

Thoughts on this game fellas?

Wake 8-0 ranked in top 10 at pre ranked top 10 but disappointing North Carolina.

Wake obviously is a huge backed public dog here in this spot.

Is this a case where the sharps lose like usual by taking UNC?  I myself love UNC in this game bc of the 8-0 factor of Wake and the fact most teams have a slip up and the fact UNC is favored being 4-4 and not ranked by Vegas makes me think they are the right side with Wake getting over 70% of the action.

Is this a typical sharp disgrace like so many games?  Where the bettor who simply looks at records just gets Wake at +2.5 and they dominate?

Curious of your thoughts on this game.

My theory is Wake is 8-0 but UNC will step up in this game on there home field. 

Best thing I can compare it to is in NFL where Arizona was +3 at the Browns and everyone was trying to predict the game Zona lost against the pre season hyped Browns and the bet was over in the first quarter as the Browns were exposed. 

It'll be a shoot out. They combined for 112 pts last season with no OT. It was pretty much every time you looked up someone had a long TD reception or run. Wake was up 21 pts in the 3rd and blew it. I'm waiting to see what the team totals will be. I'm leaning toward taking an early 2nd half total bet if it's lower than the first half, which it normally is. We'll see. May also lean toward whichever team total is lower.

The avg total for the game is 75. That means they are expecting at least 3 21 pt quarters then a slow 14 point quarter for the game. It's doable but I'm not sure about all that. Wake basically plays horrible D and NC ain't too much better. But UNC is struggling this year and the book has the trap line up. It hasn't moved locally and I know people are throwing money at this game already.

I like the over. There have been at least 4 O/U posted at 70+ this year as I remember and the total stayed under. I just can’t see much defense here unless weather becomes a deciding factor. 

This is actually my favorite game this week. I think it’s gonna be a tough battle, but with North Carolina St. comming up for Wake they might not be entirely focused on the 4-4 Tar Heels. NC has been up and down all year, but I see them as a pretty even team at home against wake. This game could really go either way, but I see the Tar Heels winning this game. 
-Just my two cents which aren’t worth even that. 

@sSleepy

 I’m with u bro it’s my favorite play of the year

Usually when it’s like that tho will be 28-3 wake in the second quarter which is my concern. 

bet sharp and constantly lose 

Here is my worry to and the line hasnt moved. Which is would move pass 3 lol.  My problem is UNC might now score on 1 drive and that is all Wake need because Wake will score every time they have the ball. UNC is just trash on def. Not saying Wake is much better.  At first glance UNC was the bet now Im second guess myself .... so for that LAY THE LUMBER ON PURDUE .... WHO IS GOING TO SMOKE MICHIGAN ST!! +3 AND ML!!

@IncognitoZR

 "Wake basically plays horrible D and NC ain't too much better."

I'm pretty tired of this narrative. And to say UNC is better on D is patently false.

Scoring Defense: Wake 23.8 ppg vs UNC 30.8 ppg

Team Sacks: Wake is T14th in the country and sacks the QB 3 times per game vs UNC T85th with 1.88 (this will come into play big time on Saturday, as Wake is T30th in the country allowing 1.5 sacks per game vs UNC 126th! (5th lowest in the country) allowing 3.88 sacks per game).

Red Zone Defense: Wake is T18th, opponents are 18-24 (15 TDs, 3 FGs) for 75%. UNC T60th, opponents are 28-34 (18 TDs, 10 FGs) at 82.4%.

Penalties Per Game (not exclusively a defensive stat, but it plays into it): Wake T29th in the country averaging 5.12 penalties/game for 46.12 yds vs UNC T103rd with 7.25 penalties/game for 68.5 yards

Turnover Margin: Wake is 4th in the country, having forced 17 and lost 7 (+10) vs UNC 69th (nice) in the country, having forced 11 and lost 11

Third Down Conversion defense is relatively similar and neither is very good (Wake 85th vs UNC 91st), but Fourth Down Conversion defense is a different story, with Wake T18th vs UNC T84th.

Now we come to the stat where I think most people are getting the impression that Wake is an "atrocious defense" (to put it in the words of Joey Galloway on the CFP Rankings show). Wake is 99th in the country in Total Defense, giving up 421.5 yds/game vs UNC 76th giving up 396.6 yds/game. Ok, so be it. They give up a lot of yards, but that is a product of a few things: 1) They play at such a fast pace on offense that the defense is on the field a ton, and will give up more yards. 2) They play something close to a bend but don't break defense, forcing the other team to rack up yards as they march down the field, only to bow up in the Red Zone (again T18th in Red Zone Defense) and make it tough to score.

Continued:

@wfufanatic

A great example: Against UVA Wake gave up 506 yards, yet held the #4 scoring offense in the country to only 17 points, with Wake winning 37-17 (UVA's lowest output of the season, UVA averages 44 ppg). This was mostly a result of Wake jumping out to a huge lead and just running the ball in the 4th Q while UVA was still airing it out (funnily enough, UVA didn't score a single point in the 4th Q despite 4 possessions and racking up 178 yards, most of which came on the final 93 yard drive when the game had been over for quite some time). The same UVA team put up 577 yards and 39 points against UNC (granted, UNC won 59-39).

Another example, as these are the only two common opponents Wake and UNC have played: Both Wake and UNC played FSU at home. Wake held FSU to 317 yards and 14 pts (FSU's lowest scoring output of the season) in a 35-14 win (It wasn't even that close, it was 35-14 halfway through the 3rd Q and Wake called off the dogs). UNC allowed 383 yards and 35 pts in a 35-25 loss. Again, we have a case where UNC allowed around 60-70 more yards of offense, yet significantly more points. Wake steps up when it counts.

Those pointing to Wake giving up 56 pts to Army have to look at the circumstances of that game: Wake put up 70 points in 17:17 time of possession, an absurd pace. That means the defense was on the field for 42:43 against the triple option, notoriously designed to wear a defense down, which is exactly what happened. Does anyone else Wake will play run the triple option? Negative.

And yeah, Wake hung 70 on a team that allows 20.66 ppg in their other games this year. Shall we go down the road of comparing these offenses? Because UNC is good on O (12th Total Offense, 22nd Scoring Offense, 7th Third Down Conversion PCT, 12th Passing Yards per Completion) but Wake is better in every category (9th Total Offense, 6th Scoring Offense, 5th Third Down Conversion PCT, 8th Passing Yards per Completion). Wake is also the only team in CFB to have scored 35+ in every game this year. So wtf is UNC favored? Y'all tell me.

For me that is overanalyzing. I go with what I see. You still came to the same conclusion as me. Funny how that works.

Either way good luck on your bet.

@sSleepy

 You clearly don't know much about football in the state of NC, a former residence of mine for years. Believe me, Wake is not looking past Carolina and ahead to the Pack. That being said, UNC will win this game, yes, Wake is the better team but this is all or nothing for UNC in a season with disappointment Carolina will put their best foot forward, play their best game of the year and emerge victorious, Mack will have them ready. Stats work on paper, believe me I look at them too, but the game is played on the field. Look for Sam Howell to be the best "Sam" on the field Saturday in Chapel Hill, it'll be fully charged there rest assured. Best of luck

@mrusso

Idk, it's a noon game on homecoming for a 4-4 UNC team. The students will probably be hungover and stumble in at halftime lol, and the other fans are probably ready to move on to basketball.  

I say that mostly in jest, I'm sure it will be a good atmosphere, as it looks to be close to a sell out. I know Wake's ticket allotment is sold out and I've seen a lot of fans saying they are buying tickets off secondary sites. I expect Wake to have a good showing. Howell's running ability worries me, but Hartman is going to absolutely light up that UNC defense. 

you are kidding me right. you realize, this contest is a non-acc sanctioned game...yes, this is considered a NON conference game. these two schools were tired of not playing each other enough, so they superceded the ACC and scheduled home and home games out of conference...this is one of those games. and you are suggesting that wake might not be entirely focused on UNC? How do you come up with that?

@wfufanatic

 No doubt, break out your calculator, I think it'll take 40 to win and both teams are quite capable of that. I've watched a ton of ACC football over the years and my gut is telling me Carolina wins. "My gut feeling" is not a great selling point but not trying to sell either, we all have our own reasons for picking one team or another. It will be a very competitive game and could easily come down to who has the last possession. Pressure is ALL on Wake Forest, it's tough to go undefeated in any conference. Heels find a way to win. 

@mrusso

 I understand, and a UNC victory wouldn't surprise me. But, aside from the numbers that I think give an edge to Wake, I think Wake will be completely fired up for this game. They want to avenge the 21 point blown lead there last year. You said Mack will have UNC ready, well Clawson will have Wake ready, and he's already talked on his coaches show about the potshots the ESPN talking  heads are taking at Wake's D. That's bulletin board material, as if they didn't have enough of a reason already to be completely locked in. This is also smack in the middle of Wake making a run at the Big 4 title (Duke last week, UNC this week, NCST next week), so to the poster who earlier said Wake might be looking past this game... not a chance. This is the oldest rivalry in FBS Football (started in 1888), and these teams do not like each other. I also think Wake could be the fresher team. The 48-7 W vs Duke last week took little effort, whereas UNC must be gassed after almost pulling one out in South Bend.

MGM has a "same game parlay" with UNC ML + both teams score 20+ points at -105 ... might be good way to get UNC at a better price than the -135 that's out there 

@steponaduck

 I'm aware of that, at last check they are both in the same conference and as I stated it's difficult to go undefeated in any conference. I mentioned that specifically because the bulk of the games are conference games and the ACC is not a good conference this year and likely won't get a team in the playoffs, you can bank on that. And undefeated includes "ALL" games.

Wish I could get that haha. Sounds good.

BTW, playing a team in your conference and it not being considered a "conference game" is simply ludicrous to me.

@mrusso

interesting. I have never heard someone talk about going undefeated in conference and meaning that to be 12-0...undefeated in conference play means undefeated in conference play...9-0, 8-0, 7-0...not regarding the out of league schedule. seems to me that possibly you, and everyone else here didnt realize that this bout was classified as a non-conference game...and thats okay. my original argument was to the person in post #4, who suggested that wake forest might be looking past UNC...clearly not the case. 

good luck with your plays this week. 

@mrusso

 I saw it happen in college hoops one time...Marist and Niagara played in early November in a "non-MAAC Bout"

@mrusso

It's the stupidity of the ACC for not putting Wake, UNC, State and Duke in the same division. Wake and UNC would play each other about twice every 10 years were it not for scheduling these non-con games, so kudos to them for keeping the rivalry alive. The ACC really needs to reorganize the divisions. They set it up like this so FSU and Miami would meet in the ACCCG game.... but that's never happened.

@steponaduck

 I was aware of it, thank you very much. You misunderstood when I mentioned conference it was simply referring to the weakness of the ACC, that it's difficult to go undefeated even when you're part of a weaker conference. Perhaps I didn't explain it well earlier

Great discussion thanks guys

yeah I read that also two teams in acc but not an acc game towards conference records wtf 

Do they do that on their app or only in person? Might have to send my brother on a 40 mile round trip since he is up in Henderson.