Washington / Texas

Looking forward to this matchup . Might be the best game of the season.

I will look to play on this game ( and also Bama / Mich. ). I think there will be

much less  Opt Out and Transfer Portal risk in either Playoff game than  all 

other Bowl games. We'll see how line movement creates opportunity.

Still early yet.

 Currently I have the Following positions :

Washington  NC  futures at + 2200 and + 2000  ( Bought in mid Sept. )

Misc. Bama  NC futures as well.

Go Huskies 

IMO , The best way to wager on these 2 playoff matchups is to take

advantage of ALL the Tools that Bookmakers give us , such as  Sides,

Totals , MLP's , UDMLP's ,Teasers and for the Playoffs , Futures and

Exactas. I will be using most of these in an effort to maximize my

chances to profit ,while attempting to minimize my pointspread risk

this Bowl season.Capping Playoff matchups can be challenging as

both sides on paper usually seem to be rather evenly matched.

This requires us to dig deeper, as Game Management and

sound decision making and discipline, will be critical to the outcome.

Merry Christmas  and Good Luck to All.

Happy holidays to you and your ohana bradda, stay blessed 

Mahalos , It's good to hear from you. It's been a long time.

Blessings and Merry Christmas to you and your ohana as well.

Washington's D is a problem...Weakest D by far amongst all 4 teams...They will need to win in a shoot out..Or be lucky like TCU was vs Michigan in the Semi's last season..

I agree , The Huskies allow a lot of yards to opponents , and  a shootout

is a possibility. TT's are something to look into in this game.

The key thing to look at is how the Huskies will fare against the

Texas D line. Lotta people think Texas can shut down  UW's

offense. That's the question in this one.

Something to think about :

Texas ranks 40th Nationally in sacking the QB , while Oregon ranks

13th Nationally in sacking the QB. In 2 games , Oregon was only

able to sack Penix 3 times , well below their average in that category,

Washington ranks 4th in the nation in sacks allowed. That tells me

that UW's O Line is pretty darn good. This game is all about the

O and D Line play. Let's see how they grade out.

Penix vs a very weak Texas pass defense is where this game is won or lost and I think the Huskies will move the ball easily. Texas will have to play terrific offense to outscore them

UW typically does not play an aggressive style of pass defense and

prefers to play coverage rather than rush the passer, which IMO

is the primary reason they allow as many points as they do.

That's why they failed to cover a lot of those double digit

pointspreads the books hung on them.

Should be a high scoring affair.

Who did OREGON play? NOBODY..other than the pac 12......They should have lost to Texas Tech 1st game of the season..They were down 10 mid 4th quarter... Texas Tech is a mid tier B12 team...

Texas should have no problem moving the ball on that weak Washington Defense...If u think Texas has a bad secondary..Washington is pretty bad

@jefff

 agreed - UW's Offense is going to be tough to stop with time to prepare against Sark AND getting a healthy McMillan back. Texas has not faced a WR group even close to the UW WR's.  Both teams struggled in places - UW gritted out some sloppy wins and Texas struggled against some medicore teams as well- TCU, Iowa State come to mind. 

The Pac 12 was definitely strong than the B12 this year and will gladly take the 4, 4.5 in this one - which should go to the final few possessions. 

should be a good one! 

Texas had their issues in a couple of games as well. Wish we could see

a Texas  / Oregon matchup , since that Texas Tech game keeps coming

up by those who can't seem to make a solid argument otherwise.

@WISEGUY36

 BOL to ya bud

Thanks bud , Blessings  and Merry Christmas 

GL 

Thanks and Merry Christmas    

Just starting to dig into the Bama / Michigan matchup. 

Wash pass defense isnt that good either.  But I think Penix > Ewers which gives Wash the advantage.  Texas has some talented WRs/TEs to help Ewers and Texas should be able to score too.  Would think this comes down to the last possession or two.  I like UDub +4.5.  Wouldnt be surprised if they win SU but wouldnt bet it since Texas seems to be peaking at just the right time

Washington 

FWIW , I brought this up for an example of what not to do in capping games.

A lot of novice bettors pick a team , then look for stats that support their

position. Cherry picking stats is not a sound capping strategy. In fact,

it is highly likely to lead to disaster. Very few data points can tell you

which team is likely to win ,and even fewer can tell you by how much.

Even those need to be supported by a knowledge and understanding

of the idiosyncrasies of the teams involved in the contest in order to

wisely choose a wager that offers the bettor a high win probability.

To put it simply , I look for reasons not to wager on a team and

then do the work required to form a likely outcome of the

matchup. It's a lot easier to be objective when you have not formed a

conclusion before you perform your due diligence.

Blessings and Good Luck to All.

Still waiting to see which way lines are likely to move on this game.

@WISEGUY36

 Hey Wise Guy,

You have read my posts about Washington all season. I have been on them all year!!

My justification is simple. Washington has the best unit on the field with their offense. DeBoer moves these guys around and throws different routes, formations at opponents. McMillan in the slot was HUGE creating space last game against Oregon. A lot of you “pundits” thought Oregon could win the Title prior to The Pac 12 Title. 

Washington has been running well too. The difference is this; NO defense in college football is built from the secondary. Washington has 3 NFL WR on their team! Odunze can get whatever he wants whenever he wants. Washington doesn’t play with tempo and can grind you down. Dillon Johnson has been a workhorse the last two months! Now you give Washington a dome on fast turf with their athletes. Washington can name the type of game they want to play. Huskies 34-31