Week 1

Looks like it's time for another season of "unlawful Internet gambling".

Lines caught me off guard and a couple early lines were missed: would've loved Maryland +10, and won't settle for +7'...I would've jumped on Tulsa -4' or -5 but won't give a TD.

FRIDAY
Arizona
@ Toledo +14' -110  1 UNIT

AZ has a huge talent advantage and will win by 7-10 in spite of themselves. They should give their usual (lackluster) effort in these out-of-conference road games. Toledo usually gives the BCS teams a good game in the Glass Bowl.

SATURDAY:

Washington +3' -110 1 UNIT
@ BYU

Better team getting points.

BYU has a lot of great athletic talent and the front 7 should be great...in the middle of the 2011 season. WA OL should keep Locker stress-free in this game. Locker might have so much time to throw, he might leave the game a little overrated.

BYU lost too many pieces on offense to win a shootout.

Arkansas State
@ Auburn -30

This game has been pretty well reviewed on the boards...

Texas -26 -110 1 UNIT
@ Rice

-26? I don't get it because TX generally hangs 50 on Rice. As far as I can tell, I missed the opener at -24. Doesn't matter...

Utah State
@ Oklahoma -28 -110  2 UNITS

After 2 years of being disciplined...there will be a couple plays each week that I feel deserve to be 2 unit plays. If it blows up in my face...back to flat betting the same amount on every play...

No craziness, though...2 units is the max...I'll save  the "large" bets for next year!


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Games I might still jump on:

S Miss +14
Minny +4 and OVER 53
WMU +21.
ILL +12
NW -3

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FCS vs FBS games I want to see the line...might be interested

Towson @ Indy
W Carolina @ NC State
Weber St @ BC
Wofford @ Ohio
Grambling St @ La Tech
UC Davis @ Cal
TX St @ Houston
Nicholls St @ San Diego St
S Carolina ST @ Ga Tech
Tenny tech @ Arkansas
Presbyterian @ Wake Forest

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Locker might have so much time to throw, he might leave the game a little overrated.

What I meant is...I'm not sold on Locker. Not sure he can complete 60% this year...I could be wrong...we'll see...

As a general rule, I will play, and do play, any D-1 team playing a SWAC team.  Grambling/LaTech might be a little different because it's a local rivalry that is seldom played.  I assume it's going to be in Shreveport.  Still, the talent gap between the SWAC and the rest of the football universe is enormous.

Was Maryland really +10 at one point. 

Missed it. , but I'll still take the TD.  Somebody will win by a fg.

 

GL this year, L.J.

GL this year Buddy

Are you a fan of Syracuse? If so, I like the direction there headed in....And think the will cover some spreads that most won't think they will.

That Texas line confused me as well.  I'm still like Texas.  GL

MaineRoad:
"Still, the talent gap between the SWAC and the rest of the football universe is enormous."
Got it, Maine, thanks. I was hoping for nuggets like that...I need to get up to speed on the FCS basics now that all the sportsbooks are offering these FCS/FBS games.  (I'm a dope for not picking up Steele's FCS guide.)
MD was actually 10'...had to be an opening # that lasted 4, maybe 5 seconds. A lot of quality cappers on MD...I'm going to be tempted...I know it...best of luck this year, Maine.

Boom_Boom;
"are you a fan of Syracuse"
Well...I guess I have to admit to being a fan of Doug Marrone's approach. When Greg Robinson was putting out a product which wasn't worth a damn, It didn't bother me at all. (There's a psychiatric term for that...emotionally divorcing yourself from something that used to be successful but now sucks...don't remember it...)

When Syr beat NW by a last second FG that was perfectly executed, I was watching and I cheered...a lot. However, I have no problem putting money on the "enemy." So I think I lose the "I'm a fan" debate on that technicality. I don't know...I can separate the cheering from the money. It's like the difference between business and pleasure.

(Damn...I can get long-winded sometimes...Short answer. I have trouble saying I'm a fan but I'd like to see Syracuse be successful... I don't know if that make sense.)

Good luck this year, Boom!

CalBear; Saw that you also like TX. Your leans were some of the same as mine, too. Hope we both have a solid first week! Good luck throughout the year.

I just noticed I forgot to add the "1 UNIT" to the Auburn pick.

Only Oklahoma is the 2 unit play.

the Dub

good to see you firing early buddy dammit that MD at double digits would have been nice...was not up that late to catch opening minutes

glad I'm not the only one on the mud hens on several others and UW makes sense...tough to wait now for four weeks for the games... BOL again this year LJ

Looks like it's time for another season of "unlawful Internet gambling".

Hey - who says it's unlawful?  It's perfectly legal in Texas.  Just pay your taxes. 

Good luck this season, bud!

FCS vs FBS games I want to see the line...might be interested

Towson @ Indy
W Carolina @ NC State
Weber St @ BC
Wofford @ Ohio
Grambling St @ La Tech
UC Davis @ Cal
TX St @ Houston
Nicholls St @ San Diego St
S Carolina ST @ Ga Tech
Tenny tech @ Arkansas
Presbyterian @ Wake Forest

I see that I'm actually against on one of those (surprisingly), but I'm going to be with you on four, including two that I really, REALLY like.  Can we agree not to make early bets that move the lines -- at a point-and-a-half a pop?  And remember that teasers don't move the lines. 

a healthy card per usual, best of luck this year

looking forward to checking out a few of those FCS games, at least if BM or greek posts them...usually not until Sat morning of the game, offhand NC St, LT and WF might get fair numbers, might start checking those out waiting for season

Bballday; Lets hope those Huskies cash in week one.

Nostra; Glad to see we were on the same wavelength w/ Toledo. If I remember correctly, the FCS games were posted at 10:30 AM EST...something to remember for week 2. I'm sure week 1 games will come out a few days early.
Best of luck getting your...what will it be now...15th straight winning season?

mws:
"Just pay your taxes."  Hah, you know it. Seriously, my tax lady is a beast when it comes to "dotting all the i's." She keeps me on the straight and narrow.
...and no spread-moving bets on FCS games...unless I can't help myself! Just a shot in the dark...I'm going to guess you like Weber St instead of the BC pick.

FadeOnly; Thanks, good luck to you too.

WahooS; Loving the Left Hook Cat avatar. Also looking forward to another year of your threads...last year they seemed to be the place to read some good discussions.

Really like Oklahoma, both for the whole year and especially in week one.

Good luck this year bud.

Good luck this year Cuse'.

LJ.  One of the best.

TRoe; Thanks. See you're also on Purdue, I might join you. I'm looking at that game from all the angles...maybe under for the game or under the ND team total...

kaplan; good luck to you too..

Skipster; Thanks, man. Good luck this year.

I did give Weber St a long look, but I think I like Wofford against Ohio.  I can't even remember my reasoning right now, but I do remember my conclusion.

Like the auburn, and Okla picks. Good luck this year.

Think Carter and the cuse defense will both be too physical for the zips. Any thought on your boys there?

 

good luck this season

mws:
"but I think I like Wofford against Ohio."
I can see that...they had a ton of injuries last year and return some good talent.

Wofford's gameplan will probably be to run that clock down as much as possible...not good for Ohio's chances to cover a big spread.

My reasons for Ohio:
-Their DL is the strength of the D and Wofford keeps it on the ground. (This would probably be key, how quick will they get Wofford off the field.)
-Wofford was ranked #112 in pass efficiency Defense last year and OU likes to throw it around. If OU can abuse that secondary and get an early lead, that will force The Terriers to pass.

So, OU's defense is suited to stop Wofford and OU should have success vs the weak pass D. Also, I trust Solich to have a scheme ready to defend the Wingbone...it was his comfort zone for a long time before he decided to give the forward pass a try.

I'm thinking the line is around 21. If it's closer to 30, I'll end up looking elsewhere.

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Cuba, thanks. Good luck with your plays this year.

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Clowncar;
Carter would rip thru them but I'm not even sure he'll be a student at Syr by the time week one rolls around.

Delone punched another Syracuse student in February and hasn't been allowed back in school since the incident. He had a court date scheduled for August 1st but his own lawyer asked for a delay. I'm beginning to think he drew the short straw for a lawyer; maybe one of those dudes who would get outsmarted by Matlock.

If Carter is allowed back in school, he'll then have to face the kangaroo court known as the Student Judicial Board. They will decide his fate: whether he plays, sits out 2010, or be suspended for a certain number of games. These bastards are tough; they've ended the careers of a couple basketball players in the past.

Also, there may be a hole at RB because Averin Collier is 50-50 for the 2010 season. It's possible academics will sideline him.

Syracuse media day is scheduled for this Monday. Maybe we'll know on Monday the status of Collier.

As far as Syr/Akron. I'm not convinced Akron is one of the 10 worst teams in football...they appear to be better on offense and defense this year. Of course, a coaching change stops any momentum they might have had. Syracuse wins of course...I say they cover the 8 or 9 (whatever the line is now) just because Akron is learning new schemes.

Huh. Ohio had the same situation w/ Cal Poly last year...Cal and Wofford are almost the same team. Cal Poly ran for 239 yds 4.4 ypc, only completed 1-11 passes for 12 yds and still only lost by 18. I see Phil Steele mentioned they lost a couple DL going into the 2009 season, so Ohio had that to deal with...

But still, since they don't have a history of blowing the doors off FCS teams, I might stay away from the game...

GL this year Cuse...I will be follwing your threads again.  Like your OK and Tex picks, with you on both. Not following the Tex line though, does not make sense...