Week 1

Welcome Brothers, 

I hope we all have a very profitable college football season this year. Remember, only thing that matters is the BOTTOM LINE.

I will preface this by saying that the amount of games I play vary week by week. Some weeks I could play 5 games some weeks could be 25 games, with the smaller numbers coming later in the season. This is simply because I believe that if I do the research needed and come to the conclusion I really like a certain side I am going to play it. I will probably get the frittata comments like “Oh that’s too many games, you’ll never profit.” Whatever, this is a hobby that makes some side money and makes even the garbage games worth watching. I don’t bet mega money like some people, I keep this at $100 a game, for every game. I do NOT suggest tailing because there are much better cappers here that have been doing this for longer than I have been alive.  I just want to have somewhere I can record my picks, get discussion on games and work together to earn $$$.

That being said, let’s get started with Week 1. These lines come from 5Dimes/Betonline/Topbet after I bought somewhere between ½ to 1 ½ points. I will always buy points to get to a “key” number to play it “safe”, just a personal preference. Draws are better than losses. 

Week 1: 20 Games for now with brief explanations. Most of these games have been talked about ad nauseam already.

South Carolina (-10) – Bought ½: Thursday night game to start the season. Williams Brice will be rocking. A&M is without Johnny and Evans coupled with a defense that should be better but probably still horrid. Mike Davis should have an amazing game behind arguably the nation’s best O-Line

Ole Miss (-10): This young team is more experienced and playing a Boise team that is not the Boise of a few years ago. New HC playing SEC in Atlanta for their first game might get ugly. Bo Wallace could be poised for a big year.

Washington St (-7) – Bought 1: 1 stat jumped out at me and that is Rutgers allowed 331.8 passing yards per game last year and Washington St. passed for 364.5 YPG last year. Connor Halliday is back and I doubt Rutgers has acquired the talent to stop the pass. They are great at stopping the run, but we all know Leach hates running the ball.

BYU (-16 ½): I already started a thread about this game and even though BYU’s RB is suspended for this game, I still expect Taysom Hill to destroy his rebuilding UConn team. Last year’s fiasco vs Virginia will be emphasized.

Houston (-10) – Bought 1:  O’Korn is a stud. Houston just churns out great QB’s, regardless of who the coach is. I know UTSA returns 20 starters (10 OFF/ 10 DEF), but the one missing on offense is the QB. Houston is explosive and I expect many points from the Houston Offense.

Arizona (-23 ½): I watched this game last year. The last leg of a 6 game parlay. Total domination. Rich Rod says that his team will go faster than last year and UNLV couldn’t keep up last year. I was a blowout last year AT UNLV and now this game is a home game for Arizona. I know Arizona is replacing some key pieces, but c’mon, what gives?

Northwestern (-10) – Bought ½: NW is having so many issues since that Ohio St. game last year. Horrible record, player unions, injuries, suspensions, transfers. Ugh! They handled CAL last year on the road and now get them at home. I think deciding on one QB will be very beneficial vs. a CAL team that went 1-11 last year with their only win against Portland St (Favored by -27, had to come back to win)

Nebraska (-23 ½): I also had a thread on this game. Abdullah will wreak havoc and I still believe there is a family revenge factor that Bo will want to handle for his brother Carl. FAU has a decent dual threat QB, but this might be as ugly as 2009 when the final was NEB 49 – FAU 3 (NEB a -23pt favorite then also.)

Penn St (+1):  Why the hell is UCF favored here? When a team loses the production of Bortles and Storm, the team normally falls off some. This school does not have the studs waiting to get their shot like the big boy schools. Everyone loves UCF defense, but BookieAssassin showed us the stats in another thread that the weakness of the team was the defense. Hackenberg should be even better this year and James Franklin is one hell of a coach.

UCLA (-21) – Bought ½: Talent is lopsided. Not worried about across country early start after watching Oregon cover easily last year. UCLA is no Oregon, but this team is more talented on both sides of the ball. I expect UCLA is going to try and make a push for Hundley to get the Heisman this year. Blowouts influence the voters.

Ohio St (-17): I locked this in last night and see the news about Braxton tonight. I know this is a big loss, but the discussion was never the Ohio St. O vs Navy D, it was how well Ohio St will handle the Navy O. I still like Ohio St. at this spread and hope the line plummets so I can throw another bet on Ohio St. Urban is a good coach and we all know Ohio St. has 10X the talent Navy has.

Marshall (-24): I know Marshall was horrible ATS on the road last year. Cato is a monster and should have a field day on the pathetic Miami-OH team who couldn’t even score more than 17pts in a game last year. I see Marshall scoring easily into the 50’s and Miami-OH continuing the anemic offense again this year, even with some Notre Dame additions to the team.

Washington (-14) – Bought 1 ½: I loved this game at 21 before C. Miles got suspended, and now I bought it to -14 since he got suspended. I know strange things happen on the Islands, but the talent differential is horrendous here. The backup QB’s for Washington will be just fine seeing how C. Miles didn’t participate much in spring. Peterson knows what he is doing and I believe he will want to make a statement in his first game as the Huskies coach.

Alabama (-24) – Bought 1 ½: New Bama QB is all the focus. Focus is in the wrong spot for this game. Bama D and run game should be the focus for WV if they want to stand a chance. I expect Bama to run, run, run and run some more while trying to figure out which QB (Sims or Coker) is going to be the starter.  WV does not have the depth, size or athleticism to keep up with Bama on the field. I bought this to 24 because 35-10 could easily happen.

Auburn (-21):  Nick Marshall is not starting. His backup is pretty good. Running game is amazing. Allen for Arkansas is just not that good, but they have a couple decent RB’s. Bielema’s teams struggle with high tempo teams and I expect a Marshall-less Auburn team to cruise to an easy cover while Arkansas starts to wonder why they are paying this guy so much money.

Florida (-35): This Florida team was decimated last year by injuries. They had all offseason to listen to how bad they are because of GA Southern. UF should be embarrassed, they should be pissed off and they will want to hurt someone. Insert Idaho with a new starting QB. UF defense should outscore Idaho’s offense and a shutout is very probable.

USC (-21): They just played each other in December. USC won by 25. Fresno replaces Carr (which will not be easy). USC has a coach that knows how to utilize talent. USC has talent all over the place. Fresno will have a long season in my opinion. I think USC will have a repeat of the bowl game, but this time it might get ugly.

Florida St (-17) – Bought ½: Oklahoma St. is only returning 8 starters (4/4). This is the first stop in what I consider to be a great year to fade OSU. I love Gundy as a coach, but you can only do so much with the talent that you have. I expect Jameis to have a small sophomore slump, but not in week 1.

LSU: (-3) This team is one of a handful that can lose eleventy billion players to the draft ear year and still dominate on a weekly basis. Depth is never an issue for them; the only issue is Youth and inexperience. Wiscy and LSU lose a bunch but Wiscy doesn’t have the young talent that LSU has and I see this as a decisive LSU victory.

Tennessee (-6 ½): Love college ball on a Sunday. I love Chucky Keeton but anyone who has had a severe leg injury will tell you that even if they are medically 100%, they are never 100% confident and care free like they were before the injury. I expect Tennessee to have a much better season and Worley to improve under Butch Jones. This game will dictate just how good/bad Tennessee’s season will be.

I might add a couple more once I research the FBS vs. FCS matchups.

Good Luck to All.

-85-

85 - I like the Tenn, LSU, Fla St, USC, AZ, Houston, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Mississippi picks.   We have similar angles, so we must be reading similar research (for better or worse). 

GL in week 1!

i agree on most of these...good job with the write-ups!  The only game i'm truly against and it seems i'm on an island with my thoughts is LSU/Wisky.

LSU might be the better overall team by end of year but week 1 I gotta go with the returning QB in year 2 of the coaching regime, the best player on the field, Gordon, Wisky O-line is best in big ten.  Yes, Wisky loses A LOT on defense but LSU is not some offensive juggernaut (ly was exceptiong with NFL QB  Mettenberger)...i dont trust a team relying on a freshman rb and either freshman qb or rs freshman qb to run a fluent offense.

We shall see.

why do think its too high...is that based on past performance of previous teams, or a new coach, new regime, new systems, or due to injuries...why...

I will tell you this..I will be shocked if N Texas, with their 4 returning starters scores more than 7 on this hyper motivated Texas D...With regard to the Texas O, I think there may be some initial adjustments and kinks to work out, and it may not be pretty in the first half, but I think with Texas depth, on a hot night in Austin, Texas will pound the ball, and wear down N Texas in the 2nd half.  

Yes, Texas has BYU and UCLA on deck (two games that I think we can win).    But, Texas fans have been hungry for a beat down win against an inferior opponent.   N Texas is not pathetic, but with their losses from last year, they are not going to be a good team either from the getgo.

Our whole season hinges on the health of our QB Ash.  If he goes down, all bets are off.  Though we have a solid stable of running backs to pound the pound if necessary.  Our primary backup is swoopes, who is athletic, but not very bright, and 5 star freshman at of high school Heard.  

This is not a top 9 game for me (primaries), but I think Texas has a good chance to cover in this matchup...

please WestHam, what are you smoking, Mon...

Texas, during the last four years of Mack Brown's regime, recruited talent comparable to Alabama.   Texas has talent at every position.    Imagine, all that 5 star talent, playing to anywhere close to its potential.   P Steele has N Texas as his 91st ranked team, or bottom 30.  Texas is a legit top 20 Team.    The talent differential is huge.

The only thing that concerns me is Strong's reliance on D, and his not striving to cover ATS while at Louisville, thus coaching tendencies.    I do not advocate that bettors back Texas ATS as huge DD favorites against Major Conference foes after the UCLA game.   Strong is just not that kind of coach in my opinion.    But, with all the scrutiny that Strong has endured, with the Big Cigars wanting Saban, and Red McCombs (another cigar) saying that Strong is a good DC, but does not deserve to be the coach at Texas, that Texas deserved better, that must be weighing on Strong. 

At least for this 1st game, assuming a health Ash, I think with N Texas only returning 9 starters and a green (pardon the pun) QB, and a new RB, and WR's, the motivation and talent advantage is definitely with Texas.

Texas 42

North Texas 7