WEEK 1

Sorry boys got a LATE start....
  *not good when lines have been out for months = limited value now

Here's a few I like.....will do write-ups later if time allows
  * still working on building a (SOLID) set of Power Rankings....and looking at weeks 2-3...SO little time to hang out here ...OR even enjoy the games I'm afraid 



HOW I BET
 *just a few straight plays / week...I seem to find more value / soft numbers in-game or halftime
     I like to catch a number IMMEDIATELY....these are subject to a FAST change..often before I can (remember) to post it here

WHAT I POST HERE
  *I check out 10-15 games / week usually...and post recommendations on most of those games...with write-ups if I have time
  
    *NOPE....I ain't gonna run to Covers and post every actual play I make
    *NOTE: overall over a 10-15 yr period....2500 games or so...they average 57-58%...my hunches lately have done better than my top plays...(I sent out stuff to buddies / clients several years before here).....still do
         
          * LY 152-106...2013 125-92
          * 5 losing weeks last 2 years...weeks 8..10...11...13 both wtf
          * 64% 1st 5 weeks  


Some have moved probably........


ONE UNIT

Vandy +2
UCLA -17
Penn St -6

smaller

NCSt -25
Washington +12
Okie St / CM over 54

consider       Zona -31...BYU +7...Louisville +10'


$ will play Vandy ML too...back with more if I find anything...Bruins good to 20' probably (maybe not ha)

SHOULD...be able to have early line stuff out each Sunday morning week before noon
  *what I think the line 'should be'

BOL boys...........

Good luck my friend 

GL

GL assassin and thanks for all the info you provide on the forum 

Good to see you!  Bol!

BA,    With you on Penn St.   I was thinking  W. Kenty but laying off now. No play on UCLA .  Strongly looking at Ariz./TXSA. Just a matter off finding my comfort spot. Probably have a half time wager on that one and the line.  Looks like a terrible spot for TSAU to me. Ariz. might overlook this but only Nevada in 9 days.

Dallas area probably has the best high school teams in the state .  Actually they have best in the country.  Shame is SMU and NTSU are pitiful.  

If your doing the look ahead check out Rice-4 @ No. Tx.. on 9-19. Home field is no big deal. Rice is stuck between @ TX and @ Baylor but this will be their first conference game. 

GL,    Doc

 

A few ideas.....
  *keeping in mind...these are simply IDEAS from a perfect stranger online > you do this anyway you want



DECIDE..... WHAT YOU WANT TO ACCOMPLISH....

             *IF.....you want / need to make money.....follow the basic principles and you (should) find it hard to lose money.....
                WHY?....because you will be one of the VERY FEW that run it like a business....and not subject to these weekly highs / lows of the common jackazz gambler...the more emotion / bias you can eliminate the better.....the closer you can get this to a simple day trading type investment the better
                   NOTE:  the weaker offshore lines (while they last) help a great deal too..........
            
           MAIN THING -   don't half azz do this and WORRY / GET FRUSTRATED as to why you can't win....you're not really trying to win....so have fun and don't worry about it....just set aside what you can (comfortably) afford to lose > that's gone > you're DONE  



DON'T........have this big emotional build-up to your games / picks each week
   *spending all week justifying 'your teams'....making bold predictions / promises etc....THEN starting OVER next week ?......
 
     *This (most every time) leads to an overreacton to a big win ...or loss
 
MAKE THE PLAY > MOVE ON TO THE NEXT ONE....c'mon man    


REALIZE.....your losses won't come in any nice / spaced out order
   *unless you stop betting...the season is continuous >

IMO...no such thing as a 'good'....or 'bad' week

 Bet 20 games / hit 60%.....damn good btw
     *you want it to look like this > W L W  W L  W  W L W L W  W L W L W L W L W
      BUT.....it might look like this tho > W W W W W L W L W W W W W W L L L L L L  
      so NOW....you're on this huge COLD streak?.....you suck at this?.....NOPE
        * NOW.....you feel the PRESSURE to bet more / to make up for those losses?....probably but WHY?
          SCREW THE CRITICS.....you know wtf you're doing



DON"T ....handicap games ONE AT A TIME....meaning you essentially start over each week
     *failing to realize a given team's season has a flow...or theme kinda
     *a team is always looking ahead or behind at something.....these are YOUNG kids
     *try to write the season's (for a given team) story in your head....based on their past performance in a given spot....factoring in any changes (many HC are very predictable in how they will have their team prepared) .........and/or situational factors
     $  this will put you AHEAD of the oddsmaker....who is thinking NFL...MLB...NBA...NHL +++

 EXAMPLE:
   Here's a few I'm looking at WEEK 2
      *as the games progress week 1.....I take notes based on how it will effect the next week's games...esp. if creating a misleading final score...giving us a WRONG opening number  

Tues  La Tech @ WKU
       * LY we know WKU got humiliated 59-10 at LT
       * I expect WKU to LOSE at Vandy / LT will slaughter Southern U...so instead of WKU being favored by 2'-3...we may get a line of pick'em or so...... > play WKU immediately

  THEN > after LT get's their azz kicked by WKU....they will be a (larger dog than they should be).....at Kansas St (kinda a flat spot off S Dakota and at UTSA / bye next)

  THEN > I will look to play ON Kansas St at Okie St (who is off TEXAS with a road game at WV on deck)....
           note: Horns (before OSU) off a TOUGH win over Cal with TCU on deck > I expect Okie St to either win or come close
      $ either way a great spot for BILL SNYDER (also 4-0 ATS at OSU)
    
*ALSO....after Texas loses (maybe) to either Cal or OSU...I will look to play them LARGE at OVERRATED TCU (Frogs -18 now)
         Frogs will be 4-0 (#2 in nation)...Horns 2-2....maybe 1-3

            THEN:  after Texas beats TCU (or almost more likely)....I will HAMMER OU the following week to smash those (falsely) confident and overmatched Horns ...........

VANDY?....I'll see how their D handles WKU as the game progresses...mainly how well they RUN / control the game
    *if they CAN'T run here...they run on Georgia?...nope
     But...if they play as I expect...I will look to play them again at home vs a disinterested Georgia (SCaro on deck)

GET IT........................
  *btw.....any / all doesn't work....I have many more of these scenarios buried deep inside my southern / chicken fried brain

RESPECT.... EARLY line moves.....ignore LATE moves ......usually  

    
LISTEN..... TO EVERYONE > FOLLOW NO ONE


$$$  THERE ARE 2 SIDES TO EVERY BET
          * IF ONE SIDE APPEARS TO BE JUST TOO EASY...IT MOST LIKELY MEANS YOU DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT THE OTHER SIDE


TRY.... not to introduce MAGIC into your handicapping...
        >> seeing things that just aren't there.....many teams that are 'DUE' to win/ cover...might be due for yet another azz whoopin'
          
            IF...you can't EXPLAIN the play...in simple terms....forget it
            IF...you think OUTSIDE / supernatural forces have intervened to cause you to lose...you're really YOUNG...stupid...a loser or all the above.....................
                 *'karma'...fixed games etc....  


STRATEGY
          1)  LIFE / GAMBLING.....WILL KICK YOUR AZZ IF YOU LET IT......
                *why TF do you think psychologists so often use gamblers...when studying human behavior?
                 it EXPOSES our basic weaknesses......in a HURRY
   
              SO....make this as simple as possible
                   *know the NUMBER (or team if you must)                        *know WHEN / WHERE you can bet it
                   *know HOW MUCH you will bet (write it down)
                   *you win?....so what
                   *lose?.......so what
                   
                   eg.  your normal routine (for most everybody)
                         watch games on Sat > NFL on Sunday > check college lines Monday....then see who likes what > bet late in the week WHEN THE LINES ARE THE TOUGHEST TO BEAT
       * WHY?....because any mistakes made by the oddsmaker have ALREADY BEEN corrected
               $ THERE IS REALLY (not much) LEFT.....for those that KNOW what they're doing!!!!   

                SO....check out week 2-3 beforehand....you already know the teams you want to play right?....
                   why wait?....if like me.....you're looking hard at UCF at TREE (off long road trip to NW / USC on deck)
                     TREE handles NW (likely)....UCF maybe struggles with FIU a bit....I'm looking at getting 14+ (was 18 at 5Dimes)
                       *I see 14'-15 I'm hitting it immediately...if not I move on
   
      *wanna bet USC at home vs IDAHO?...once it opens it ain't going nowhere but up....esp if the Vandals play well / cover vs Ohio....and USC / ASU game closer than expected   
                       it opens at 38.....you shift to full retard mode and watch it climb to 43 > then bet it (stupid win or lose)
              
  Bet favorites / overs EARLY in the week.......usually
                  $ dogs / unders later.................usually



FOCUS....on the games of little interest
  *WHY?....because the lines are more easy to beat.....>> less correction (betting action)  

THE MORE ANGLES......you can use to break down a match-up....the greater chance you have of winning consistently...in the LONG TERM
   *situational handicapping....for those with limited time to study...is probably the easiest way to go
    $ knowing when a team is in a 'comfortable' spot...and not helps tremendously as well
    $$ many coaches have long track records of being great before a bye / off loss / or at home...etc
       some stink....Saban is terrible off a loss / Stoops great....Snyder has all covered....as does Gary Pinkel (recently)
 

$$$$$         THE END RESULT?....
         *work towards relying less and less on OTHERS OPINIONS....more and more on YOUR OWN

              STOP AND THINK ABOUT IT....if all you do is rely on what OTHERS think .....basically....using THEIR interpretation.....how can you EVER truly UNDERSTAND it?

               The 'EXPERTS'....we rely on for CFB wagering.....and pretty much everything else......
                   *are for the most part just guessing like most of us...or selling us something...with rare exception
                    
                      ESPN guys can't all agree .....so debates are scripted no doubt....that Mark May / Lou Holtz stuff wow
     *love that coaches roundtable or whatever.....usually.....

Like that ok state and CMU over! Good luck!!!

Great stuff BA...your posts are a benefit.

GLTY!

gotta bump this guy, he knows his garbage 

 Good read...Like your style. Been eyeing Vandy for sometime now. One of my favorite plays of week 1.

Well Said , Bud. To those just starting out capping
CFB , every week can be a learning opportunity IF
you choose to take advantage of it.

Like the Vandy and PSU picks.

Interesting you should mention the weeks that you
had that were losing ...... Since 1994 , I've tracked
my winning / losing weeks and found a consistent
trend for each week of the season. I now know that
there are some weeks to be wary of and others on
which to press parlay bets. 

Best of Luck Buddy , and thanks for all of your
contributions to this forum . God Bless .

BA,       

What a genius bro...

I have 1 question... what do you think about the under/over in the game vandervilt vs wk its in 62.5 now?

Brilliant advice, BA, always an asset!

 BA , You have a gift for putting all of this Capping
stuff in it's proper perspective.


BA,    

Respect and good luck to u 

BEST in the BIZ !! GL this yr

 

Good stuff bookie! 

KNow your usually up to date w injuries but hyped up juco xfer Fitzwater out for ULM as is primary TE.  Might consider Georgia now in a blowout.  BOL amigo 

GL this year book....hopefully it's another good one

BA..