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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




too funny......been meaning to post this (c/p from notes)

c'mon man....you KNOW you wanna play Billy N / ULL...let's have it ha.......

I would think ?.....that public $ pushes it upwards to 23'-24
  * as we get reports like this :

https://247sports.com/Article/Tommy-Stevens-Mississippi-State-Manning-Passing-Academy-Penn-State-football-133336926/

>>  then it get's bet down a bit closer to KO.......we might see 24 sure / can't see it dropping below 21


I didn't even mention a side.    ..... But I have already played both teams opening RSW Totals.

Good stuff as always, BA    I tend to agree on the line movement prediction.  Time will tell.

...... and I think some degen Heisman money just came in on Tommy Stevens.  Uh oh.  My Tua +500 ticket is not looking so good after I read that article.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bohemen_mahren:

I am looking alot at the ole miss Memphis game, and the bookies have it currently at -6 to -6.5 on Memphis.

Memphis in in 1015 while playing them in Memphis won 37-24 and ole miss was favored by -10. 

ole Miss has lost their last 3 true road openers, and my question is do you guys think it will continue or do you think that ole miss will pull out a win or loose by 3 or 4.... with the team back up to 85 scholarships and the bowl bann finaly gone can their players pull of an early win on the road with only 3 players returning on offense?

 

and will Memphis's loses of their star RB Henderson and WR Pollard hurt them as well as only returning 2 Ol starters on the line.


I would probably stay away from this one buddy.....way too many new faces / COACHES on both sides......
  $  for me it would be Ole Miss or nothing / strong lean UNDER maybe..........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #53
Great read BA.

Can't wait for those agonizing moments refreshing Betonline on Sundays waiting for openers.

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

He is in prime form already! an_roll_laugh

"Listen fool. I can beat the caca out of you any day I want. You would not last 5 minutes. The only question would be just how badly I decide to beat you. Now go back and hide in your cave hole, you broke little peon."


man you ain't kiddin'...................

DEATH THREATS already......

You are a f**king liar. You either prove that I was ever convicted of a thing or I will kick your worthless behind from one end of the street to the other. Where I live, we have nice large Oak Trees waiting for ******* like you. Bring it on or I will kick your arse. Prove what you are saying or you will not be saying much of anything else.

Somewhere.....TRUMP is sitting back in pure awe...wishing he had that kinda style........



 
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Posted: #55
great article....that applies to COVERS (forum behavior) >>  
  * in a BIG way



“the less care with which others conduct their affairs, the more care with which you should conduct yours.” When others are afraid, you needn’t be; when others are unafraid, you’d better be.    -  W. Buffet
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #56
Great article...A timely one...I was thinking about this topic around half an hour before you posted it.
 
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Posted: #57

Too fricking funny! The guy is so hilarious. You cannot not laugh. an_roll_laugh

SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #58

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

   187 Virginia Tech188 Boston College  -2  $ BC > FCS > Kansas > Rut  $ VT > Old D > FCS > bye     >> ZERO to suggest VT favored here189 Syracuse

 

Talk to me about BC... Dillon is back sure- but BC isn't exactly great at throwing the ball and they lose their top 2 WR and TE... and on D, where they were surpringly average- only reurn 4 starters, and only 1 in the back 5 (3-3-5 D)

 

O wasn't the issue for VT wth Willis under center and Hokies return their entire secondary... 3/4 also return on the DL, even though they were miserable at stopping the run last year...

VT seems to be a trendy early pick with laying the short number, but don't know how I can back BC here outside the game being at home...

 

what say you?

 
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Posted: #59

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

    177 Georgia State178 Tennessee  -27'  $ UT > BYU          >> Offense MUST get confidence here

I do like these types of games in week 1 where there's motivation to start strong... Tenn 5-7 last year, another year of underachieving... O was huge issue last year but new OC, returning QB and RB and top 2 WRs... and GSU, while returning some on O, is just miserable on D... 

Laying 25-26 with this Tenn O seems risky, but early statement could be key here...just a matter of if you think Tenn can get to 40 (something they only did once last year)

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

 

Talk to me about BC... Dillon is back sure- but BC isn't exactly great at throwing the ball and they lose their top 2 WR and TE... and on D, where they were surpringly average- only reurn 4 starters, and only 1 in the back 5 (3-3-5 D)

 

O wasn't the issue for VT wth Willis under center and Hokies return their entire secondary... 3/4 also return on the DL, even though they were miserable at stopping the run last year...

VT seems to be a trendy early pick with laying the short number, but don't know how I can back BC here outside the game being at home...

 

what say you?



LY BC was about 5/6 points better.......POOF! > now they're 5/6 WORSE?......like magic a TEN POINT SWING

1)  I don't see how anybody could play the Hokies....without answering the question......WHY are so many guys leaving (some during the season too) ?????    

2)  BC is a fine road team.....but TERRIBLE at home
       * last 20 ACC home games they have won FIVE / covered 7
           >>  road 10-10/15-5

IF....you like to guess ha.....Hokies might be ok to risk a small bet here....usually strong starters....only Old D > Furman on deck
  $  GTTH......I reckon I would play the Hokies (wouldn't tell anybody tho)
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:

I do like these types of games in week 1 where there's motivation to start strong... Tenn 5-7 last year, another year of underachieving... O was huge issue last year but new OC, returning QB and RB and top 2 WRs... and GSU, while returning some on O, is just miserable on D... 

Laying 25-26 with this Tenn O seems risky, but early statement could be key here...just a matter of if you think Tenn can get to 40 (something they only did once last year)


I've got Tenn as a team to 'play on'....former Georgia OC Chaney (should) make a huge difference.....BYU on deck but with terrible offensive production LY.....embarrassing displays AT HOME...vs mighty Charlotte....scored 24 vs UTEP......GSU should have their FULL FOCUS.......plus GSU  has little ability to DISRUPT the Vol O....can't stop the run at all / bring pressure......I think the Panthers get murdered here.......   
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Posted: #62

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

  I don't see how anybody could play the Hokies....without answering the question......WHY are so many guys leaving (some during the season too) ?????    2)  BC is a fine road team.....but TERRIBLE at home       * last 20 ACC home games they have won FIVE / covered 7           >>  road 10-10/15-5IF....you like to guess ha.....Hokies might be ok to risk a small bet here....usually strong starters....only Old D > Furman on deck  $  GTTH......I reckon I would play the Hokies (wouldn't tell anybody tho)

I can answer your question about why people left the VT program. Basically this was a delayed reaction to the coaching change from Frank Beamer four years ago. Most programs will see a lot of player turnover within the first year or two of a new coach. But Beamer was and still is a visible and active presence at VT. Plus Fuente knew he was replacing a HOF coach and had to tread carefully to keep the fans happy during the transition. So the hard decisions about bad player fits were delayed until year 3 (2018) once Fuente had enough of his recruits on campus.

The big problem last year was that a lot of defensive talent and leadership that should have been junior or senior starters went to the NFL early and VT was left with a bunch of underweight and inexperienced young players. The transfer portal just made it even more pronounced in getting rid of the last of the Beamer recruits who did not fit the new program. So this year is a big unknown and should be interesting to see just what VT will look like under Fuente.

 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

MISS ST

Building / maintaining as well........
  * BUT are his (Joe Moorhead) goals to go out and kick the dog sheet outta ULL?)........not unless he's an idiot

next only S Miss......but then
Kan St > Kentucky > @ Auburn

SO....he uses these 1st 2 as SCRIMMAGES
  * finding a QB that can actually THROW.....otherwise teams he can't RUN on are gonna beat his azz again....plus he claims he only put in about 1/2 his O LY
  * DC Shoop needs to get his new guys on D reps....supposedly experimenting with more even fronts (4-2-5 vs
old 3-4)


2)   SO we can make a decent guess that ULL just might not have the FULL FOCUS of Miss St.....

BUT......can ULL compete here?
  * can they RUN the ball / move the chains / avoid 3rd - longs > get new QB killed?
  * can they slow MSU down at least?

LY QB Nunez was just OK......so new guy will probably be as good eventually.....game 1 vs SEC D?.....who TF knows
   >> my guess is they'll be OK here......5 5th yr Srs on OL (st every game LY).....plus 3 pretty good RB's....they bleed clock here / screen MSU to death....keep them off balance > hit a few big plays maybe.....

Can an improved  but still really weak ULL D not get steamrolled by a Joe Moorhead O ?
  > he's pretty sharp

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/7/17/17453332/joe-moorhead-mississippi-state-offense-philosophy

Depends on the development of QB Stevens (likely starter at Penn St before transfer).....if he starts Thompson (worse passer than Nick F).....working Stevens in later ......ULL can hang here
  $    BUT if Stevens is lighting it up (definite possibility).....the problem for a ULL bet will be magnified....as they will likely leave him in late in game (needs the reps)

For me a strong lean ULL for sure....look at the UNDER too...



You are 100% correct, Miss St's season rests on having a QB that can THROW
9 of 18 passes for 106 yards and three touchdowns
Keyaton Thompson had a good spring, so we will see how he develops throughout the season. I took LA Laf here for a small play  

Their schedule will not help 

7 SEC games in a row? 4 on the road? And they play Texas A&M and Arkansas before Bama. Ouch 

I will be staying away from them most of the season 
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by hokieal:

I can answer your question about why people left the VT program. Basically this was a delayed reaction to the coaching change from Frank Beamer four years ago. Most programs will see a lot of player turnover within the first year or two of a new coach. But Beamer was and still is a visible and active presence at VT. Plus Fuente knew he was replacing a HOF coach and had to tread carefully to keep the fans happy during the transition. So the hard decisions about bad player fits were delayed until year 3 (2018) once Fuente had enough of his recruits on campus.

The big problem last year was that a lot of defensive talent and leadership that should have been junior or senior starters went to the NFL early and VT was left with a bunch of underweight and inexperienced young players. The transfer portal just made it even more pronounced in getting rid of the last of the Beamer recruits who did not fit the new program. So this year is a big unknown and should be interesting to see just what VT will look like under Fuente.


Fine work thanks...................

Personally I hate it (uncertainty)......being a Hokie fan / Bud Foster homer (spent 2-3 days learning his D from coaching clinic notes ha)......your explanation makes sense...but it does seem like way too many guys seem to can't wait to get TF outta there....(leaving early too)

Meaning especially since :
     * no doubt JF knows what he's doing > appeared he was on his way to making the program stronger
     * he's (supposedly) well liked by his players 

FACTS ARE:  3 years his team is much worse......best year was 1st with all Beamer guys.....= the more influence he has had on the program....the worse they played  ...........
   $  what great coach .....follows this pattern?

That said............... .............................
  * the more I think about it.....the more I think they'll be a GREAT team to play......esp early.......of course...smart thing to do is to simply WAIT and see what they do to BC.....
  * got a great shot at being 6-1 or 7-0 going into N Dame....man I hope that VT struggles with Duke / Canes are playing great...love to catch 6 or so as dog at Miami.............
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Posted: #65

If you don't get AT LEAST A DOZEN bookmarks, you are a loser (or will lose).........

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Ifan_Bates:


You are 100% correct, Miss St's season rests on having a QB that can THROW
9 of 18 passes for 106 yards and three touchdowns
Keyaton Thompson had a good spring, so we will see how he develops throughout the season. I took LA Laf here for a small play  

Their schedule will not help 

7 SEC games in a row? 4 on the road? And they play Texas A&M and Arkansas before Bama. Ouch 

I will be staying away from them most of the season 



BOL this year man...............



few notes in games of interest...............

GS @ LSU

1st question you ALWAYS ask (in this type of game) is
     *  will the dog.....have the FULL FOCUS of the favorite?

here?.....not a chance.....LSU is looking towards a play-off berth.....their entire season then BEGINS NEXT WEEK at Austin....likely GAME DAY there too......I think ?

  >>  But....you go back and simply check....how has the crazy Cajun's teams played in this type game? 
   > big non-conf favorite / tough game on deck

SELA      W 31-0  (-40)
LT            W 38-21 (-20)
Rice        W 42-10 (-42)
-------------------------------

UT Chat   W 45-10 (-35)
Troy         L  21-24 ( -20')
  * Cuse  W 35-26  (-21') but Troy on deck


THEN.....you consider the match-up.....can the dog  slow down....stop / threaten what the favorite likes to do offensively?

  >  YES...they have athletes that can cause them problems....probably won't get much heat....but have outstanding CB's.....recall LSU installing new passing offense / may not show much here.....a vanilla game plan would make more sense 
  $  limiting big plays the focus of GSU D this year

  * take advantage of defensive weakness?
    >>>  HELL YES...

1)  you can't simulate the option in practice
2)  future NFL players often have LITTLE interest in guys going at their KNEES for an entire game
  $  FCS Ga Southern ran all over Bama in 2011 or so seems like..... 

$$$$  plus don't forget how option teams can BLEED CLOCK >> limit possessions......a man could make a great living simply playing option teams as big dogs.....Army / Navy / AForce etc



THEN......what does the dog have coming up?
  * does conference play begin next week?.....or do they have awhile to heal guys up?

      >> it MATTERS.....what type of idiot would expose his QB / RB's in a game he could not win?......some coaches do > some do not .....week 1.?......with Maine on deck I think they go all out here....unless things get outta hand

BUT.....if we see a great effort here by GS....you (might) see them back off a bit 9/14 at Minny....but they do have a bye the following week before SB play begins vs ULL
  $  Minny off Fresno road > bye next


Mizzou @ Wyoming

I try and remind guys  about this every year....usually very few examples tho......and no it ain't the altitude < tho that should ALWAYS be mentioned

Mizzou is at a considerable disadvantage here ...
  * long / ugly road trip to altitude....then 5 home games and bye follow / next road game OCT 19.....so kinda of a weird spot

AND.....

 $$$  school begins at Mizzou AUG 19th....once class begins the number of hours you can meet are limited (# of practices the same for everybody)........while Wyoming doesn't start until SEPT 4 after labor Day
  >> more time to work.....fewer distractions = more focus

note:.....Wyoming has not done well at all in this type spot at all......nothing wrong with Mizzou here > just a few things to consider (for everybody).......................... 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

If you don't get AT LEAST A DOZEN bookmarks, you are a loser (or will lose).........



hey wassup Hawk.......BOL this year man..............
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Havelin:

Great article...A timely one...I was thinking about this topic around half an hour before you posted it.

good stuff here on this blog ha ...........




'HERD / MOB' mentality.......to me is the greatest indicator of how little control we have over our own thoughts and actions......
  * at least now (most yikes) lynchings occur usually only ONLINE............


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Posted: #69
Good Luck

 
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Posted: #70

[/Quote]I would probably stay away from this one buddy.....way too many new faces / COACHES on both sides......  $  for me it would be Ole Miss or nothing / strong lean UNDER maybe..........[/Quote]

 

thanks Bookieassasin.

 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:


I would probably stay away from this one buddy.....way too many new faces / COACHES on both sides......
  $  for me it would be Ole Miss or nothing / strong lean UNDER maybe..........

Looking a this one too, but lean Memphis...  new system on both sides for Ole Miss + Rebels return 3 O starters ... Tigers return 8 starters off D that was pretty good again run - new OC for Ole Miss- Rich Rod- more running O vs passing O.. Ole Miss also dreadful on d LY- would think White can have field day here
 
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Posted: #72
BA never can be said too much the lessons, help, advice you bring year after year.

Thanks for being there and I hope many learn.

Best of luck this season.

 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:




too funny......been meaning to post this (c/p from notes)

c'mon man....you KNOW you wanna play Billy N / ULL...let's have it ha.......

I would think ?.....that public $ pushes it upwards to 23'-24
  * as we get reports like this :

https://247sports.com/Article/Tommy-Stevens-Mississippi-State-Manning-Passing-Academy-Penn-State-football-133336926/

>>  then it get's bet down a bit closer to KO.......we might see 24 sure / can't see it dropping below 21

                       ----------------------------------------------

BTW......(for others / TD already knows this stuff)


GREAT SPOT FOR ULL

1)    Forget all else....the 1st thing you look at here

WHAT ARE THE COACHES TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH HERE?

ULL -

  Billy N is BUILDING his program....off great year + huge recruiting class as well.....fans love him / players are confident > to go out and get slaughtered again (56-10 LY) would be BAD

how does schedule shape up?....it matters
  >>  Liberty
        TX Southern
         @ Ohio
          @ Ga Southern
            BYE
            App St  > Ark St

SO.....he has 2 weeks to get guys healthy before tough road game with Ohio .....then a really tough road game with Ga Southern (off bye / likely loss at Minny week before)

**IF ....he had GS the next week .....he (might) not go all out here.....keeping key players in all game >>  EXPOSING THEM TO INJURY



So would you believe me if I said I finally took ULL today and that's why the line is down to -21.    .... I wish.  Been waiting on this one.  My #s have considerably less than the original -22.5 but I still thought it may go up some.  We'll see what happens going forward.  I'd probably take +21.5 if it comes back half a point in the next week & a half.  Shame on me if it doesn't.

Hope you're grinding and well rested for the coming season!  I hope the prep work is going well for you.

   
 
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Posted: #74
I like your analysis on geo southern and lsu.  Do you like the trend to continue for lsu not covering a big spread in their first game. It looks like there is alot of money going lsu's way so far. 
 
 
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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

He is in prime form already!  "Listen arsehole. I can beat the caca out of you any day I want. You would not last 5 minutes. The only question would be just how badly I decide to beat you. Now go back and hide in your cave hole, you broke little peon."

 

Question - Is this our assigned "enforcer" to threaten bodily harm to random posters.  Be careful in Texas.  We are all packing and only 20% have enough self control to not use their weapons?

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