week 1 money

good to see the usual suspects working this time of year , man these numbers really started to move today after not doing much the first couple days, 3-4 points to the good on some although LSU went lower, must be some good money flying mostly on the same sides

tide - I think both offenses should do some damage there, I like some of UGA talent on defense however young and could take a couple games to get going...maybe 30-27 type game or higher, might look at the over if it's fair

double - looks like the herd offense should be even better with some WR transfers, defense is shaky though, MOH has some pieces on offense so not sure there

longhorn - MSU has a pretty good core returning other than some younger players at WR and DB, overall they're usually in most games other than their usual 17-20 pt. losses to AL and LSU although they kind of feel apart late in the year against a good A&M team, not really liking the Okie St QBs and skill players as much as some previous ones even though they can still put up points, looks like this one dropped from 14 to 12 now so some other early money there it looks like

Maine - LT has some unknowns for me at QB, OL and back 7, tough to lay many with NCS against decent team though....still checking out Tulsa-BG, initial thought is BG defense was solid the last 2/3 of the year and could be pretty tough again, we'll probably pass since rarely trust BG either

wahoo - good to see you back bro, looking forward to those early Sun night lines, yeah looks like the numbers moved a lot today mostly in the 'right' direction other than LSU like you say....looks like good money is heading the same way on most and on your MD pick too

appreciate the good words, let's all have a big year

each year we like to look at tape and pick a player with potential before they play a game including kid named Newton at JC...going with Kline this year, hoping he gets the start against NW even if he makes a couple mistakes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv_k090FH84

LTG -

2dawg - yeah pretty interesting, I was surprised Heritage posted openers early Friday ahead of CRIS (aka BM) and Heritage numbers were basically the same as 5 dimes...which turned out to be good other than LSU and Colorado for the most part

Funny you should mention that Pitt write-up.  Just yesterday someone suggested I submit that to a web site he likes.  Considering it's a couple of years old, I'm surprised to have had it mentioned twice in two days.  Yes, I'd like to do more of them.  Not sure where I'm headed this year, though.  Was contemplating a Jacksonville/Delaware (Thurs), BYU/UVa (Sat), Pitt/FSU trifecta to open the year, but just had something plopped down on that Saturday that will probably mean it''s just another trip to Heinz Field for me.   I threaten to go to Clemson and Tennessee every year, but never make it.  Clemson's in the middle of freaking nowhere, and I guess I'm just too lazy to make it to KnoxVegas.  After sufering through a breakthrough depressive espisode at last year's Bama game, I may never go to LSU again - at least not for a game I care about.   Will probably make it to UVa, and we're pretty easy to make fun of.  Some chance I'll go see Northwestern, if they can ever schedule a game worth going to that doesn't start at 11:00 am. 

As for Cal, I will generally take 8.5 with the faster, more athletic team, at home any day.  Cal was a disaster last year, but it was a funny disaster that included a game they should have won in Columbus, a blow-out of UCLA, a game they should have won against Nevada, a game they probably should have won against ASU, and a very solid half against Oregon (Oregon was the back-end of a $6,000 parlay, so I remember VERY well how well Cal played before imploding).  Cal doesn't have a QB, but Cal hasn't had a QB since Aaron Rodgers was banging Asian math majors after practice.  Cal historically over-achieves at home (this is true of most schools where reading and writing are not optional), and I like the new coach.  NU (one of my pet teams, by the way) seems to find a way to play close to everyone.  This just feels like 27-24.

GL this season.

USC  -21.5

No reason to think Hawaii will be much of a challange.

can you expand on that...why should any objective gambler risk their cash on a highly variable fruitcake like Kiffin who is playing in paradise where a vastly inferior Hawaii team has an advantage who could not motivate his team to anything more than show up at the Sun Bowl.   Are they going to Hawaii to kick some butt and start a successful season, or will they go through the motions and get a ten point win and call a day.  

Again, you will gain a lot of cred on covers if you can provide support from your otherwise Homer oriented pick.    Yours truly will be actively reading whatever you have to say.  Thanks in advance.

all

USC - what's happening, yeah I could buy that and one of a couple games still looking at...hoping for 21 or less since if it goes to 22 not much lost...I guess firing your OC can't be a good sign and OL will have some problems, the only hesitation for me with USC is the QB, not that impressed with Wittek last year so we'll see who the starter is and how camp goes, doesn't hurt that you're on them though

JMW - yeah we'll probably lay off for now having already missed the early number, looks like FIU has some problems just a little tough to lay too many with MD after last couple years and no DD wins over FBS, still though agree it should be a blowout

boom - how's it going bud, same here...nah I can't think of any reason for that drop, man I see it's down to 17.5 on BM (18 on heritage), might have to think about getting involved....doesn't look so different than '09 opener...even though VT hung around 34-24 on the scoreboard they were outgained 498-155 

BA - yeah might have to switch that up, looking forward to it buddy, BOL this year

Nebraska 48 Wyoming 13 - Wyoming run defense is pretty well known and not sure pass defense is much better, Smith and offense should be decent probably not here though, pokes played good at home in '11 matchup and still lost 38-14 (490-305), huskers usually solid in openers

Auburn 38 Wash St 14 - WSU only closer than 13 only 3 times on the road over last couple years and 2 of 3 were against UNLV and Colorado, believe Tigers offense will be better this year with QB experience and Gus, some new talent on front 4 and SEC road doesn't seem like a good spot for WSU

Texas 55 NMSU 3 - NMSU breaking in new QB with Manley transferred and new offense likely to turn it over, Horns offensive players getting better and Mack might be in the mood to keep it going for awhile

LSU 27 TCU 13 - not many teams reach 20 against the Tigers last few years and expect the defense to be tough again despite the losses, offense experience at skill positions and should be good enough and number seems pretty short on a neutral field, toads would have to play their best to hang around 3-4 and the hat tends to have them ready for games like this

bmoney

alek - last year wasn't good around 120-100 and didn't make many units, since '07 though pretty decent up around 107u for what's it's worth

dammit looks like USC Lee injured his shoulder yesterday

UCLA 48 Nevada 23 - Bruins showing signs of finally taking the next step, Hundley (67%, 29-11) didn't play much like a freshman last year. With Nevada losing its back 7 from an already not that great (442ypg) defense, give UCLA a big advantage there. Main concern is RB where someone needs to step up after Franklin, then again Nevada lost Jefferson

Tex Tech 38 SMU 21 - doubt Gilbert (53%, 15-15) can match TT offense and loses Line who was pretty solid, Kingsbury should be a good coach and losing to SMU wouldn't be the way he wants to start

Utah 30 Utah St 17 - Utes will be looking for revenge and sound ready to have a better season, going against Utah St cost us a couple games last year however loses Williams 2200+ all purpose yds. and top 6-7 pass catchers if I recall

Colorado 27 Colo. St 17 - normally not one to take a team as bad as Buffaloes were last year, however believe SJST coach coming in is huge upgrade over one of the worst there was, will be looking for revenge and overall has better of series, return of Richardson should help the offense

Cincinnati 24 Purdue 20 - Boilers were decent road team last year and like Hazell coming in as coach, expecting them to run the ball and play pretty good defense and some teams had success running against Bearcats last year (Syracuse and Duke rushing for over 200), main concern with Purdue is lack of WR playmakers, 14 seemed like an overlay and seems like BM agreed when it changed the market to 10 or 10.5

Northwestern 24 Cal 23 - normally try to stay away from teams with unknowns at QB however we like Kline and the others potential and honestly how much worse can they be than 13-13 TD-INT total combined last year, Bears could also get lift from new coach and offense with Dykes and have been known to play pretty well in Berkley, NW unproven laying many points on the road

Oklahoma St 28 Miss St 23 - not crazy about going against team that can score some points like OSU, however not liking their skill players as much as some previous years, MSU in most games not losing many by more than a couple TDs other than AL and LSU although they did appear to quit last year towards the end against Ole Miss and NW, not seeing it as that much different than A&M-Ark matchups from a couple years ago so give Bulldogs a chance to hang around

LJ - hey buddy, hopefully you'll be around this year or I'm down to 9 weekly threads to check out won't take long to key in on a few matchups each week or you could always throw a few bucks on certain covers cappers picks ...Kline looks like a good one to me, OL will need to be better than last year, BOL

looks like most of the week 1 numbers staying about the same after initial big adjustments after BM release...should be it for FBS sides...don't play many degenerate teasers although UGA and Florida St might work especially if UGA drops to PK or +1 again...probably another week before BM and heritage post write-in games and team totals, looking at a few

Arizona -27.5....already jumped to 31.5 (5 dimes),,,,Missouri -33....moved to 35.5 now ..projected team totals (estimated based on bet online game totals....Hawaii u17.5...expecting USC defense to be improved...ULM u20.5...might stay away from this at ULM as decent offense and OU defense down last year....No Illinois u24....doubt NIU goes past this against what should be pretty good Hawkeye defense....Pitt u17.5....not that likely Pitt can get to 20....Idaho u20....only exceeded this in 5 of 20 road games although UNT defense nothing special

time to start checking out week 2 matchups...only 15 days until sun night week 2 openers

Nos - two updates

QB Jared Golf - true freshman - has been named the starter for Cal against NW.   Dykes said it was because he picked up the system faster than Kline.    He was a #20 PS out of HS, but do yu think he will be able to pull a Manziel, or do you think NW "smart guy" schemes will confuse him and cause him to make mistakes.   I know NW is well, NW, but since they are returning 8 and 7 starters with an excellent coach, in a finely tuned system, who were up big on a respectable Miss St squad in the bowl last year (3 picks of Russell);to counter Corley, I have heard that NW will arrive in the Bay Area a few days early to prepare for the time difference.  I know Berkeley will be rocking, and Dykes will turn the Bears into winners, but do you think they can stick with arguably the 3rd or 4th best Big 10 team in "week 1".   Have you checked with CalBear to see what he thinks about this matchup (as a Cal Homer)?    I think it is awesome that you got Cal +8.  That may be a good bet.  I just believe NW is disciplined enough to overtake a talented yet underachieving Cal team.   In my opinion, if NW can't handle a 4th tier PAC 12 team even at their house, they will not match the 9-3 record in the Big 10 that they had last year.   

WR Austin Franklin, NM States best player - will redshirt for 2013 due to academic issues.    I know you probably have concerns about Mack Brown covering, the nice pansy that he is.  I think this is a case of a hungry UT team, with BYU and Ole Miss and KSU on deck, who wants to get the hurry up O down to a science prior to its next games and the Big XII conference schedule.   And Manny Diaz, who has been over is head at times, may have a bit of a chip on his shoulders and may have as a team goal to limit NM St to 3 points or less.   Honestly, the more I talk about my Horns, the more I like them in this matchup...

GL this season..