Week 1 observations and ponderings

Week 1 recap:

4* Sam Houston +10 It was a meh first week but my top play made it a winning week (barely), as the Bearkats picked up where they left off at the end of last season.  Keep an eye on this team going forward, especially as a dog (now 7-2-1 as an FBS team).  

3* FLORIDA +3 Boy did I get this one wrong!  Napier's seat is so hot now you could fry an egg on it.  I know it's only one week, but Miami looks like the class of the ACC right now.  Man, they looked good!  The Gators will struggle to make a bowl......again.

3* NEBRASKA -27'  This one went about like I thought it would.  The 'Huskers dominated from start to finish.  They should be 7-0 going into Columbus, and will be a player in the Big Ten.

3* SOUTH CAROLINA  -21  The Gamecocks were lucky to win this one against a game Old Dominion team.  Had the Monarchs not fumbled deep in their own territory, TWICE, leading to the 'Cocks only two TDs,  it would've been an embarrassing upset loss for Beamer and crew.  They have a lot to clean up before heading to Lexington this week!

Record to date 2-2, +0.4 units

More to come later.

North Carolina at Minnesota - Tough break for the 'Heels, losing QB Max Johnson for the season, but their defense looks solid, under new DC Geoff Collins. They allowed just 244 yards, 79 on the ground (2.4 yards per rush) with five QB sacks.  Still, if Minny had a kicker.....

Temple at Oklahoma - Pump the breaks on the Sooners.  The Owls literally handed them this game with six turnovers.  

Georgia vs. Clemson - The SEC flexed its' muscles for the most part in Week 1, but the Bulldogs' decimation of the Tiger Paw stood out above the rest.  Clemmie is no longer the power it was during their title runs.  Dabo may wanna rethink his position on the portal.

Penn St. at West Virginia - Nittany Lions dominated both lines of scrimmage in a surprisingly easy win in Morgantown.  What really stood out to me was the improvement in the WR room over last year, and Drew Allar was an impressive 11 of 17 for 216 yards and 3 TDs.

Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt - Break up the Commodores!  And congrats to anyone that took the over on Vandy's season win total.  They look good for at least four wins this season.  QB Diego Pavia was a one man wrecking crew (11-15 for 182 and a TD, and 111 rushing yards on 26 carries) as the 'Dores shocked the Hokies.

Ohio at Syracuse - The Bobcats dominated early before the Orange pulled away with 21 unanswered.  It was a costly win though as they lost their best defensive player, LB Marlowe Wax, for at least the next several weeks. Syracuse gave up 255 yards rushing at 6.5 yards a crack.  That doesn't bode well with Georgia Tech coming to town.

Boise St. at Georgia Southern - The Broncos can score, and the way their defense played in Statesboro they're gonna have to.  Tough spot for BSU, going to the other coast this week to play Oregon.  The Ducks were laying in the weeds against Idaho.  I think they'll bring their A game here.

UNLV at Houston - The Cougars plain suck, but that doesn't take anything away from an impressive win, as the Rebs dominated with 195 yards rushing to only 38 for Houston. Barry Odom can flat out coach!

Fresno St. at Michigan - This was a lot closer game than the score would indicate.  A 70 yard pick six by the Wolverines was likely a 10 point swing, at least.  Next up:  Powerhouse Texas.  Could get ugly.  

Notre Dame at Texas A&M - I was on the Irish early last week, but I didn't know if their offensive line could hold up against the Aggies' powerful defensive front.  Turns out they dominated with 198 yards on the ground at 5.6 yards a carry!  The Irish defense was outstanding, especially the secondary as they held A&M to just 246 yards and 3.6 YPP!  Notre Dame could run the table and yet the best they can do is a five seed in the expanded playoffs.

Southern Miss at Kentucky - The Wildcats dominated in a game shortened to just over 35 minutes because of lightning.  QB Brock Vandagriff had a nice efficient debut, but the defense was stifling, holding the Golden Eagles scoreless with just 131 total yards, and a mere  5 yards rushing!  Next up is South Carolina.  Based on what I saw in Week 1 the Gamecocks might not be able to match up.

Georgia St. at Georgia Tech - So much for a letdown. The Yellowjackets have rushed for an average of 207 yards their first two games, averaging over 5.8 yards a carry!  They travel to Syracuse this week, and, as I mentioned above, the Orange run defense was a turn stile against Ohio.

Vandy will be 3-0  in the coming weeks  Alcorn "Air Mcnair" St = W   Geprgia St on the road= W  1ST true test game 4 at Mizzou,  This is not the doormat team of the SEC this year, would not be surprised for them to win there either. Pavia is Special and there Defense was mighty impressive most of the game especially when it counted at the end.

@DoYouMind69

 Don't see em losing to Ball St either. 

IRONY:

North Carolina at Minnesota - Tough break for the 'Heels, losing QB Max Johnson for the season, but their defense looks solid, under new DC Geoff Collins. They allowed just 244 yards, 79 on the ground (2.4 yards per rush) with five QB sacks.  Still, if Minny had a kicker.....

 CLICK > to #4  https://www.sportsgrid.com/ncaaf/article/ranking-the-top-5-college-football-kickers-for-2024

GL next week. Appreciate the recap when people do it

@Last2thirst

A little sarcasm there. Dragon Kesich was first team Big Ten a year ago, but I think missing that 27 yarder got in his head when he missed the game winner.  BOL to you to! 

Good one

Writeup was good...found something I can use this week 

@Last2thirst

 I'll have some more to post.  Apparently there's a 4000 character limit so I had to do a little deletion.  Guess I shouldn't be so long-winded! 

Ya, I posted some thoughts on some games too while the preseason intel is fresh in my mind + what happened last week....I think Vegas has quite a few scalpable lines this week

Nevada at Troy - A couple of things about these two teams that stand out to me.  First, Troy may be fade material for much of the season now that HC Jon Sumrall has taken his talents to Tulane, after an impressive two year run with the Trojans. The second thing that stands out is that the Wolfpack may be a lot better than expected under new HC Jeff Shoate.  Nevada gave a good SMU team all it could handle in Week 0, easily covering the big number, and now stands at 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS as a dog in this young season.  Now they face a Georgia Southern team, coming off a tough home loss to Boise (a game in which they rallied from a 28-9 deficit with 21 unanswered to take the lead before the Broncos took control in the 4th quarter), who has to travel clear  across the country to face a confident Nevada team.  Shoate comes from the Boise family tree and was on the short list to coach the Broncos when Bryan Harsin left.  The dude can coach!  The other thing about Ga. So. is they're good at home (5-1 a year ago), and they suck away from Statesboro (1-6 including the bowl loss).  The Wolfpack could be barking (pun intended) as a small dog here.  

Speaking of coaches, with Sumrall taking over for the Green Wave I don't see a drop off there.  That's a solid team that will contend for the Group of Five playoff berth. 

Florida Intl at Indiana - The Hoosiers are another team to keep an eye on under Curt Cignetti, who left James Madison after a six year run compiling a 52-10 record, 19-5 as an FBS school!  The guy is a winner, and he inherits 21 starters from a year ago!  They could be a live dog when they go to So.Cal. to face UCLA in a couple weeks.

USC vs. LSU - This was one of the best games of the weekend!  Both QBs, Miller Moss of the Trojans and Garrett Nussmeier of the Tigers, were dealing!  At the end it was Moss that led a Montana-esque drive with less than two minutes left to win it for USC.  Both defenses looked much improved under new DCs, but the Trojans looked especially impressive to me, and with Moss calling signals they should be very competitive in the Big Ten.

23-27 last year....

Boston College at Florida St. - If there was ever a team in need of a bye week it's the Seminoles who appear to be in a serious free fall.  They're not just getting beat, they're getting dominated! They've rushed for a grand total of 119 yards in their first two games, at 2.5 yards a clip, while the Yellowjackets and Eagles have combined for 464 rushing yards (5.3 per carry).  It was an impressive opener for BC, especially considering that HC Bill O'Brien didn't take the reins until February!

Boisestateand8 - Awesome takes.

@Boisestateand8

@CKP22

@Macwestie1

 Thanks fellas!  BOL this week!

 I heard a discussion on FSU a bit ago where one commenter was saying they failed to prove the committee wrong for omitting them from playoffs last year by losing their opener, to which a 2nd commenter said "you can't compare them......they lost a lot of starters to NFL...etc., etc.....". Which begs the question....WTF were they ranked as a top 10 team then?

@THEMUGG

 They scored high in the transfer portal rankings from what I read.  They lost a lot, but they supposedly gained a lot, key word there being "supposedly". 

DJ the most overrated QB of the last 20 years....

I've only looked at a few games on this week's docket, but I'm leaning towards:

Duke +3 over NORTHWESTERN on Friday.  The Blue Devils have won the last five meetings, four of those as a dog, and in his career new HC Manny Diaz is 7-1 ATS as a single digit dog.

I'd like to take Texas -7' over Michigan and Georgia Tech -3 over Syracuse, but the value has been sucked out of these lines.

  More to come.

Awesome read. Good luck this week. Look forward to your plays  

@BankOnIt22

 Backatcha brother! 

@Boisestateand8

 Good post. The bear espn guy had rice -10 his play of week. 

A couple more games I'm pondering:

California +13 over AUBURN - You gotta go back over ten years to see the last time the Golden Bears didn't cover as a non conference road dog.  Under Justin Wilcox they're 5-0 in that situation.  Also it's a revenge game for Cal.

IOWA -2' over Iowa St.- I know it was against an FCS team, but 40 points for the HAWKEYES???!!!  This line seems a little short to me.  Gonna have to dig into this one a little more. 

Couple more I'm looking at:

Utsa +1 over TEXAS ST -  Neither was impressive in week one, but it just feels like the wrong team is favored here.  Huge game full of playoff ramifications with both teams among the favs in their respective conferences.

Sam Houston +22 over UCF - I'm bearish on the Bearkats this season.  They're worth a look here.

Some more I'm considering:

NEVADA +1 over Georgia Southern - see post #10

NEBRASKA -7 over Colorado - Revenge game for the Huskers.  Not too many favs I like this week, but I MIGHT take this one.  

NEW MEXICO ST. +22' over LIBERTY - A really late start for the Flames, with the Aggies looking to avenge a pair of losses a year ago.  Line seems inflated.

Arkansas +7' over OKLAHOMA ST. - Hogs are a terrific 11-3 ATS as a road dog under Sam Pittman, who is starting former Boise St. QB Taylen Green behind center.  He's a hot and cold passer, but when he takes off nobody is catching him in the open field.

As you can see I like me some dogs this week.  Now to see if I can pick out some winners.  Opinions are welcome!  BOL fellas!