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Week 1 Plays- New to covers

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:


Tough game to cap... I assume most people would want to bet FSU if they bet it, but the line was set high enough to scare them off. Giving Ok St so many points on a neutral field probably keeps people away... 

Personally I am tempted to take the points, but not sure it is a wise move... might just stay away.


My one thought is that OK St has the kind of balanced offense that can keep the ball away from FSU's offense, and they can play just enough defense to get some stops... 

Defending National Champs are 15-1 SU with the average margin of victory being 31 points in the last 16 season openers. 

This will be one of the best numbers you can grab FSU at all year. OK ST is way to young to hang with this team  
 
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Posted: #27
Also adding 1 unit to LSU ( -3 buying 1 point )
 
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Posted: #28
I think if anyone controls the clock it will be FSU but they may hit the home run a time or two. With the running backs, offensive line, and TE FSU can try to control this game early. Also, if OklaSt comes out in that spread offense as usual, that may not be good as FSU's defense is designed to take away the many options a true spread offense presents. FSU most likely will blitz, play man on the edge early and often. I think a big thing for FSU is their 3rd down offensive conversion rate as compared to last year. If FSU can convert at a 50%+ clip like last year, OklaSt may not have the ball much this game. And when they do, they need to score. Just my thoughts. GL on your plays fellas.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by PaperMaker321:


Defending National Champs are 15-1 SU with the average margin of victory being 31 points in the last 16 season openers. 

Almost all of those games were against creampuff non-conf opponents... what's the ATS record?

Regardless... FSU is simply an overrated team... they only play 3 or 4 regular season games against respectable opponents this year, and I would be very surprised if they do better than 2-2 ATS in those... moreover, I will be waiting all year with anticipation for the chance to bet against them when they get to the Final 4 playoffs! 

They will crush weak teams... but laying this many against a team like Okie St makes no sense to me... 
 
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Posted: #30
Shark Attack- I appreciate your opinions... BOL to you this season  

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:


Almost all of those games were against creampuff non-conf opponents... what's the ATS record?

Regardless... FSU is simply an overrated team... they only play 3 or 4 regular season games against respectable opponents this year, and I would be very surprised if they do better than 2-2 ATS in those... moreover, I will be waiting all year with anticipation for the chance to bet against them when they get to the Final 4 playoffs! 

They will crush weak teams... but laying this many against a team like Okie St makes no sense to me... 

I strongly disagree...Florida State is not overrated.   They still have tons of NFL talent on that roster.    This is not your typical Gundy Ok St Team.   They are inexperienced and in my opinion, in this matchup, way over their heads.

Florida State rolls...

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #32
FSU- 17
When Oklahoma State has the ball:
As Oklahoma State seeks another 10 win season it will be an uphill battle returning a Big 12 Conference low 8 starters. However, Oklahoma State does return JW Walsh who completed 57% of his passes in 8 games started a year ago . It will be difficult for this team to generate much offense through the air given that Oklahoma State does not return any WR with over 40 receptions versus an experienced secondary lead by Sophomore 2nd team USA TODAY All-American Jalen Ramsey . Look for Oklahoma State to try and establish  the ground game early against a less experienced but promising Florida St LB unit. 

Do not be surprised  if Oklahoma State is trailing in the first half that the tempo changes and  Florida State forces an interception or two in the early going. 

I do believe by years end that Oklahoma State will have a decent offense but just not enough experience, talent, or depth to compete against Florida States defense in this particular opener.

When Florida State has the ball:
With all the focus on the  returning Heisman Trophy winner, Florida States offense is predicated on the anchoring Offensive line that returns 5 seniors (4 of which were starters in 13'). If Florida State establishes the run early it will set up ample opportunities for Winston to be effective in the passing game against an incredibly inexperienced secondary who lost a lot from last years squad (i.e. Justin Gilbert ).  With Oklahoma State only returning 4 players on a defense that yielded 30 points or greater 5 times last year, look for FSU to score early and often.

Final Prediction: Florida State 51 Oklahoma State 17
  
 
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Posted: #33
I agree....also taking FSU TT over, whatever that may be. Is there a total for this game yet? I'll have to check.
 
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Posted: #34
Yep, 63-63.5 I'm seeing as a total
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by PaperMaker321:

FSU- 17
When Oklahoma State has the ball:
As Oklahoma State seeks another 10 win season it will be an uphill battle returning a Big 12 Conference low 8 starters. However, Oklahoma State does return JW Walsh who completed 57% of his passes in 8 games started a year ago . It will be difficult for this team to generate much offense through the air given that Oklahoma State does not return any WR with over 40 receptions versus an experienced secondary lead by Sophomore 2nd team USA TODAY All-American Jalen Ramsey . Look for Oklahoma State to try and establish  the ground game early against a less experienced but promising Florida St LB unit. 

Do not be surprised  if Oklahoma State is trailing in the first half that the tempo changes and  Florida State forces an interception or two in the early going. 

I do believe by years end that Oklahoma State will have a decent offense but just not enough experience, talent, or depth to compete against Florida States defense in this particular opener.

When Florida State has the ball:
With all the focus on the  returning Heisman Trophy winner, Florida States offense is predicated on the anchoring Offensive line that returns 5 seniors (4 of which were starters in 13'). If Florida State establishes the run early it will set up ample opportunities for Winston to be effective in the passing game against an incredibly inexperienced secondary who lost a lot from last years squad (i.e. Justin Gilbert ).  With Oklahoma State only returning 4 players on a defense that yielded 30 points or greater 5 times last year, look for FSU to score early and often.

Final Prediction: Florida State 51 Oklahoma State 17
  

 

I think you are right on, bro...I compare this matchup to FSU at Clemson last season...that game was over by half time.   Anyone who thinks FSU will be arrogant and not motivated, is mistaken....

LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by jusballin32:

I think if anyone controls the clock it will be FSU but they may hit the home run a time or two. With the running
backs, offensive line, and TE FSU can try to control this game early. Also, if OklaSt comes out in that spread offense as usual, that may not be good as FSU's defense is designed to take away the many options a true spread offense presents. FSU most likely will blitz, play man on the edge early and often. I think a big thing for FSU is their 3rd down offensive conversion rate as compared to last year. If FSU can convert at a 50%+ clip like last year, OklaSt may not have the ball much this game. And when they do, they need to score. Just my thoughts. GL on your plays fellas.

I like it
 
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Posted: #37
Longhorn- like the feedback & as you already know I totally agree
 
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Posted: #38
Bonus Play:
Atlanta-130 (Santana/Action)
Looks like a pretty solid play. These two teams are going in opposite directions:
Reds are 1-10 in last 11
Braves are 8-2 in last 10
E Santana is 3-0 last 3 starts
Leake is 0-2 in last 3 starts


I really like this pitching match up (Atlanta Leads the majors with 90 quality starts this season)

2 units
 
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Posted: #39
I am new to covers as well. I have been a football junkie all my life and have hit a 10 team parlay 3 times in the past 2 years.Like those picks, here are mine-  OLE MISS -10  NEB/FLA AT OVER 51  Tulsa-5 WASh ST. -8  GL  2 u all!
 
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Posted: #40
Agree. Fsu -17.5. 

FSU will score 42-65 pts

Ok st will score 0-21 pts

It is what it is. 

The line is depressed in favor of fsu at nuetral field and past reputation of ok st, their coach and their margins of past losses...

This is a cheap price. 

To say "if its a no brainer. Be careful". Is bad advice. 

Present the counter for ok st. The case for FSU is voluminous.  Among a list of mismatches, Winston will pick on young defensive backfield...alot.

I see a 55-14 type game. And will bet this heavy. 

Gluck....Im sure he is going to elaborate in his coming analysis!!
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by PaperMaker321:

Bonus Play:
Atlanta-130 (Santana/Action)
Looks like a pretty solid play. These two teams are going in opposite directions:
Reds are 1-10 in last 11
Braves are 8-2 in last 10
E Santana is 3-0 last 3 starts
Leake is 0-2 in last 3 starts





I really like this pitching match up (Atlanta Leads the majors with 90 quality starts this season)


2 units


Well this was a poor effort displayed by the braves last night... I am done trying to pick up units until football season now.
YTD:
Baseball- 0-1 (down 2 units)
Golf - 1-0 ( Up 5 units )
NFL Preseason 1-1 ( NA)


 
 
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Posted: #42

LSU -3 (bought .5 when line was at -3.5)

 

When Wisconsin has the ball:

As expected, Wisconsin will stick to the ground game behind Melvin Gordon and an experienced Offensive line. With Tanner McEvoy starting, It will be very difficult for Wisconsin to convert on 3rd and longs against what in my opinion is the best CB tandem in the SEC (White and Robinson). I believe Wisconsin will be able to move the ball on the ground but the Tigers D will hold their running game in tack under what should be an improved John Chavis D. 

 

When LSU has the ball: 

Wisconsin is forced to replace their whole front 7 this season and with LSU returning one of the best Offensive lines in the country it will be difficult to slow down this ground attack. By the second half, Wisconsin’s front seven will be worn down and I see LSU capitalizing on their inexperience.

Brandon Harris will eventually be a very special player, if LSU’s running game can put him in 3rd and shorts, 3rd and mediums, or just advantageous passing downs I  believe he will be able to make a few plays either through the air or with his legs. Between Jennings and Harris it should give the LSU offense enough fire power to get past Wisconsin if turnovers are limited.

In conclusion, this is a play predicated upon LSU’s experienced O-line & strong RB unit versus Wisconsin’s unproven front seven. This is not a very good spot to open the season for Wisconsin with what they are returning on defense.

Expect this one to be close going into half time but the Tigers pull away in the fourth.

 

LSU 27 Wisconsin 17

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