Quote Originally Posted by a1_tellem:
Philly,
I understand your concerns with Iowa and Ark as well as they are my lat two teams to make the cut for this parlay. However, to answer your question, those two games still fall into the criteria I look for when playing these games.
What I look for in these games after 3 years of playing these teasers are the following:
1. Power 5 school vs FBS School (Pref SEC/BIG 10 because of physicality)
2. Top 40 defense
3. Has to be playing at home
4. Either an efficient running game,do everything-QB or High Eff Passing attack
5.Good recent History/stats playing against other group 5 schools
If the team I'm betting on fits those 5 looks then I move on to their opponent and grade off of these things:
1.4 Year Recruiting Class
2. Recent History vs. Power 5 schools
3. Ability (or lack thereof) to move the football
4. Offensive and Defensive line weight and Recruiting level
5. QB play
One thing I've learned and we've all seen with the new playoff system is the necessity to win these cake games on your schedule by a ZILLION points because a close game vs a scrub can come back to hurt you in the style point department. So recently in the last three years there's been a bit of added incentive to really kick these group 5 and fcs teams fools.
One thing I've also learned in a lot of these games in the past is that it's not really about the ability of the favorite to score 40, 50 points as much as it's about how bad the other teams are and how many points they GIVE away. Alot of these schools are going to be playing in front of the biggest crowds in theyre life, where it is louder than it's every been and the opponents are bigger, faster and stronger than theyve ever been or will be all year. Fla hasn't been a big scorer in tradition but theyre last 3 or 4 games vs group 5 teams they have won by an average of over 45 ppg. So if you can stay away from playing good non power 5 school's you stand better chance of them just laying down. Other than Appalachian state and possibly LA tech (massive roster overhaul for LA tech this year) the games I like fit that criteria. The size, depth and athleticism usually just kills these teams that dont have some special high efficiency/offense to catch you off guard with. And app does not have that, they prefer power rush which didnt bode well with Clemson last year and not sure it will with Tenn. We'll see.
Jason,
I apologize parlay 7 pays 4.5 to 1 so I bet 1,000 won 3,500 + my money back so 4,500.
They have decent parlay cards at all the casinos that have a CG technology book as well as at LVH.
Again not saying that this is a holeless approach or that its even statistically intelligent but it fits for me and I like this approach.
Awesome, I look for the power 5 vs. group 5 as well. Also completely agree only taking a top 40 defense...any power 5 school can put up points, but its the defense that ultimately beats the spread.
Good luck with your plays, look forward to sharing more insight throughout the season. Nice to have found someone on here with a similar strategy.
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