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WEEK 10

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:



Not sure where you are coming from with 20 points when the line is BYU -12 and the game is being played in San Jose. You care to enlighten me???

in other words BYU would be favored by 17ish on a neutral field (which is close to 20) and he doesn't think that is justified so since the line looks high he says you may be on to something 

thats how I took what he said 
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Posted: #27
Gracias amigo!
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:



Forget that man....let's talk LONGHORNS.....................
  *would LOVE to play them this week.....LOVE to play a desperate team...that FINALLY has a chance to take out their frustrations at home...... on a blow-up doll of sorry azz team.............

BUT.....not sure they could score 40 if Kansas D doesn't even take the field.............
  *will be looking at a halftime time play tho of major proportions.........no shocker if Kansas get's up early.....as Horn confidence shot to helll..................... 

Rockets are a really solid team TY......I think BG might be the better play tho....they should beat the livin' helll outta Ohio
  *N Illinois'  history as an extremely tough road team must be factored in......as mentioned by that Pecador......18-2 SU /16-4 ATS on MAC road....give or take

BOL this week buddy......................


   


Bro, I would stay away from my Longhorns until they prove that they can score.   Sure, Kansas is a bad team, but there is something missing on execution and gameplan for our offense.    This game could be 49 to 0, down to a single digit win for Texas.  Kansas is the only win that everyone is predicting for us.   Big time No Play for me, since I am a homer, and I am disgusted with the product that we have on the field.   But, its games like this that differentiates elite cappers like you from the rest of the schmo degenerates.     Texas is playing at home with their backs against the wall.      GL this week!
LonghornHoosier
 
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Posted: #29
added Kan St +10' 1H.....small
  *Buffalo -2' not bad if desperate for action ........back later......
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:



Bro, I would stay away from my Longhorns until they prove that they can score.   Sure, Kansas is a bad team, but there is something missing on execution and gameplan for our offense.    This game could be 49 to 0, down to a single digit win for Texas.  Kansas is the only win that everyone is predicting for us.   Big time No Play for me, since I am a homer, and I am disgusted with the product that we have on the field.   But, its games like this that differentiates elite cappers like you from the rest of the schmo degenerates.     Texas is playing at home with their backs against the wall.      GL this week!




I'll (probably) wait for some in-game action......the no-show at Iowa St should have provided a little more value here....25 or so?
  *but unless there is some internal issue....we should see a nice romp > followed by incredibly wild-azz celebrations.....Charlie enjoying a Gatorade bath > goalposts torn down....tower lit up orange etc................  

MATCH-UP / situations.....as always the key
  *a casual glance at their schedule  >>>

Is there a common thread to their struggles?
  *AT ND
  *AT TCU
  *AT Iowa St....tries to beat them at their own game (ground/pound)....at their place....QB switch / coaching change gave them energy Horns didn't match ....wtf

At HOME / neutral.....woulda / shoulda beat Okie St....CAL....beat a desperate Kan St team (that owns Texas > Major Applewhite still has bruises I hear....)....beat the crap outta Oklahoma

SO......at HOME......they can't handle Kansas?
 NOTE:  * their LAST (solid)  CHANCE for a W....TT will be tough
                 (their last game > Horns with BAYLOR on deck)
               *note there are only 5 teams or so... worse than Kansas

I'll stick loosely with my 3 game plan for Texas...fade at Iowa St (just teased Iowa St / under < after missing soft opener)....play vs Kansas > fade at WV.....won't necessarily recommend here...
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
 
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Posted: #31
you have helped me grow my bankroll  
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:



Not sure where you are coming from with 20 points when the line is BYU -12 and the game is being played in San Jose. You care to enlighten me???


easy.....

IF.....12 looks about right .....BYU is a no play....

IF.....you like BYU as a solid one unit play....line is about 3 pts off
  *meaning spread here should be 14'-15

IF....you like BYU as a strong play.....which it sounds like you do right?.....that means line here should be around 17'-18 .....>> which implies BYU is about 20 pts better


As a man of the people.....I guess I will also tell you why you like them here as well...........................................


SJSU:  GREAT pass D?.....#1 in nation?
  *teams they have played can't pass

  RUN D.....is WEAK (5.2/rush....225/g)
  *and they can't bring heat (only 7 sacks all year)

Look at their resume....each W vs a flawed / overrated team
  *at UNLV not bad.....but Rebel QB out there....
  *played solid / BALANCED team?....got killed.....30-7 at home by SDSU
  *decent showing at Auburn....but lost by 14 at Oregon St ....wins over New Mexico ....Fresno......
 
BYU?.....with TERRIBLE injury issues
  *6-2 SU / ATS vs.....Nebraska....Boise....UCLA.....Michigan...much improved UConn....Cinn....etc

BYU QB has played hurt.....now close to 100%.....top RB Hine should return here ....they have been off for 2 weeks really as they played WAGNER last on 10/24
  *note : looks like both OG's are out.....as is LT .
  *for SJSU top WR Winston is OFY

Looks like BYU should be able to still move the ball here....running game opens up passing......SJSU's strength is their running game (RB Ervin realy good).....but Mormons tough vs the run and MUCH more physical than SJSU >>>.. KEY .......(8 sacks vs Cinn)

TECHNICAL issues favor neither.....
  *BYU / Bronco only 0-6 ATS after a bye (he works them really hard > lot of hitting / tackling during bye week)....a weak road favorite too....SJSU has covered only 1/11 as a dog....and tend to fade late....2-8 ATS in Nov
  *situational?.....BYU with at Mizzou next

While Vegas says 12....now 14
  *Sagarin says 14.....Massey says 19'

I'm gonna say you were CORRECT....
  *at 12 BYU looks like a strong play.....still value at 14

I don't like playing the road team on weekdays myself.....especially with a (possible) look-a-head issue....esp as a big favorite vs a team that can run......so a pass for me....but will look closely for an in-game / halftime opp....esp if BYU starts slowly as they are prone to do.........BYU also not bad in a ML parlay.....highly unlikely they lose this one SU.................  
   .
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Posted: #33
I'm looking seriously at SMU +13 now as well.  Potentially biting on SMU FH TT O 10.  Good # for a solid offense.

Curious to see how Temple responds to what can be considered a "season derailing loss".  Like that Matt Davis is a solid dual-threat QB (see DeShone Kizer's stats lw).  One concern I have is how Chad Morris is going to keep these guys motivated at 1-7, no bowl berth, etc.  Last they played was an SMU win 59-49 but that was under June Jones and it was Matt Rhule's first year.

Some injuries for Temple:
-Kyle Friend, Center
-Jahad Thomas, RB
-Ventell Bryant, WR
-Dion Dawkins, OT
-Tavon Young, CB
-Kip Patton, 2nd string TE (OUT)

Its interesting because teams (other than Baylor and TCU, who are in their own league) aren't tearing SMU up through the air its been mostly running game.  This year no team has more than 27 pass attempts against SMU (James Madison also joins TCU/Baylor as the exception with 33) and they haven't given up 300 passing yards to anyone this season.  

Rushing, a different story: teams avg 46 rush attempts/game vs SMU this year and SMU giving up 258.5 rush yds/gme.  

Last point, in the 2013 SMU/Temple game PJ Walker did start and threw the ball 37 times while they ran it 36 times.  Based on the above stats and play calling this year from Temple, safe to say they'll run the ball alot more in this game.  

BOL this week BA and everyone else 


 
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Posted: #34
Nice write up Michfan15!
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Posted: #35
So FWIW I ran all the #'s going back to 2011 when Morris was OC at Clemson.  Joe Craddock was on coaching staff with him at Clemson from 2012-2014 in Player Development and Grad assistant role and Morris brought him with to SMU where he is the OC (young guy 30).

Obviously Clemson with Taj Boyd, Cole Stoudt, and Deshaun Watson towards the end of Morris's tenure were VERY different teams than what he has at SMU but this was more of a gauge of the Morris system.  That being said from 2011-2014:

In 53 games only 6 games did Clemson score LESS THAN 10 points by halftime.  Nearly 89%, but again it may not be a completley true comparison comparing 2011-2014 clemson to 2015 SMU, just a look at the system.  

If you include Morris in 2015 and his SMU games.  You have 61 games, and 2 more games that failed to reach at least 10 points by half (oddly enough the win wk 2 v North Texas and USF).  So 8 games out of Morris's 61 since 2011.  

Phil Snow (Temple DC) seems to be doing a solid job since taking over in 2013 (when Rhuel started as HC).  Defense has improved in every category each year, EXCEPT, 2014 pass D was giving up 187 pass yds/game, this year they've let up through the air now giving up 226 pass yds/game.  Yikes.  

SMU FH TT still at 10 odds moved to +110.

Any insight, comments much appreciated.  
 
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Posted: #36
M15
I took SMU +6 1st half, and TT 10O, as well.

To me SMU has seemed like a 1st half team.  Now I havent watched them to a full extent bc....  well.... i wanted to watch other games, but at an initial glance, maybe something warranted...  so I dove in this week bc its the only LIVE GAME, my book is offering in a "continuous" fashion, on a Friday night.

Below Ive listed the games in reverse order.

Halftime Score (SMU),  Gm Sprd, (assumed 1st 1/2 sprd)
v TULS....23...(21),  +1...........(evn) 
@ USF....17....(7),  +12........(+6.0)
@ HOU....28...(21), +25.....(+12.5)
v ECU......21...(23), +6..........(+3.0)
v JMU......17....(14),  -3..........(-1.5)
@ TCU....28...(17),  +37.....(+16.5)
v NTX........6....(7),   -6...........(-3.0)
v BAY......28....(21),  +36....(+16.5)

I guess when looking at this, knowing they are a bad team... I was using the 21yo mentality.  Its still a game, and when you take the field, you are still invincible.  The "lay down" mentality usually doesnt kick in until the 2nd half.
And generally speaking, they score and cover the first half...less some games they were favored in - Eeeek.
It may be fair to say the NTx game came after a Baylor throttle, and USF was on the road.  (But that is just picking spots that support this theory, and NOT, bc i didnt watch, the real story).
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

So FWIW I ran all the #'s going back to 2011 when Morris was OC at Clemson.  Joe Craddock was on coaching staff with him at Clemson from 2012-2014 in Player Development and Grad assistant role and Morris brought him with to SMU where he is the OC (young guy 30).

Obviously Clemson with Taj Boyd, Cole Stoudt, and Deshaun Watson towards the end of Morris's tenure were VERY different teams than what he has at SMU but this was more of a gauge of the Morris system.  That being said from 2011-2014:

In 53 games only 6 games did Clemson score LESS THAN 10 points by halftime.  Nearly 89%, but again it may not be a completley true comparison comparing 2011-2014 clemson to 2015 SMU, just a look at the system.  

If you include Morris in 2015 and his SMU games.  You have 61 games, and 2 more games that failed to reach at least 10 points by half (oddly enough the win wk 2 v North Texas and USF).  So 8 games out of Morris's 61 since 2011.  

Phil Snow (Temple DC) seems to be doing a solid job since taking over in 2013 (when Rhuel started as HC).  Defense has improved in every category each year, EXCEPT, 2014 pass D was giving up 187 pass yds/game, this year they've let up through the air now giving up 226 pass yds/game.  Yikes.  

SMU FH TT still at 10 odds moved to +110.

Any insight, comments much appreciated.  


damm man you want SMU BAD.....................

  *here's what's gonna happen....SMU is gonna get up 1H....Temple will come back and win a close game...13 looks good to me....in-game / halftime only for me .....Ponies early > Temple big (maybe) late
 
  *Owls...(seem anyway) to play to the level of their opponent....
    check UMass boxscore......Charlotte is just TOO bad to compete
 
*note Ponies have been UP most games 1st qtr....but 10-14 vs TCU.......7-10 vs JM.....14-28 vs Baylor

I kinda like SMU too ....look for reasons to play them....that schedule is ridiculous......
  *GOOD THING for Pony fans?.....with that record Morris should stay put at least one more year

Found something interesting checking out SMU Red Zone D...
              *TD % of course.......the WORST RZ D in CFB?....
                 LSU........allowed 14 TD / 17 trips
                 *Bama #26 / Bama RZ O #69

The weather is nasty here.....I'm 20 min away > still might go ha
  *crowd should be VERY light.....it should take Temple awhile to wake up.............
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Posted: #38
UW.......did this ill advised teaser ...........
  *several nice options for a 10 pt'er this week....LSU +17....Tulsa -6'..etc.........as long as you hit a (very) high %....play small / sparingly....and only involve teams you like anyway.....I don't think they're a bad idea..........necessarily.....this one will hit FOR SURE ha

  1. 11/6/2015 11:30 PM College Football 323 BYU* -2½  vs San Jose State
  2. 11/7/2015 7:30 PM College Football 339 South Florida* +14  vs East Carolina
  3. 11/7/2015 3:30 PM College Football 391 Wisconsin* -½  vs Maryland

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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Beechernic:

M15
I took SMU +6 1st half, and TT 10O, as well.

To me SMU has seemed like a 1st half team.  Now I havent watched them to a full extent bc....  well.... i wanted to watch other games, but at an initial glance, maybe something warranted...  so I dove in this week bc its the only LIVE GAME, my book is offering in a "continuous" fashion, on a Friday night.

Below Ive listed the games in reverse order.

Halftime Score (SMU),  Gm Sprd, (assumed 1st 1/2 sprd)
v TULS....23...(21),  +1...........(evn) 
@ USF....17....(7),  +12........(+6.0)
@ HOU....28...(21), +25.....(+12.5)
v ECU......21...(23), +6..........(+3.0)
v JMU......17....(14),  -3..........(-1.5)
@ TCU....28...(17),  +37.....(+16.5)
v NTX........6....(7),   -6...........(-3.0)
v BAY......28....(21),  +36....(+16.5)

I guess when looking at this, knowing they are a bad team... I was using the 21yo mentality.  Its still a game, and when you take the field, you are still invincible.  The "lay down" mentality usually doesnt kick in until the 2nd half.
And generally speaking, they score and cover the first half...less some games they were favored in - Eeeek.
It may be fair to say the NTx game came after a Baylor throttle, and USF was on the road.  (But that is just picking spots that support this theory, and NOT, bc i didnt watch, the real story).


Looks like for whatever reason..........
  *Temple has come to play wtf.....good man BC.....BOL this week.............
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Posted: #40
I see one line that looks way off. Utah getting a point from Washington? I know all about Jake Browning because I saw play in a few High School games. Kid is the real deal but still to young. Give him two more years and should be a pro prospect. Injured last week but still to raw. Wash does have a very good D but I can't figure this line. Would think Utah -7. What do you think BA. Many thanks for all your work.
 
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Posted: #41
BA--if you get a chance, feel free to elaborate a bit more on Iowa -7 tomorrow. I'm liking it, but that's as high as it goes for me. I see the Hawkeye stable will be full with three headed monster at running back with their leading rusher from last year back healthy. Plus their defense has been legit. Investing further....admittedly I read more on the analytics than the names and faces. Not saying it's right...what's your thoughts??? 
 
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Posted: #42
Beech nice hit 2x 

BA - u know I love to dig deep my man.  Gotta hit those angles that don't seem obvious and hopefully others (meaning the books) aren't thinking about.  Lets get it tomorrow 
 
 
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Posted: #43
*added a couple.....like several a little bit.....none a lot really / maybe shoulda taken the week off........
     $   do like Ariz St at 3 (added 11/5 > initially bet small ASU -1 so will use that line for record purposes....)  


ONE UNIT

Ohio St  -23
B Green  - 14  W
Toledo  -7     L
Troy  -6
*Ariz St  +3
*Duke   +7'

smaller

Iowa   -6
Tulsa   -14
UNLV  -6'
Marshall  +6
*Wyoming   +10'
*Fla St  +10'



small   Kan St +10' 1H....Texas -28.....OU -24....Wisky -10
                   L
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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