week 10

34-22

1-0

EMU +6 

UTAH ST  +15.5

UTST +17.5

Boise St. +3

SAN JOSE +9

Air Force +5.5 and +180 

HOUSTON+13.5

PITT +2.5

S.ALA +18

34-22

1-0

EMU +6 

UTAH ST  +15.5

UTST +17.5

Boise St. +3

SAN JOSE +9

Air Force +5.5 and +180 

Tenn -2

HOUSTON+13.5

PITT +2.5

S.ALA +18

Very logical, and balanced approach, imo.  I don't take the time to dive this deep into games involving many of the small to mid programs so I may hook my wagon to some of your picks, especially when they are mid-week games that I may catch a quarter or two on TV.  (And will particularly look at some of your picks on the larger games on Saturdays to check my analysis, or see what I may have missed.)  You are right that while stats/final scores can point you in the right direction but that isn't the whole picture.  Some of the areas you look at are ones I put value on as well.  Thanks for sharing your approach, very enlightening and valuable.  Keep up the good work, much respect.

thank you for taking the time to make a kind and thoughtful comment.  Much appreciated and good luck on your tickets this week.

Army has 9 wins against Air Force the last 40 times they have matched up.  This does not mean that this is the sole reason for my play but it helps knowing that the line is off based on Army strong showing again poor and DII teams.  This is a real team they are facing and they rarely win this game. Off of losses I can see Army’s focus being a bit more motivated and on point but they are up against a real team this week and that real team will be ready to kick their azz.  Air Force will look much better after this game.  

AF game canceled

That sucks, that was too easy.  Maybe not but I really thought I had the right side.  Many more games on the way though.

Thanks for the update!

BOL the rest of the week! Good call on EMU 

BYU @ Houston line was -3

BYU @ Boise line is -3 

I will reference Sagarin's ratings:

Houston's rating is 56th @73.41 

Boise is ranked 9th @87.09 

BYU is ranked 6th @90.46

The way I evaluate  this line is Boise at 9th is getting the same amount of points as 56th ranked Houston.  This doesn't guarantee anything but the valuation Boise has much tighter chance to close the deal here.

The valuation also has a calculated line of pick em if one assumes 3 points for home field.  

Your take it means more to you that BYU has played many games more then Boise.

My take is there is lot of game film for a good team like Boise to adjust to.  BYU also has had an easy schedule.  The question to me is BYU is facing a huge game on the road with at least a fair or bad line according to Sagarin. Its played on the field but I like a strong Home team with a valued line.

I also have BYU rated less because of their soft schedule and will adjust accordingly after this real tough game.  So my rating its even a better bet on Boise.

I throw out  all the previous stats out the window in my opinion BYU competition stinks so far.  I dont give those stats any value in this game.  All those stats support is a high rating for BYU.   

BYU is 3-7 straight up in this series and 0-5 @Boise

overall 34-23

this week 1-1 

EMU +6 

UTAH ST  +15.5

UTST +17.5

Boise St. +3

SAN JOSE +9

Air Force +5.5 and +180 

Tenn -2

HOUSTON+13.5

PITT +2.5

S.ALA +18

overall 34-23

this week 1-1 

EMU +6 

UTAH ST  +15.5

UTST +17.5

Boise St. +3

SAN JOSE +9

Tenn -2

HOUSTON+13.5

PITT +2.5

S.ALA +18

BOL the rest of the way spottie. Utah State just didn't generate any offense. Easy cover if they were just average.

@sportschat

 Nevada was bigger and more physical.  It is just one game.  

overall 35-24

this week 2-2 

Boise St. +3 No excuses 

SAN JOSE +9 Nice winner

Tenn -2

HOUSTON+13.5

PITT +2.5

S.ALA +18

week4-4

overall 37-26