Recap of last week – was 2-1 (plus 1 star or plus 0.7 with juice). Nothing great but still positive as I didn’t think the week was that great. Looking at the picks I think that I was fortunate to get Iowa – Minnesota should have covered and maybe won. Unbelievably the issue was the Iowa defense. Maryland I feel was the right play but too many mistakes on their end – they moved the ball pretty well and were close in yardage (451-481). So I think they cancel out – got one I shouldn’t have and lost won that probably should have won. Penn st under was obviously the right side. On to this week. Couple initial picks below – will provide write ups later. Will start with a MAC game since I think the line will move
2* Buff-NI Under 64.5 – this line will drop – this is a style and weather play. NI runs the ball 63% of the time and Buffalo 59%. Weather is projected for wind gusts up to 34mph – if you look now it looks like the wind will be over 20mph and up near 30. High winds the day before and after so being 2 days out should hold. Neither team defends the run very well however with the wind it should help them load the box more. Both teams have gone under that total in 4 of 6 MAC games. MAC unders come with risk so not sure I would never rate one a high star but this one looks solid and I am surprised it hasn’t dropped yet. I think maybe people aren’t seeing the wind but it will start moving in the next day. With 2 running teams and the high wind I think this stays under.
Prediction 47 pts
3* Illinois plus 12.5 – A little surprised at this line. I thought it would be around 8 so I expect it to drop. Illinois will be off a bye and they are still playing for a bowl. They have shown they can beat good teams with wins at Penn St and at Minn. They have actually played better on the road. Iowa is better with Padilla but he did have a couple passes that could have been picked last week. Iowa still can’t run the ball and their def hasn’t looked as dominate. I think Minn gave Illinois a blueprint for how to run on them and I expect Illinois to keep this close and it wouldn’t be surprising if they won.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Recap of last week – was 2-1 (plus 1 star or plus 0.7 with juice). Nothing great but still positive as I didn’t think the week was that great. Looking at the picks I think that I was fortunate to get Iowa – Minnesota should have covered and maybe won. Unbelievably the issue was the Iowa defense. Maryland I feel was the right play but too many mistakes on their end – they moved the ball pretty well and were close in yardage (451-481). So I think they cancel out – got one I shouldn’t have and lost won that probably should have won. Penn st under was obviously the right side. On to this week. Couple initial picks below – will provide write ups later. Will start with a MAC game since I think the line will move
2* Buff-NI Under 64.5 – this line will drop – this is a style and weather play. NI runs the ball 63% of the time and Buffalo 59%. Weather is projected for wind gusts up to 34mph – if you look now it looks like the wind will be over 20mph and up near 30. High winds the day before and after so being 2 days out should hold. Neither team defends the run very well however with the wind it should help them load the box more. Both teams have gone under that total in 4 of 6 MAC games. MAC unders come with risk so not sure I would never rate one a high star but this one looks solid and I am surprised it hasn’t dropped yet. I think maybe people aren’t seeing the wind but it will start moving in the next day. With 2 running teams and the high wind I think this stays under.
Prediction 47 pts
3* Illinois plus 12.5 – A little surprised at this line. I thought it would be around 8 so I expect it to drop. Illinois will be off a bye and they are still playing for a bowl. They have shown they can beat good teams with wins at Penn St and at Minn. They have actually played better on the road. Iowa is better with Padilla but he did have a couple passes that could have been picked last week. Iowa still can’t run the ball and their def hasn’t looked as dominate. I think Minn gave Illinois a blueprint for how to run on them and I expect Illinois to keep this close and it wouldn’t be surprising if they won.
5* Ohio St Team Total Over 42.5 – I don’t see how Michigan St slows down this offense. Michigan State is the worst pass defense in the nation. They r last in the big ten in pass plays over 10 yards (11 more than the next team which is MD) and second to last in pass plays over 30 yards (only Rutgers worse). They rely on their def line to get pressure but good luck against the OSU line and no crowd noise to help. Ohio St went through their rough patch on offense against Penn St and Neb – now coming off a thrashing of Purdue where even Brohm said they were lucky to only give up 59 they appear to be rolling heading into the final few games. They look like an NFL offense and make it look easy at times. Against Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and IU they looked unstoppable. I would argue that each of those teams except MD has a better defense than State. Look for Ohio State to keep it rolling and put up a whole this week. I think State will score some to so I expect Ohio State to not take the foot off the gas till late.
Prediction: 62 pts
5* Ohio St – Mich St FH over 34.5 – Ohio St is a very good first half team. I think teams struggle to adjust to their speed and have had several games where they basically score on every first half possession. I think each team can get 7 possessions and I do think State can score. Reason I rate the FH higher is the only way I see the game going under is if Ohio st gets up and slows down in the second half. Look for a lot points – similar to last week.
Prediction: 52 pts
3* Ohio St FH -10.5 – I think the over is the better play but still like Ohio St in FH. I think they can go over themselves but also there is risk that Mich St scores. If State scores 13 or more then it has to go over for Ohio St to cover. I think Ohio St can get 7 possessions and State will be lucky to get 2 stops.
Prediction: Ohio St by 18
3* Wisc -8 – I feel I have been on Nebraska this year and this is my first bet against them since week 1. Surprised this line is dropping. I have liked Neb all year and think they have talent but now they have 7 losses and I don’t think the bye is a good thing. During the bye they did extend Frost’s contract and he also let go 4 offensive coaches. The focus seems to be shifting to next year and they also lost Domann for the year. Now they go on the road to play a nasty Wisc team. I don’t think you will see the best of Neb this week. Wisc has been rolling and their defense is on another level. The last 2 weeks they have shown balance as Mertz has thrown for over 220 yds in both games – scary seeing them with balance. This will be the best offense they have faced since Purdue. Wisc is very aggressive on defense and will pressure with any of their 4 linebackers. They don’t blitz a lot but are very good at pressuring with 4 by using stunts and disguising who is coming. Very tough for a young line like Neb who has struggled all year. Martinez has frequently been under pressure during the year and he hasn’t appeared 100% the past few games. Now he is going against one of the top defenses in the nation. I think they will be all over him and get a couple mistakes. Wisc also has a kicking edge. Neb stinks at fgs which means they will need to rely on tds against a team that doesn’t give up much. Neb has kept games close all year but I don’t think they do this week and Wisc shows why they are the second best team in the conference.
Prediction: Wisconsin by 16
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5* Ohio St Team Total Over 42.5 – I don’t see how Michigan St slows down this offense. Michigan State is the worst pass defense in the nation. They r last in the big ten in pass plays over 10 yards (11 more than the next team which is MD) and second to last in pass plays over 30 yards (only Rutgers worse). They rely on their def line to get pressure but good luck against the OSU line and no crowd noise to help. Ohio St went through their rough patch on offense against Penn St and Neb – now coming off a thrashing of Purdue where even Brohm said they were lucky to only give up 59 they appear to be rolling heading into the final few games. They look like an NFL offense and make it look easy at times. Against Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and IU they looked unstoppable. I would argue that each of those teams except MD has a better defense than State. Look for Ohio State to keep it rolling and put up a whole this week. I think State will score some to so I expect Ohio State to not take the foot off the gas till late.
Prediction: 62 pts
5* Ohio St – Mich St FH over 34.5 – Ohio St is a very good first half team. I think teams struggle to adjust to their speed and have had several games where they basically score on every first half possession. I think each team can get 7 possessions and I do think State can score. Reason I rate the FH higher is the only way I see the game going under is if Ohio st gets up and slows down in the second half. Look for a lot points – similar to last week.
Prediction: 52 pts
3* Ohio St FH -10.5 – I think the over is the better play but still like Ohio St in FH. I think they can go over themselves but also there is risk that Mich St scores. If State scores 13 or more then it has to go over for Ohio St to cover. I think Ohio St can get 7 possessions and State will be lucky to get 2 stops.
Prediction: Ohio St by 18
3* Wisc -8 – I feel I have been on Nebraska this year and this is my first bet against them since week 1. Surprised this line is dropping. I have liked Neb all year and think they have talent but now they have 7 losses and I don’t think the bye is a good thing. During the bye they did extend Frost’s contract and he also let go 4 offensive coaches. The focus seems to be shifting to next year and they also lost Domann for the year. Now they go on the road to play a nasty Wisc team. I don’t think you will see the best of Neb this week. Wisc has been rolling and their defense is on another level. The last 2 weeks they have shown balance as Mertz has thrown for over 220 yds in both games – scary seeing them with balance. This will be the best offense they have faced since Purdue. Wisc is very aggressive on defense and will pressure with any of their 4 linebackers. They don’t blitz a lot but are very good at pressuring with 4 by using stunts and disguising who is coming. Very tough for a young line like Neb who has struggled all year. Martinez has frequently been under pressure during the year and he hasn’t appeared 100% the past few games. Now he is going against one of the top defenses in the nation. I think they will be all over him and get a couple mistakes. Wisc also has a kicking edge. Neb stinks at fgs which means they will need to rely on tds against a team that doesn’t give up much. Neb has kept games close all year but I don’t think they do this week and Wisc shows why they are the second best team in the conference.
Additional point on the Ohio St picks. In the games against MD, Rutgers, IU, and Purdue - Ohio St had 24 first half possessions and scored 22 tds and 2 fgs - that is unheard of. They had 2 possessions where they ran out clock at half so they don’t count. Out of those 4 teams who does Mich St have a better def then - certainly not Purdue and not IU. I think Rutgers is even better which leaves only MD as possibly worse. Now you have a focused Ohio st team at home with no weather issues / give them 6-7 possessions in the first half and see what happens. They have so much talent that receivers get wide open - or they throw short passes where they can run for yardage then mix in a handoff to a future heisman candidate or end arounds to any of their top 3 receivers who will probably all be first round picks behind an off line that is loaded with nfl players. They r in full throttle right now. Only a very talented def has any chance to slow them right now - state is not one of them.
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Additional point on the Ohio St picks. In the games against MD, Rutgers, IU, and Purdue - Ohio St had 24 first half possessions and scored 22 tds and 2 fgs - that is unheard of. They had 2 possessions where they ran out clock at half so they don’t count. Out of those 4 teams who does Mich St have a better def then - certainly not Purdue and not IU. I think Rutgers is even better which leaves only MD as possibly worse. Now you have a focused Ohio st team at home with no weather issues / give them 6-7 possessions in the first half and see what happens. They have so much talent that receivers get wide open - or they throw short passes where they can run for yardage then mix in a handoff to a future heisman candidate or end arounds to any of their top 3 receivers who will probably all be first round picks behind an off line that is loaded with nfl players. They r in full throttle right now. Only a very talented def has any chance to slow them right now - state is not one of them.
3* Illinois plus 12.5 – Bielema won’t coach this game however I don’t think that will have much impact. He doesn’t call plays on off or def. It doesn’t seem to have impacted the line much – maybe it causes more to take Iowa. There are some spreads at 13 out there – I got 12.5.
Illinois – They are coming off a big win and now have a legit chance to get to a bowl if they win this week since they have Northwestern next week. They have a lot of super seniors, are pretty healthy, and are off a bye so I expect good energy from them. Peters has played his best ball the past 2 games at QB (21-29 for 270yds and a 3-0 ratio) – he won’t light it up but has made passes when needed as they are a run heavy team. Iowa has a very good run def but Illinois has shown it can run against Neb, Minn, and Penn St who are also solid. They also ran for more yds last year against Iowa than anyone else did – diff scheme then but they have the basically the same off line back. Only 1 team in the big ten has not given up more than 24 pts in a conf game – that is Illinois – I bet nobody reading this would guess that. I was on Walters early in the year but the def has settled in and he is doing a really good job. This team is third best in big ten in not turning the ball over so they do a good job taking care of the ball and have good kickers. Iowa had success early with getting turnovers and they rely on that – when they don’t get them they struggle. Illinois has won their last 2 road games at Penn St and Minn where they controlled the line of scrimmage in both games. They also should have won at Purdue – so they are 2-1 on the road in conf and all 3 teams Iowa has played as well. Purdue destroyed Iowa, Penn St was on their way till Clifford got hurt, and Minn controlled the line of scrimmage and gained over 400 yds but lost. Illinois will believe they can win and should hang in this one.
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Longer write up on Illinois
3* Illinois plus 12.5 – Bielema won’t coach this game however I don’t think that will have much impact. He doesn’t call plays on off or def. It doesn’t seem to have impacted the line much – maybe it causes more to take Iowa. There are some spreads at 13 out there – I got 12.5.
Illinois – They are coming off a big win and now have a legit chance to get to a bowl if they win this week since they have Northwestern next week. They have a lot of super seniors, are pretty healthy, and are off a bye so I expect good energy from them. Peters has played his best ball the past 2 games at QB (21-29 for 270yds and a 3-0 ratio) – he won’t light it up but has made passes when needed as they are a run heavy team. Iowa has a very good run def but Illinois has shown it can run against Neb, Minn, and Penn St who are also solid. They also ran for more yds last year against Iowa than anyone else did – diff scheme then but they have the basically the same off line back. Only 1 team in the big ten has not given up more than 24 pts in a conf game – that is Illinois – I bet nobody reading this would guess that. I was on Walters early in the year but the def has settled in and he is doing a really good job. This team is third best in big ten in not turning the ball over so they do a good job taking care of the ball and have good kickers. Iowa had success early with getting turnovers and they rely on that – when they don’t get them they struggle. Illinois has won their last 2 road games at Penn St and Minn where they controlled the line of scrimmage in both games. They also should have won at Purdue – so they are 2-1 on the road in conf and all 3 teams Iowa has played as well. Purdue destroyed Iowa, Penn St was on their way till Clifford got hurt, and Minn controlled the line of scrimmage and gained over 400 yds but lost. Illinois will believe they can win and should hang in this one.
Iowa – We are definitely at a point in the season where teams are who they are – meaning Iowa just isn’t good on offense. I took them last week as I expected them to have one of their better offensive games and pt wise they did with 27 but still only ran for 71 yds and had a couple passes that could have been picked. Minn outgained them by over 130 yds. Iowa has only ran for over 100 yds in 3 of their last 6 games – their off line just hasn’t played very well. Padilla looked ok last week and I think he is probably a better option than Petras however he did have a couple bad throws he got away with. I don’t think it matters who starts this week but it looks like Padilla will. Iowa still has a good defense but they have not looked like the dominate def they were early on. They have given up over 350 yds in 3 of the past 4 games (and would have been 4 of 5 if Clifford didn’t leave hurt). They also have more than 1 takeaway in 1 of the last 4 (two of those they had 0). Their def line hasn’t looked great and I have felt they haven’t really controlled the line of scrimmage and the def is second to last in sacks in conf games. Now they play a team that is pretty good at the line of scrimmage on both sides, doesn’t turn the ball over, and can match them with field position.
Outlook – I mentioned in the initial write up I was surprised at this line – I would put this out at 7 or 8 and even with that I would look at Illinois. I don’t think Iowa is that great of a team – solid of course but not a team to lay 12 pts - if you just look at the Northwestern game that is good indication. They couldn’t put that team away and ended up getting outgained and only winning by 5 – Northwestern is not a good team. The common opponents I mentioned above all show Illinois played them better than Iowa – the only one I didn’t mention was Wisc and they both got drilled in that one – stats look a lot better for Iowa in that one but neither team was in that game. The key for me in this game is the line of scrimmage – Illinois is actually pretty good – they controlled it on both sides against both Penn St and Minn. Not sure what happened in their game against Rutgers but they did have a virus going through the team and seemed to wear out in second half. Iowa hasn’t looked as good at the line of scrimmage and I think Illinois has the advantage here. Illinois hasn’t given more than 24 in a conf game and are now playing a team that is one of the worst offenses in the conference. The bye also helps Illinois as if you look at the 2 games with extra time to prep they won as underdogs – opener against Neb and off the bye against Penn St. I think Iowa will probably find a way to win this one but I see a slugfest and a tight game and wouldn’t be surprised if Illinois won.
Prediction: Iowa by 3
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Iowa – We are definitely at a point in the season where teams are who they are – meaning Iowa just isn’t good on offense. I took them last week as I expected them to have one of their better offensive games and pt wise they did with 27 but still only ran for 71 yds and had a couple passes that could have been picked. Minn outgained them by over 130 yds. Iowa has only ran for over 100 yds in 3 of their last 6 games – their off line just hasn’t played very well. Padilla looked ok last week and I think he is probably a better option than Petras however he did have a couple bad throws he got away with. I don’t think it matters who starts this week but it looks like Padilla will. Iowa still has a good defense but they have not looked like the dominate def they were early on. They have given up over 350 yds in 3 of the past 4 games (and would have been 4 of 5 if Clifford didn’t leave hurt). They also have more than 1 takeaway in 1 of the last 4 (two of those they had 0). Their def line hasn’t looked great and I have felt they haven’t really controlled the line of scrimmage and the def is second to last in sacks in conf games. Now they play a team that is pretty good at the line of scrimmage on both sides, doesn’t turn the ball over, and can match them with field position.
Outlook – I mentioned in the initial write up I was surprised at this line – I would put this out at 7 or 8 and even with that I would look at Illinois. I don’t think Iowa is that great of a team – solid of course but not a team to lay 12 pts - if you just look at the Northwestern game that is good indication. They couldn’t put that team away and ended up getting outgained and only winning by 5 – Northwestern is not a good team. The common opponents I mentioned above all show Illinois played them better than Iowa – the only one I didn’t mention was Wisc and they both got drilled in that one – stats look a lot better for Iowa in that one but neither team was in that game. The key for me in this game is the line of scrimmage – Illinois is actually pretty good – they controlled it on both sides against both Penn St and Minn. Not sure what happened in their game against Rutgers but they did have a virus going through the team and seemed to wear out in second half. Iowa hasn’t looked as good at the line of scrimmage and I think Illinois has the advantage here. Illinois hasn’t given more than 24 in a conf game and are now playing a team that is one of the worst offenses in the conference. The bye also helps Illinois as if you look at the 2 games with extra time to prep they won as underdogs – opener against Neb and off the bye against Penn St. I think Iowa will probably find a way to win this one but I see a slugfest and a tight game and wouldn’t be surprised if Illinois won.
Thanks - it was a good call on the line movement but only the game will tell if it is a good call on the under. Still could go over with the wind but with both teams running the ball more and high winds it was worth the play.
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@Freddy66
Thanks - it was a good call on the line movement but only the game will tell if it is a good call on the under. Still could go over with the wind but with both teams running the ball more and high winds it was worth the play.
Penn St - Rutgers - Penn St had several players miss practice yesterday because of a virus - they listed 6 players. They look a little banged up and will probably be without their starting center this week. Clifford also took a lot of hits last week. Rutgers was without their top 3 linebackers last week - no update on them I can find but IU is so bad it didn't matter. Penn St is having a disappointing year and now off a tough loss - Rutgers will come in with energy. This would be a tough take on Penn St with everything going on - it is Senior Day so that might help otherwise I would probably take Rutgers.
Mich - MD - on paper this looks like a terrible matchup for MD. Michigan can run the ball, pressure the QB with their def line, and has done pretty well against the pass. This is a terrible situation play though. Off a tough physical win on the road with the monster matchup next week against Ohio St this game could be tricky. MD does have some talent and playing at home. I think the situation makes it a tough play on Mich. They are clearly better and should control the game but the emotions of college football can be tricky
Minn-IU - IU is just a disaster. This line almost appears too obvious. If Penix is ruled out then Minn is probably a solid play. Penix playing is the only thing that might energize this team. Minn off 2 loses and still in the mix to win the west will show up and they are a team that won't beat themselves..
good luck to everyone this week
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Couple comments on other games
Penn St - Rutgers - Penn St had several players miss practice yesterday because of a virus - they listed 6 players. They look a little banged up and will probably be without their starting center this week. Clifford also took a lot of hits last week. Rutgers was without their top 3 linebackers last week - no update on them I can find but IU is so bad it didn't matter. Penn St is having a disappointing year and now off a tough loss - Rutgers will come in with energy. This would be a tough take on Penn St with everything going on - it is Senior Day so that might help otherwise I would probably take Rutgers.
Mich - MD - on paper this looks like a terrible matchup for MD. Michigan can run the ball, pressure the QB with their def line, and has done pretty well against the pass. This is a terrible situation play though. Off a tough physical win on the road with the monster matchup next week against Ohio St this game could be tricky. MD does have some talent and playing at home. I think the situation makes it a tough play on Mich. They are clearly better and should control the game but the emotions of college football can be tricky
Minn-IU - IU is just a disaster. This line almost appears too obvious. If Penix is ruled out then Minn is probably a solid play. Penix playing is the only thing that might energize this team. Minn off 2 loses and still in the mix to win the west will show up and they are a team that won't beat themselves..
MSU fan here. I agree OSU will score pretty much at will in this one. I expect the OSU D will be especially pumped to shut down Walker as well. He is a truly talented back who runs behind a very average Oline which makes his numbers even more amazing. The only chance this game is less than a 21 pt OSU win is if they turn it over a lot. MSU is an incredibly overachieving bunch who play very hard. Mel Tucker is a great coach but this team is a couple years away yet from really challenging the Buckeyes.
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@CFBLMONSTER
MSU fan here. I agree OSU will score pretty much at will in this one. I expect the OSU D will be especially pumped to shut down Walker as well. He is a truly talented back who runs behind a very average Oline which makes his numbers even more amazing. The only chance this game is less than a 21 pt OSU win is if they turn it over a lot. MSU is an incredibly overachieving bunch who play very hard. Mel Tucker is a great coach but this team is a couple years away yet from really challenging the Buckeyes.
don't these games invariably end up 49-24 or something close to that? I mean OHS against good B10 opponent...... seems like the losing team does get a decent amount of points.
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on the Ohio state game,
don't these games invariably end up 49-24 or something close to that? I mean OHS against good B10 opponent...... seems like the losing team does get a decent amount of points.
I agree - Neb isn’t far off and I have thought the criticism of Martinez is ridiculous. His off line is not good - on pass protection they have a 27 rating in PFF - this is awful and by far the worst in conf yet he has created plays. Some call him a terrible QB - just not accurate. As a drop back passer he he is below avg but when u factor in his ability to create he is still one of the better QBs in the conf. He will have a tough time this week. Good luck
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@jimrockford22
I agree - Neb isn’t far off and I have thought the criticism of Martinez is ridiculous. His off line is not good - on pass protection they have a 27 rating in PFF - this is awful and by far the worst in conf yet he has created plays. Some call him a terrible QB - just not accurate. As a drop back passer he he is below avg but when u factor in his ability to create he is still one of the better QBs in the conf. He will have a tough time this week. Good luck
5* Ohio St – Mich St FH over 34.5 – Ohio St is a very good first half team. I think teams struggle to adjust to their speed and have had several games where they basically score on every first half possession. I think each team can get 7 possessions and I do think State can score. Reason I rate the FH higher is the only way I see the game going under is if Ohio st gets up and slows down in the second half. Look for a lot points – similar to last week. Prediction: 52 pts
I'm going big here. Hopefully Mich St helps with a few points!
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Quote Originally Posted by CFBLMONSTER:
5* Ohio St – Mich St FH over 34.5 – Ohio St is a very good first half team. I think teams struggle to adjust to their speed and have had several games where they basically score on every first half possession. I think each team can get 7 possessions and I do think State can score. Reason I rate the FH higher is the only way I see the game going under is if Ohio st gets up and slows down in the second half. Look for a lot points – similar to last week. Prediction: 52 pts
I'm going big here. Hopefully Mich St helps with a few points!
I already bet Ohio st FH over. I'm thinking about doing a small 4 team parley .. Ohio st FH, Wisconsin FH, minn FH and army FH maybe .. thank you again for your help ;)
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@CFBLMONSTER
I already bet Ohio st FH over. I'm thinking about doing a small 4 team parley .. Ohio st FH, Wisconsin FH, minn FH and army FH maybe .. thank you again for your help ;)
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