Week 14 - Good matchups

+2 UNITS earned last week 

Grabbing early the following all for a HALF U unless otherwise stated and might add to total as week progresses ......

Okie St - Colorado Over 63.5

Miss St - Ole Miss Over 61.5

GTECH +19.5 x 1U

Kansas ML

UNDER Michigan 43.5

S.Carolina +3 and might go ML later in the week

B.C -3.5 x 1U

Indiana -27.5

Texas UNDER 48.5 will be TEASED  by me likely so will save for my TEASERS that I will cobble together at some point

Texas -5.5 

.....will add likely

GL!    I will be on Indiana as well.   After the debacle against OSU, the perception of traditional doormat IU will have to be overcome.  A dominating 40+plus point win should demonstrate to the CFP committee that they still belong...

Good luck Last.  

Thanks Longhorn 

Maybe I should have pressed more on that number but I am clawing back and prefer to push on totals instead

D-Town 

Notes in matchups (Had written them in Week #13 thread):

- Beavers @ Boise and no weather effect that I can see ..... Beavers need one more win to get bowl eligible and I expect a major effort in their last game of the season so the TOTAL is probably what I will dissect here 

-consider Boise to be cautious in one sense of not wishing to have injuries going into MW Championship to solidify their stamp in the Playoffs @#4

- watching for LINE # and TOTAL 

Okie St @ Colorado

-how high will this total be? NOT HIGH ENOUGH as they will both play loosey goosey as Buffs have some Heisman considerations for a couple of their players and should put up over 40 themselves easily

-looked ahead to weather and see no issues

Miss St @ Rebels

-Ole Miss needs style points and won't have their top RB next week but this Miss St defense is super bad and I expect a lot of points from the Rebs.

-can Miss St score 20 on the Rebs even if their defense is greatly inspired? MAYBE and 23-26 would likely be the limit if not the best because, Miss St put up 31 on a decent defense of Georgia, but who are not as strong as Rebs can be

GTECH @ Georgia

- Bulldogs have found their in state opponents to be a tough game the last couple.... and this is the best GTECH team in a while with plenty of balance on both sides of the ball and some nice skill

-motivation will be high for both teams as Georgia sees a good path to make Final Four if positioned as they think they might on the TEXAS side of the bracket but must keep winning 

Michigan @ Buckeyes 

-its time for a stomp and this will be personal for Ryan Day who I am sure has nothing against the former OC of Wolverines and now coach, but we are going to see them exorcise some demons and I think it might come in the form of the QB's running legs and deep passes on play action 

-not sure how many points Michigan will get because on pass downs, they will pin their ears back and be effective and I think the DC game plan will be to contain the run in the first half and put things into the hands of Wolverines QB and that will not end well

SC @ Clemson

- will likely side with SC as I see a better defense, O-line issues for Clemson vs a strong SC dee line

KU @ Baylor

- Jayhawks have the steamroller going on offense and defense....and don't see that changing much here

Vols @ Vandy

-should  be an easy win for Vols BUT ....this plucky Vandy team could cover due to Vols bonehead playcalling on offense at times

Pitt @ B.C.

-B.C. on a roll and playing well > revenge game from last year.....PITT seems to have given up on NAZZ since the loss 

Purdue @ Indiana

-Indiana will stomp here and get the mojo back quickly....watched Purdue last week 

Texas @ TexAm

-this will be a test for both and I like the UNDER in this one if I see 45 or higher > with AM not having Moss as a two headed run force, Texas will contain both QB and run game and dare AM to throw against one of the best secondaries in college

-strong lean with Texas on the side here in a 24-10 type of win

Pitt @ B.C.

-B.C. on a roll and playing well > revenge game from last year.....PITT seems to have given up on NAZZ since the loss 

Nothing but respect for you, your communication and your good vibes.   Allow me to comment on this statement as I have seen many people think this way.  With the transfer portal, its very easy to get out of a mess.   If that is the case for some of the Pitt players they need to fight harder to elevate their tape for making a better move next year.  Good players that want out will not give up unless their A bad personality guy.  Some past Pitt players have wanted out and have transferred out in recent seasons.  If they are future applicants for new gigs they are going to have to show tape on who they are.

As far as Pitt?  One of my top tier plays this week.  You could argue against Virginia but the Pitt schedule the last 4 weeks is the reason they are having struggles.  Add to that since their early season success the lines became too much as well.  This is the best Pitt line is weeks.  I dont think the give up will be seen here. 

Just my thoughts to you my good man 

Interesting and thanks Spottie....but here we go, on opposite sides 

My play is on B.C. more than it is a fade of Pitt. But concerning Pitt, I find it ironic that their only win on the road is versus another team that started strongly like Pitt and then faded in the cooler football weather (Cincy!) when talent is more apt to strut their stuff with athletic pedigree that gets better with time. One just has to watch the Big10 top 5 teams to see this year after year.

B.C. on the other side, has a motivated squad recently demonstrating so with a home win over a decent Big 10 Sparty team....a 6 pt loss on the road to a good SEC team in Missouri and also recently almost beating a peaking Louisville Cardinals team who just demolished the very same team they are playing this weekend and they get their homefield like they were on vs that very same Louisville team. 

I would prefer -3 but I see no indication that because Pitt is getting points that they will embrace their underdog status and be pissed off enough to overcome a good B.C. team who likes playing hard at home field..... Pitt was getting +7.5 for most of last week vs the Cardinals and did not care in the game. 

Their bowl status is safe so I suspect they don't have a lot of reason to be motivated this week. B.C. on the other hand, like their home crowd a lot.

What else do you like Spottie? Are you taking Purdue + pts? Do you like the GTECH line vs Georgia in their rivalry?

Sheesh I’ll get back to you I had a bunch typed out and one wrong click and it got erased 

I’ll type out my teams and comment back during the week. 

Purdue +30.5

UTSA +7.5

Sparty -1

Middle Tenn +9.5

Pitt +5

San Diego St +3 remember how bad Air Force was .  Nothing has changed to make them a road chalk. 

Houston+13.5 waiting for +14.  All these early lines that were easy are gone.  Houston can’t win this year but they can cover. Looks easy for BYU I think -14 is reasonable for the dog. 

Nevada +18.5 rivals and UNLV all their easy covers have disappeared.  It’s just too many points.

Florida St+ 15.5 I don’t know how but after last week win it’s too many not to try. 

USC +7.5 

Notre Dame has abused college football being independent.  What a schedule.

NC St+3.5 nothing warrants UNC to be a favorite this season. 

Maryland +25 here we go again with Penn St laying over 4 scores.  Penn St plays a style that doesn’t support big scoring unless the other team turns it over or goes 3 and out.  As long as Maryland doesn’t play like a MAC team here they should be okay. 

Cal+13.5 SMU has the linesmaker’s attention this is not a destruction. 

Arizona+8 at home in this rivalry it’s too many. 

forgot James Madison -3.5.  Show me where Marshall has beaten a credible team this season?  All their wins are against below .500 teams and this line is only +3.5 against an elite conference team.  

Did anyone see Purdue not give up last week?  
Does anyone know what is ahead for Indiana?  Indians has  one loss and being in the B10 that is enough to make the bracket.  I want Indy to throw away this game look conservative and trashy.  If this happens it creates questions and better lines when they make it in.  They just have to win to make it in. 

Purdue gave me hope last week that they can actually play.  Purdue isn’t close to being good.  This game and situation could be a nice fit for them.  If I was Indy I would play a half get up 24-0 and shut it down.  Too much at risk for a team with no championship history. 2nd half play is better than +30 but I believe Purdue cashes all tickets except 1st half. 

What if I told you Notre Dame's Strength of schedule was harder than Georgia's would you believe me?  

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2007-01-09  Notre Dame is too legit to quit on and their body of work in dominating middling (not just weak teams) is commendable since the brainfart loss to NIU and I therefore, hold them in TOP 4 esteem in my personal rankings....they are built to handle any offense and can move the ball up the field not like Ohio St but like the Buffalo Bills with a Riley Leonard QB who plays a lot like Josh Allen if his team needs him to get 9 yds or more or a tough goal line situation

I don’t care about Georgia.  I have visions of what Notre Dane could be in for this week.  USC is well coached and a home dog in this rivalry.  Notre Dame has not proven much to me this season.  The one certainty is they can cover big lines against trash! 

Notre dame was -7 AT Purdue and only -7 at home to Louisville.  It’s not only strength of schedule it’s the simple and easy lines.  THIS is the most difficult test since week 1 and in that game they were a dog. 

Its funny how you changed your tune on USC to finally respect them when I was talking them up early in the season 

Sometimes, you need a little more time to come around Spottie and there were a couple more through the season but you are correct, ND @ USC is no easy game.

I don't think I took a side with ND this week but I certainly handled the -14 easily last week  

I am looking at now who I am going to tease up or down  7pts with one key confirmed and that is an UNDER on the TEXAS-TEXASAM total

@Last2thirst

 That’s because when you were talking about USC they weren’t a +7 home dog.  They were a well respected -6 to home dog Michigan team.  Completely differlines.  That why USC is of value to me this week.  It’s not the team.  We have seen all the teams play.  I’m trying to find the best lines and let the on the field stuff happen as it does.  The teams have a range of expectations.  +7 for USC f

its within my expectations.  Will it cash?  That’s the question. 

Indiana offense hasn't looked consistently good for awhile.

Maybe feel the,pressure

I agree on wanting to run up score

@spottie2935

 This is a rivalry game.   So I guess Purdue will play hard.  But the game is in Bloomington.   Indiana was humiliated last week, with 14 points giving away  with special teams.   Cignetti will leave nothing to chance.  He will ask his D for a shut out and will keep the starters in well into the 4th quarter and target 50.  These programs have traditionally targeted the same same caliber of athlete.   Call me delusional, as a homer, but I think the line is justified and the Hoosiers will roll, win and cover.

Nice thread 

Good post Longhorn  .... the line matters for Spottie shopping and he can be a deadly as a square too so I definitely understand his perspective......  but I agree with your point of view for both Texas and Indiana.... they need to solidify and show they are peaking to each other or on that inclining plane of improvement and not regression.

This matters for the 30+ days they will have to individually deal with the mental side of going into the temporary 'off season' preparation for playoffs. I coached across Canada top level club teams and before nationals, I wanted badly for our 4th -8th ranked team to be peaking and feeling good in those last couple of matches (won nationals 2x as a 'dog team) before we had a break to prepare for nationals in the spring. It made practices in preparation better....it allowed some players to feel the value of getting in the weight room and other intense plyometrics we did to maximize their verticals or speed going into Nationals. I had my worst results in the past 2-3 decades when the players had a poor finish in the final game or two games and subsequent practices and prep was 'spottie' at best (no pun intended )

Fuse, the comment is much appreciated but understand it's the 'people who come in here' who really make a nice thread

Gl this week